3-17-19 Week Ahead Outlook: Cooler pattern shifts towards warmer and wetter risks to end March. I.

3-17-19 Week Ahead Outlook: Cooler pattern shifts towards warmer and wetter risks to end March. I.

For questions locally please reach out to wxops@bamwx.com! Have a great rest of your weekend! -Isaac Temperature Discussion: The week 1 period can be characterized as a transition period with multiple moving parts at play: The Western US remaining above normal regarding temperatures due to impacts from stout +PNA signals (Western US ridging), the Great Plains beginning to moderate from the cold that has firmly held its grasp through the month, and lingering cold in the Eastern/Southern US with a corresponding upper-level trough digging into the region. A stronger connection between the ocean and atmosphere (lack of influences from a…
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3-14-19 Long-range: Updated data & research on a potential pattern moderation late March into April. K.

3-14-19 Long-range: Updated data & research on a potential pattern moderation late March into April. K.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l13bPLzkWM8&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Slides (click link below to open in HD): 3-14-19 Long-Range Analysis Images: Key Points: Blizzard conditions continue in parts of the Northern Plains this morning. Widespread strong winds across the Ag Belt today associated with the record strong long pressure system in the Central Plains.  The SPC has issued and enhanced risk of Severe Weather for parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley areas today. Favorable upper/lower level jet streams favor an increased risk for severe weather. Check out local updates for more detailed information on the severe weather risk.  Colder and drier pattern follows this…
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3-11-19 Long-range: Strong system to move thru the central US this week…breaking down updated April forecasts today as well. M.

3-11-19 Long-range: Strong system to move thru the central US this week…breaking down updated April forecasts today as well. M.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGygX2T3Cpg&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Slides (click link below to open in HD): 3-11-19 Long-Range Analysis Images: Key Points: If we were to end March today, we would be the coldest month on record by about a whole degree. The main focus this week will be mid-week with a very robust low pressure system targeted to make its way into the central US…bringing more blizzard-like conditions to the northern Plains, strong storms to the South and very warm conditions to the eastern third of the Country for a time. Beyond this system we definitely look to dry things out where we’ve…
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3-10-19 Week Ahead Outlook: Moderation in the East followed by additional cold and suppressed precipitation for week 2. I.

3-10-19 Week Ahead Outlook: Moderation in the East followed by additional cold and suppressed precipitation for week 2. I.

For questions locally please reach out to wxops@bamwx.com! Have a great rest of your weekend! -Isaac Temperature Discussion: The Mississippi River will likely be the dividing line between below/above normal anomalies to the west/east respectively during the week 1 period. This is definitely a substantial reprieve from the recent cold, at least eastern locations, as the –EPO signals have since weakened and upper-level heights have increased across the Eastern US, leading to a period of moderation. GWO phase 8 analogs (dropping AAM), –EAMT tendencies, an active Bering Sea (trough west/ridge east scenario) and storm-induced warmth out ahead of the mid-week’s…
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3-7-19 Long-range: Staying very active this weekend into next week…highlighting the late March/early April pattern evolution. K.

3-7-19 Long-range: Staying very active this weekend into next week…highlighting the late March/early April pattern evolution. K.

***No updated long-range video analysis today as the pattern continues to progress moving forward pretty much spot on with how we've mentioned all week. Below is yesterday's video to highlight all that we've discussed this make. However, please make sure to check out the updated slides below, which also includes our updated thoughts on how the pattern progresses late March into early April. Have a blessed day -Kirk Yesterday's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0teDEFabkY&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Slides (click link to open in HD): 3-7-19 Long-Range Analysis Images: Key Points: Weak system brings light snow for parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley today.  Warmer…
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3-4-19 Long-range: Record cold to start off the week…sharing latest research on mid-to-late March pattern moderation potential. K.

3-4-19 Long-range: Record cold to start off the week…sharing latest research on mid-to-late March pattern moderation potential. K.

Today's video: http://youtu.be/JW2_BRGrWWY?hd=1 PDF Slides (click link below to open in higher definition): 3-4-19 Long-Range Analysis Images: Key Points: Will need to watch a clipper system on Thursday that could drop snow across the Midwest into the Ohio Valley. Discrepancies remain between data, so be sure to stay tuned to local updates. A stronger storm will develop this weekend and pump warmer air into the Eastern US. Many areas will see a big swing in temperatures this week from brutally cold today to more mild temperatures this weekend. Widespread record cold temperature this morning for a large swath of the…
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3-3-19 Week Ahead Outlook: Widespread cold for much of the nation will be followed by moderation/storminess in the east heading into week 2. I.

3-3-19 Week Ahead Outlook: Widespread cold for much of the nation will be followed by moderation/storminess in the east heading into week 2. I.

For questions locally please reach out to wxops@bamwx.com! Have a great evening and upcoming week! -Isaac Temperature Discussion: The week 1 period will likely be some of the coldest temperatures we have seen for the beginning of March on record with a stout upper-level trough over the northern/northeastern US. Look for widespread temperature departures for the week to end up 20-25ºF below normal across a majority of the Great Plains while wind chills in the Dakotas dip below -40ºF at times early in the period. Heating demand is expected to be extremely above normal (reminisce of January standards) and the…
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2-28-19 Long-range: Breaking down our final March forecast today and the risks heading into meteorological spring. M.

2-28-19 Long-range: Breaking down our final March forecast today and the risks heading into meteorological spring. M.

Today's video: https://youtu.be/2J47zWvfNEE PDF slides (click link below to open in HD): 2-28-19 Long-Range Analysis Images: Key Points: Winter Storm likely on Sunday from the Plains to the Ohio Valley into the Northeastern US. Some areas could pick up a decent swath of accumulating snow. Be sure to stay tuned to local updates for more details.  Very cold air will dive into the US next week and lead to widespread record cold temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. This cold will also suppress precipitation to the south so a drier period is possible briefly following the Sunday system.  However, as you can…
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2-25-19 Long Range: Potential record heating demand next 14 days. Analyzing when cold breaks down here. B.

2-25-19 Long Range: Potential record heating demand next 14 days. Analyzing when cold breaks down here. B.

Today's Video:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=00MaY_Vhu-Y&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF slides (click link below to open in HD): 2-25 Long-Range Analysis Forecast Blurb:  Drier pattern over the next week as colder air begins to overwhelm the country and suppress moisture. The northern stream will be active so clipper activity from the Pacific Northwest into the Western Plains will continue.  Strong storm systems won’t likely pick back up until the pattern begins to relax with perhaps an increased wintry threat late the 1st week of March with increasing rain/severe risks in the second week of March.  Widespread well below normal temperatures this week and next week as…
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2-24-19 Week Ahead Outlook: High heating demand expected, especially into early March, as cold infiltrates the country. I.

2-24-19 Week Ahead Outlook: High heating demand expected, especially into early March, as cold infiltrates the country. I.

For questions locally please reach out to wxops@bamwx.com! Have a great evening! -Isaac Temperature Discussion: Colder temperature anomalies are expected to dominate the Central Plains and Pacific Northwest during the week 1 timeframe with the cold bleeding eastward into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions as a result of a stout ridge positioned over Alaska (-EPO signals) and troughing draped over the northern tier of the country. Also, watch for some over-the-top cold in the Northeastern US due to a persevering east-based –NAO (Scandinavian Block). Higher heights draped across the Southeastern US remains and will keep the only sliver…
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