12-10-19 Long-range: Updated week’s 3/4 forecast & expected model chaos ahead. M.

12-10-19 Long-range: Updated week’s 3/4 forecast & expected model chaos ahead. M.

Today's video: https://vimeo.com/378538243 PDF report (click link to the right to open in HD): 12-10-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: A few weak waves to track in the Midwest this week with some light snow chances.  Data hints that the system next week could bring snow chances to someone in the Midwest/Ohio/TN Valley. This is possible given brief period of a –AO.  The North Pacific continues to favor warmer risks for the week 2 period especially in the Eastern US.  A poleward shift of the jet is favored in week 2 which favors more mild Pacific air into the Eastern US. …
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12-6-19 Long-range: Updated weeks 3/4 forecast and growing confidence for a cold and stormy pattern. M.

12-6-19 Long-range: Updated weeks 3/4 forecast and growing confidence for a cold and stormy pattern. M.

Today's video: https://vimeo.com/377781840 PDF report (click link to the right to open in HD): 12-6-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Storm system early next week brings the next best chance of snow for the Northern Plains and rain in the TN Valley. Tropospheric polar vortex influence after the cold front early next week. This will bring a big blast of cold air to the Midwest. Widespread below zero temperatures in the Northern Plains.  Combination of MJO Phase 2, -AAM and location of the stratospheric Polar Vortex will favor Pacific blocking and cold air intrusions in week 2. Differences in the GEFS/EPS…
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New Email Format

Good afternoon, hoping all is well! You may have noticed a different format to our e-mail updates today...if not you will on Friday's forecasts. In an effort to limit the outside sharing of our daily updates, the e-mails will now direct you to the website for actual forecast content where you will have to log-in. If you have forgotten your password, click on the "Forgot your Password" button on the website log-in page or in the email itself, which will have you reset your password. Thank you for understanding, have a blessed day!  Here's where you click if you have forgot your password:
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12-3-19 Long-range: Discussing big modeled colder changes ahead & updated weeks 3/4 forecast. M.

12-3-19 Long-range: Discussing big modeled colder changes ahead & updated weeks 3/4 forecast. M.

Today's video: https://youtu.be/LyaoC2VGUyg PDF report (click link to the right to open in HD): 12-3-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Week 1 will be very quiet for most of the country. Weak cold fronts will favor cooler risks on the East Coast though warmth will build from west to east throughout the week. Overnight data has trended substantially colder in the week 2 period with a seemingly big win for the GEFS. Data suggests a potential tropospheric polar vortex influence after the cold front early next week. This will bring a big blast of cold air to the Midwest. The MJO…
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11-27-19 Long-range: Breaking down additional December risks…eyeing a very different month start to finish. M.

11-27-19 Long-range: Breaking down additional December risks…eyeing a very different month start to finish. M.

***Note: We still wanted to note that while we still don't anticipate the MJO getting into phase 3 ahead for December, that if we did end up feeling Phase 3 influence despite this, our top analog is still 1993 (which also got into phase 3) into December. Like 1993 and our updated weeks 3/4 forecast below, we had some moderation through the first 1-2 weeks of December in the Northwest and central US, cooler in the East...but as we trended into mid-late December the pattern grew progressively colder. We foresee a scenario, too, where the ridging returns in the west US…
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11-26-19 Long-range: A MUST See long range video today. Dec is trying to fool us & heres WHY. M.

11-26-19 Long-range: A MUST See long range video today. Dec is trying to fool us & heres WHY. M.

Today's video: https://youtu.be/l1ORAlxmb4A PDF Report (click link to the right to open in HD): 11-26-19 Long-range analysis Thanksgiving Holiday Update schedule is below. We will have updated weeks 3/4 and December forecast notes slide on Wednesday so please make sure not to miss those. If you have questions we encourage you to please reach out to the 24/7 on-call number...we are happy to help! Have a Happy Thanksgiving from all of us at BAM to you! Intro: Key Points: Two major storm systems to track this week – the first beginning today and leading to heavy snowfall in the upper…
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11-22-19 Long-range: Discussing colder trends/research for the December forecast. M.

11-22-19 Long-range: Discussing colder trends/research for the December forecast. M.

Today's video: https://youtu.be/_beh3sbyWq4 PDF report (click link to the right to open in HD): 11-2-19 Long-range analysis Thanksgiving update schedule: Intro: Key Points: Keeping a close eye on an upper-level low this weekend in the Ohio Valley. These systems are tricky but can produce their own cold air so snow chances are possible. Potential for a more notable storm system before Thanksgiving mid-next week in the Upper-Midwest/Northern Plains.  Overall pattern idea remains in place. Retracted Jet Stream related to low pressure in East Asia will help pull cold air into the Western/Central US with warmth in the South bleeding north…
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11-19-19 Long-range: Brief Dec moderation likely but significant durable cold in the cards mid-late Dec? Details here. M.

11-19-19 Long-range: Brief Dec moderation likely but significant durable cold in the cards mid-late Dec? Details here. M.

Today's video (https://youtu.be/qwYvrGzCRZw): https://youtu.be/qwYvrGzCRZw BAM Thanksgiving Holiday forecast update schedule:  PDF report (click link to the right to open in HD): 11-19-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: More active this week across the Plains with a more notable storm system mid-week. Another storm possible this weekend in the Tennessee Valley. This active period has been well targeted by organic forecast methods and the North Pacific pattern remains active.  Given this, we believe the active pattern probably persists into week 2 and to close November.  We are seeing signs of (at least) a minor stratospheric warming event. This type of warming and…
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11-15-19 Long-range: Discussing latest model biases leading into an important weeks 3/4 updated forecast. K.

11-15-19 Long-range: Discussing latest model biases leading into an important weeks 3/4 updated forecast. K.

Today's video: https://youtu.be/pvYH0HNkSTc PDF report (click link to the right to open in HD): 11-15-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Quiet pattern for much of the CONUS in the week 1 period with a storm system to track later next week in the SW US to Western Plains.  Overnight data trended much closer together with warmer trends on the GEFS and colder trends on the EPS Given our MJO Phase 1 analogs, we are going to remain steady with the idea of cold for the East Coast especially given the –NAO.  EPS is still likely a bit too warm at the…
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11-11-19 Long Range: Analyzing risks to the forecast into December, primary pattern drivers. B.

11-11-19 Long Range: Analyzing risks to the forecast into December, primary pattern drivers. B.

Today's Video:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYb-iM-CIiU&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF report (click link below to open in HD): 11-11 Long-Range Analysis Record cold each of the next 3 days moving from west to east.  Accumulating snowfall today for much of the Ohio Valley and Midwest.  Data has is showing a warmer pattern as we work into week 2 and especially the 10-15 day period.  The Pacific Jet is forecasted to be very strong which will flood warm air into the United States.  The –AAM state would generally favor cooler risks which was the basis behind our cooler idea from Friday, however, given the Niño driven Pacific…
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