Today’s Video:
Good Tuesday morning everyone! Quiet weather across the area to start the day and other than a very isolated pop up shower this afternoon in the Dakotas, it will be a very nice day with warm temperatures.
Energy will work into the SW SD region and start to fire scattered rain and storms late this evening and into the overnight hours associated with a low pressure system that will begin to develop tomorrow.
As instability builds tomorrow and the system starts to push off to the east, the coverage of rain and storms will likely expand to 60-65% coverage. The heaviest rain likely occurs near the center of the low pressure in South Dakota, but storms into North Dakota likely also develop.
Disagreements remain about where exactly the heaviest rain fall as this low pressure system pushes off to the east. We believe the heaviest rain likely develops near the center of the low, so we target areas highlighted in purple for the best chance of 0.75-1.5″ with localized higher totals through Friday.
We will need to watch for another light to moderate rain chance along a front into Sunday/Monday which will usher in much cooler weather for next week. Overall, here’s a look at the total rainfall from the European and the GFS the next 7 days:
A bit of a warm-up possible after the upper-level low passes late this week in the Western Dakotas, but very cool daytime highs possible under the low with rain on Thursday and Friday for Minnesota. However, night time lows stay relatively warm as clouds and rain decrease overnight cooling.
Here’s a look at dew point temperatures over the next 4 days:
Here’s a look at wind speeds over the next 4 days:
The frontal system that passes late this weekend into early next week will usher in a cool shot of air – and drier weather likely for the first part of next week. You can see this reflected in our week 2 outlook with below normal temperatures for the region – but drier conditions than the next several days.
If you have any questions, do not hesitate to reach out via [email protected]. Have a great day!