12-10-19 Long-range: Updated week’s 3/4 forecast & expected model chaos ahead. M.

12-10-19 Long-range: Updated week’s 3/4 forecast & expected model chaos ahead. M.

Today's video: https://vimeo.com/378538243 PDF report (click link to the right to open in HD): 12-10-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: A few weak waves to track in the Midwest this week with some light snow chances.  Data hints that the system next week could bring snow chances to someone in the Midwest/Ohio/TN Valley. This is possible given brief period of a –AO.  The North Pacific continues to favor warmer risks for the week 2 period especially in the Eastern US.  A poleward shift of the jet is favored in week 2 which favors more mild Pacific air into the Eastern US. …
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12-8-19 Week Ahead Outlook

12-8-19 Week Ahead Outlook

Good afternoon!  Here is your latest Week Ahead Outlook.  Have a blessed day!  -Matt HD Link: 12-8-19 Week Ahead Outlook Temperatures: Week 1 will begin with warmer temperatures along the east coast with cold arctic air in place over much of the central US.  This arctic air will bleed into the east coast mid week behind a cold front.  Areas in the northern plains to east coast can remain on the cooler side of things in the week 1 period before another warm up out ahead of a storm system on Dec 14th – 17th .    Another shot of cold…
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12-6-19 Long-range: Updated weeks 3/4 forecast and growing confidence for a cold and stormy pattern. M.

12-6-19 Long-range: Updated weeks 3/4 forecast and growing confidence for a cold and stormy pattern. M.

Today's video: https://vimeo.com/377781840 PDF report (click link to the right to open in HD): 12-6-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Storm system early next week brings the next best chance of snow for the Northern Plains and rain in the TN Valley. Tropospheric polar vortex influence after the cold front early next week. This will bring a big blast of cold air to the Midwest. Widespread below zero temperatures in the Northern Plains.  Combination of MJO Phase 2, -AAM and location of the stratospheric Polar Vortex will favor Pacific blocking and cold air intrusions in week 2. Differences in the GEFS/EPS…
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New Email Format

Good afternoon, hoping all is well! You may have noticed a different format to our e-mail updates today...if not you will on Friday's forecasts. In an effort to limit the outside sharing of our daily updates, the e-mails will now direct you to the website for actual forecast content where you will have to log-in. If you have forgotten your password, click on the "Forgot your Password" button on the website log-in page or in the email itself, which will have you reset your password. Thank you for understanding, have a blessed day!  Here's where you click if you have forgot your password:
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12-4-19 Evening comments on long range pattern and growing colder risks. M.

12-4-19 Evening comments on long range pattern. M. The afternoon EPS data took a very big step in the direction of our thought process today esp. in the EPO region and Alaska. The model is setting up for a significant cold shot in the 16-20 day timeframe. I suspect this trend to continue and the EPS weeklies to reflect significantly colder changes VS Mondays run. Esp. given what we know with the vortex, MJO,SOI and frictional torque/-EPO. I wanted to share this today because it's just driving our points home and I would anticipate further colder adjustments in the EPS…
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12-3-19 Long-range: Discussing big modeled colder changes ahead & updated weeks 3/4 forecast. M.

12-3-19 Long-range: Discussing big modeled colder changes ahead & updated weeks 3/4 forecast. M.

Today's video: https://youtu.be/LyaoC2VGUyg PDF report (click link to the right to open in HD): 12-3-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Week 1 will be very quiet for most of the country. Weak cold fronts will favor cooler risks on the East Coast though warmth will build from west to east throughout the week. Overnight data has trended substantially colder in the week 2 period with a seemingly big win for the GEFS. Data suggests a potential tropospheric polar vortex influence after the cold front early next week. This will bring a big blast of cold air to the Midwest. The MJO…
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12-1-19 Week Ahead Outlook

12-1-19 Week Ahead Outlook

Good afternoon!  Here is your latest Week Ahead Outlook.  Have a blessed day!  -Matt HD Link: 12-1-19 Week Ahead Outlook Temperatures: Week 1 will be characterized by split flow with the northern jet bringing some cooler temperatures into parts of the eastern US with an eastern US trough.  Warmer air will begin to filter into much of the central US as more ridging builds across these areas with the northern jet pushing into Canada.    Warm air will continue to bleed east late in the week 1 period into the early week 2 period out ahead of a storm system next…
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11-29-19 New data comment. Colder risks via new EPS. M.

11-29-19 New data comment. Colder risks via new EPS. M. Morning EPS took a big step towards Bamwx.com long standing idea. EPS is clueless with its MJO forecast always has a day 15 phase 3 and never comes around. Ideas from morning note slide have merit and if you missed that you need to go back and look.  This Dec story is about to get fun and most folks out there have no idea.  The hi-res Euro is seeing the -EPO while the ensemble is starting to get an idea...fun times ahead.
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11-29-19 Final Winter Outlook & Comment on next 30 days. M.

11-29-19 Final Winter Outlook & Comment on next 30 days. M. Good Friday morning friends hope this finds you well and full after Thanks giving. Todays update will feature no video but the final winter outlook and comment on pattern ahead. I made a slide to drive home some things I still see going on with the data and simply put IMO right now nothing has a clue beyond day 10 esp. the muted signal of the ensemble means. Over the next few days Im awaiting some major flips to cold in the EPS/GEFS data as we start seeing Dec…
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11-27-19 Long range outlook. Durable cold & wintry weather mid-late Dec beyond?

11-27-19 Long range outlook. Durable cold & wintry weather mid-late Dec beyond?

11-27-19 Long range outlook. Durable cold & wintry weather mid-late Dec beyond? Long range video analysis is a preview of what you will get with these various subscription levels. Check out whats included in each  package and give it a try! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2JHCuqU2dyk&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 -Attention weather enthusiasts and even those with weather related business needs! Black Friday, Small business Saturday and Cyber Monday sale starts 12am Friday! -Our annual lightning week sale this year will cut prices more than ever before! 50% off 3 very popular packages! Great “stocking stuffer deals!!” -If you love to get expert forecast and model data analysis…
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