11-14-19 European Weekly Analysis

11-14-19 European Weekly Analysis

Good Evening!  Here is your latest European Weekly Analysis.  Have a blessed day!  -Matt HD Link (11-14-19 EWA) Newest European Weeklies came in warm for weeks 3, 4, and 5.  This seems to be a common theme for the EPS weekly as it consistently hints at a warm week 3, 4, and 5.  As stated from our previous reports, we are anticipating a colder than normal December and do not agree with the EPS weeklies.  Our research continues to suggest that we should see increased midlatitude blocking and therefore colder temperatures across the eastern US.  Our thoughts on a colder…
Read More
11-14-19 Long-range: Despite model data our thoughts are durable cold looms ahead. Details here. M.

11-14-19 Long-range: Despite model data our thoughts are durable cold looms ahead. Details here. M.

Today's video: https://youtu.be/NeS8EZgAcVc PDF report (click link to the right to open in HD): 11-14-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Quiet pattern for much of the CONUS in the week 1 period.  We anticipate the further into week 2 we go the more potent impacts from the –NAO will become. This is one of the reasons we remain much cooler than the EPS. With the MJO working back into 8-1-2 and slowing, we believe the –AAM will become a bigger influencer with cooler risks in the NE. Major differences for both temperatures and precipitation in week 2. We believe the EPS…
Read More
Thursday Weather Package

Thursday Weather Package

Good morning!  Here are the updated 7-day forecasts. Temperatures have been running 25º colder than normal over the past couple of days, with most of the nation averaging out as the coldest November 13th ever recorded.  Meanwhile, California is dealing with near record heat.   Temperatures from normal yesterday.  Not much to track for our weather other than a slow temperature climb, and a few showers Sunday (mainly west), then best shower chances Monday night-Tuesday night next week.  This is a minor disturbance with limited moisture, so we expect 0.25" or less.  A few areas won't see any rain.  …
Read More
11-14-19 Illinois: Dry through Saturday…discussing pattern into next week. N.

11-14-19 Illinois: Dry through Saturday…discussing pattern into next week. N.

Video: http://youtu.be/PDtF9F93qHA?hd=1 From a record snow (for some) to record cold (everyone), this is a remarkable weather week.  November 12-13th time-period has averaged out to be the coldest in that period we have ever seen out of the past 127 years of records!!  There were many areas in the South that got colder than ever experienced all of last winter.....and it's barely mid-November!!  The Gulf coast had a freeze a whole month ahead of normal.   Wind forecast over the next 4 days: Forecast precipitation over the next 7 days.  We feel 0.10 - 0.25" will be the general precipitation…
Read More
11-14-19 Indiana: Dry through the weekend & slowly warming…discussing pattern through next week. N.

11-14-19 Indiana: Dry through the weekend & slowly warming…discussing pattern through next week. N.

Video: http://youtu.be/txrleYYlaXA?hd=1 From a record snow to record cold, this is a remarkable weather week.  November 12-13th time-period averaged out to be the coldest in that period we have ever seen out of the past 127 years of records!!  There were many areas in the South that got colder than ever experienced all of last winter.....and it's barely mid-November!!  The Gulf coast had a freeze a whole month ahead of normal.   Wind forecast over the next 4 days: Next 7 days of precipitation.  Watch today's video for more details looking through next week.   Temperatures over the next 10…
Read More
11-13-19 Long-range: Discussing colder risks to the Dec forecast & how this is not 2018. M.

11-13-19 Long-range: Discussing colder risks to the Dec forecast & how this is not 2018. M.

Today's video: https://youtu.be/iXwuzGgTXV0 PDF report (click link to the right to open in HD): 11-13-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Widespread record cold again this morning – many stations breaking all time November cold records. Warmer risks in week 2 look to be rather transient. Initially some warmth is possible in the Central US (strong Pacific Jet/MJO Phase 8) with cooler risks behind storm systems. We anticipate the further into week 2 we go for a more potent –NAO to become likely. For this reason we have cooled more of the Midwest for week 2.  With the MJO working back into…
Read More
Wednesday Weather Package

Wednesday Weather Package

Good morning!  Here are the updated 7-day forecasts. Another morning of widespread record-breaking temperatures.   A wave of snow showers will work across central Iowa, northern Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan this afternoon through tonight.  Much of the area will miss out.   Total precipitation over the next week remains quite limited across the area.   Weeks 1 and 2 temperatures from normal: Iowa Video: http://youtu.be/TAZl0Mv370w?hd=1 Illinois Video: http://youtu.be/9aJ4VEiEdUk?hd=1 Indiana Video: http://youtu.be/mQKDs0me9ec?hd=1 Ohio Video: http://youtu.be/Cih888UtFyw?hd=1
Read More