Key Points – Thursday, June 29, 2017:
Synopsis: Good Thursday morning! Today we discuss the additional storm development from west to east over the next 2-3 days, we can’t rule out strong storms developing here as well in some locations and localized heavy rainfall possible. We begin to get under a classic northwest flow starting next week, which models typically do very poorly with at this distance when looking at rainfall totals and storm coverage…keep that in mind. If you have any questions please let us know, have a blessed day!
Current Radar:
Simulated radar through today…watching for storm development to increase in coverage form west to east mainly north of I-70 by early afternoon…watching intently on that storm cluster heading east, this could produce strong storms across Indiana into Ohio further east than what the risk is below.
Latest strong storm outlook…we feel like the slight risk needs shifted further east across north central Indiana and western Ohio similar to what it was yesterday.
Overnight into Friday and into very Saturday morning we need to watch for additional scattered storm development at ~50% coverage from west to east…some may strong at times. Once again, locations east across Ohio will have more dry time here.
On the day on Saturday we see storms fire to the east as the cold front pushes east…high pressure falls in behind this leading into a very nice day on Sunday.
Rainfall guidance over the next 60 hours…locations north of I-70 the forecast will be 1-3″ with isolated higher amounts on the table…locations further south will see scattered 1-3″ nearly the River, however, more locations like to stay drier here with little to no rain expected.
Latest look at the wind forecast over the next 4 days:
Glancing at temperature through the weekend:
Dew points from normal here as well show a much more comfortable “feel” settling in:
Getting into next week, and we will touch on this more as we get closer…we see a classic “northwest flow” pattern move across the Midwest. Which, if we know anything about this kind of pattern, models struggling immensely with rainfall totals and simulated radar. In short, we expect multiple shower and storm chances to be possible…will need to fine-tune.
Rainfall over the next 10 days from the latest GFS model…the reason being we are using this model is because it captures the heavy rainfall risks associate with the northwest flow very well..the European doesn’t have a solid handle on this flow right now.
Confidence:
- Above average confidence additional storms will fire mainly north of I-70 today from west to east starting early afternoon, some being strong possible.
- Average confidence in the timing of additional storms Friday into Saturday from west to east…some locations get in on the rains, while others just barely miss out.
- Increasing confidence models are underplaying storm coverage next week as we get under a northwest flow.
- Average confidence of temperatures seasonal to slightly warmer into next week.
Video (8 min):