9-20-19 Long-range: Discussing lengthy warmth ahead, excessive rainfall risks + updated weeks 3/4 / October forecasts. M.

9-20-19 Long-range: Discussing lengthy warmth ahead, excessive rainfall risks + updated weeks 3/4 / October forecasts. M.

Don't forget to sign-up for our official client winter webinar Wed, Oct 9th at 11amET here! BAMwx.com/client-webinar/ Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNILHwAEFEs&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Report (click link to the right to open in HD): 9-20-19 Long range analysis Key Points: Notable warmth this week in the Central US with most of the Ag Belt averaging 5 – 8F above normal.  Keeping an eye on the remnants of Tropical Storm Imelda that brought up to 32”+ of rain in Texas and will bring rain up into the Eastern Plains/Midwest later this week. Any cold fronts in the next week or two look to have…
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*Special Oct Rainfall Outlook Update. Major Rains Possible. Harvest Delays?*

*Special Oct Rainfall Outlook Update. Major Rains Possible. Harvest Delays?*

*Special Oct Rainfall Outlook Update. Major Rains Possible. Harvest Delays?* This afternoon ive been looking over some of our analogs that involve a similar MJO pattern to 2019 aka tropical forcing. One thing im growing increasingly concerned with is the possibility that MJO can stall out in phase 1 which has a statistically high correlation to very wet weather here in the Midwest in October. This pattern is actually somewhat very similar to Oct 2018. What catches my attention is these particular phases of the MJO are also notorious for Atlantic tropical activity and all it takes is 1 storm…
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*Preliminary first take on Winter 19-20*

*Preliminary first take on Winter 19-20* Today we wanted to share with you what our current research is telling us for the upcoming Winter season. As always outlooks in September are largely up for grabs but the things we look at today are more from a historical analog stand point. Please be sure to register for the Winter outlook webinar exclusive to paying clients Wed Oct 9th 11am EDT. Register here: https://bamwx.com/client-webinar/ Click here for the PDF of our Prelim Winter 19-20.
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9-17-19 Long-range: Warm signal persists ahead into late Sept…pattern turning more active as well? Latest details here. K.

9-17-19 Long-range: Warm signal persists ahead into late Sept…pattern turning more active as well? Latest details here. K.

***No updated video today...we've been working full-steam ahead on winter research this morning and will be sending out a separate update later today on our lates findings for review. Have a blessed day! -Kirk PDF Report (click link to the right to open in HD): 9-17-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Major warmth this week in the Central US with most of the Ag Belt averaging 8 – 12F above normal.  Keeping an eye on a tropical disturbance that will bring rain into Texas and up into the Eastern Plains later this week.  Any cold fronts in the next week or…
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9-15-19 Week Ahead Outlook:  Major warmth ahead.  MG.

9-15-19 Week Ahead Outlook: Major warmth ahead. MG.

Good afternoon!  Here is your week ahead outlook!  Have a blessed day!  -Matt Temperatures: A stout central US ridge is expected during the week 1 time frame  which will allow for much above normal temperatures across much of the central US.  An upper level trough, currently making its way into the Pacific Northwest, will usher in cooler temperatures for the West Coast.  A trough is also expected to develop in the Atlantic Northeast which could allow for slightly cooler to normal temperatures across the US Northeast.  Both the GEFS and EPS are in good agreement with temperature pattern in the…
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9-13-19 Long-range: More heat in the short term. Latest details on tricky Week’s 3/4, conflicting pattern drivers into October. B.

9-13-19 Long-range: More heat in the short term. Latest details on tricky Week’s 3/4, conflicting pattern drivers into October. B.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJ2ZS-Woz_g&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): Friday-The-13th Long Range Key Points: Following today’s cold front warmth will rebuild Sunday and early next week with well above normal temperatures developing from the North-Central US into the Deep South. Days 2 – 7 will likely average 8-12F above normal for the majority of the Ag Belt. Continued dry conditions in the Ohio Valley combined with hot weather will quickly dry out soils. High temperatures will likely also continue to overachieve with the dry soils heating up faster. Appearing more likely that tropical activity will go out…
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9-10-19 Long-range: Warming up ahead…breaking down new, in-depth research on the late Sept into Oct pattern progression. K.

9-10-19 Long-range: Warming up ahead…breaking down new, in-depth research on the late Sept into Oct pattern progression. K.

Today's video (http://youtu.be/osKZKrtfCBY?hd=1): http://youtu.be/osKZKrtfCBY?hd=1 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): Link: 9-10-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Warmth builds from the south throughout this week with well above normal temperatures in the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions. Many areas get into the 90s this week. The Northern Plains generally stay seasonable to below normal in temperatures. Very wet in the week 1 period for the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest as ridging to the south pushes precipitation chances north. This will lead to dry conditions in the Ohio, Missouri and Tennessee Valley regions as well as the Deep South.…
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9-8-19 Weeks Ahead Outlook: Discussing Warmer Week 1 Temps, potential impacts of Pacific Typhoon.V.

9-8-19 Weeks Ahead Outlook: Discussing Warmer Week 1 Temps, potential impacts of Pacific Typhoon.V.

Good Sunday Afternoon! Here is our Weeks Ahead Outlook! Week 1: Week 1 looks to bring a ridge in the southeast US that will keep most of the E US warmer than average (our previously mentioned Sep 10 to 15 period for warmer temperatures is now Week 1). The Northern part of the US will stay cooler than normal due to that ridge not reaching as far north. We will be watching a trough sitting in the western US that should provide cooler than normal temperatures for much of the west coast . Going into week 2, we are still…
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9-6-19 Long-range: Breaking down the conflicting signals ahead…going against the grain w/ updated weeks 3/4 forecast. M.

9-6-19 Long-range: Breaking down the conflicting signals ahead…going against the grain w/ updated weeks 3/4 forecast. M.

Today's video (https://youtu.be/m6TseFHIBYg): https://youtu.be/m6TseFHIBYg PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): Link: 9-6-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Now Category 1 Hurricane Dorian is close to making landfall on the outer banks of North Carolina near Ocracoke.  Into early next week the cooler air that has settled in over the Northern US and Midwest will push out and conditions will warm up substantially from north to south. Warm up looks to be related to the MJO moving away from cooler phases and into the Equatorial Pacific which is a warm signal when combined with the –AAM state. This will…
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