4-16-19 Long-range: Warmer outlook to end April coupled with active precipitation risks. I.

4-16-19 Long-range: Warmer outlook to end April coupled with active precipitation risks. I.

Today's Video: http://youtu.be/vIAdMiNC8sw?hd=1 PDF Slides (click link below to open in HD): 4-4-19 Kirk Long range As an upper-level trough orients over the Eastern US this week, this will allow for the Central US to remain on the drier side with the enhanced precipitation risks shifting into the Eastern US and Eastern Ag Belt. Given the lower heights and sufficient moisture return for bouts of showers and stronger storms, temperatures will remain below normal in the Deep South. A stronger storm system lifting eastward across the AG Belt and Southern US mid-work week will be capable of producing strong to…
Read More
4-12-19 Long-range: Recapping this week’s blizzard…latest on a very stormy late April, updated weeks 3/4 forecast + discussing new summer data. K.

4-12-19 Long-range: Recapping this week’s blizzard…latest on a very stormy late April, updated weeks 3/4 forecast + discussing new summer data. K.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cG_F8iYvGnk&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Slides (click link below to open in HD): 4-12-19 Long range analysis Images: Key Points: Latest week’s ¾ Outlook in the slides below.  Leaning towards cooler risks into week 3, but warm ups with storm systems and into week 4 are favored. Wetter pattern developing for the Eastern third of the US over the next 7-10 days. Heaviest from the ARK-LA-TEX region into the Missouri Valley and Illinois/Indiana.  Moderate risk for severe weather in Northern Louisiana and Southern Arkansas. Outbreak of tornadoes is possible.  Central US will be cooler in week 1 with the East Coast…
Read More
4-11-19 Long-range: Blizzard update…also discussing the active pattern continuing ahead + pattern ideas into early May. K.

4-11-19 Long-range: Blizzard update…also discussing the active pattern continuing ahead + pattern ideas into early May. K.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afbVlwPQ62k&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Slides (click link below to open in HD): 4-11-19 Long range analysis Key Points: Blizzard continues in the Plains this morning with some areas likely seeing their all time highest snowfall for April.  As the snow melts over the next few weeks, flooding issues will likely exacerbate in Plains given saturated soils and continued snow melt. Greatest precipitation risks likely push into the eastern US related the next few weeks.  A sea surface temperature indicator off the coast of Western NA (The PMM), is very warm right now. This will help enhance the sub-tropical jet stream…
Read More
4-8-19 Ag Weather Full Analysis: Breaking down the blizzard-like conditions forecast mid-week for the central US. K.

4-8-19 Ag Weather Full Analysis: Breaking down the blizzard-like conditions forecast mid-week for the central US. K.

Don't forget to sign up for our official summer webinar Wednesday, April 24, 2019 at 11amET...tell your friends too please! -Kirk Link: BAMwx.com/webinar Today's Video: http://youtu.be/iud_Ifp3aU8?hd=1 PDF Slides (click link below to open in HD): 4-8-19 Long range analysis Images: Key Points: Widespread warmth across the continental US lingering over the next couple of days will break down as the ridge in the east weakens and –NAO/-AO signals (higher pressure in the High Latitudes) take hold. A substantial storm system will lift out of the Rockies by mid-week and bring a heavy dose of snow and wind to portions of…
Read More
4-4-19 Long-range: Warmth floods in over the next week…eyeing wintry potential ahead & cooler risks into mid-month. K.

4-4-19 Long-range: Warmth floods in over the next week…eyeing wintry potential ahead & cooler risks into mid-month. K.

Today's video: http://youtu.be/mETwTVHOZeE?hd=1 PDF slides (click link below to open in HD): 4-4-19 Long range Analysis Images: Key Points: Widespread warmth engulfs much of the country during the week 1 period as upper-level ridging becomes prominent, especially in the Eastern US.  Much of the Ag Belt will end up 5-8ºF above normal as a whole with heating demand remaining below average as we work closer to the core of the warmth this weekend. With ridging developing in the Eastern US will come a more active pattern for the Southeastern US while a robust system to end the week 1 timeframe…
Read More
Discussing different teleconnection acronyms you may read in our discussions. N.

Discussing different teleconnection acronyms you may read in our discussions. N.

Hello everyone!  Here at BAM Weather our goal is to keep things simple, and we want to familiarize you with some of the different acronyms for teleconnections that we use.  This should make it much easier when you read some of our discussions regarding the synoptic weather pattern.  Meteorology has so many acronyms, and we want to explain what each of these mean.  Sometimes it's not so much knowing the full explanation, but knowing what a positive vs. negative phase of a particular teleconnection produces weather-wise.  We'll highlight the main takeaways in red.   A teleconnection, which is what we…
Read More
4-1-19 Long-range: Recapping March…discussing warming temps for April & latest summer preliminary forecast ideas. M.

4-1-19 Long-range: Recapping March…discussing warming temps for April & latest summer preliminary forecast ideas. M.

Today's video (we were having slight problems with our mic this morning, but the issue has been fixed now if you hear the audio skipping a touch): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJSzjEa_oOk&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Slides (click link below to open in HD): 4-1-19 Long-Range Analysis Images: Key Points: Working into a bit of a more active pattern when it comes to storm dates with two in week 2 and one in week 1 with another to close out the week/begin week 2.  However, we do not have a super strong correlation to the Bering Sea – most are East Asia related – and our temperature…
Read More
2019 Preliminary Growing/Cooling Season Outlook. M.

2019 Preliminary Growing/Cooling Season Outlook. M.

2019 Preliminary Growing/Cooling Season Outlook. M. The preliminary forecast package for Summer 2019 has been completed. Overall we foresee a cooler and wetter Summer VS the statistical average. The evolution of ENSO is crucial and we will be watching that closely. As of today we anticipate a weak to moderate strength El Nino (more central based) is possible. Right now we are under the belief that heat waves will be limited and dry time will be hard to come by. Most cities in the primary growing regions will see a below average number of 90+ degree highs and 70+ overnight lows. This forecast is…
Read More
3-28-19 Long Range Analysis: Updated flooding concerns transitioning into April + sifting thru current model differences in the extended. K.

3-28-19 Long Range Analysis: Updated flooding concerns transitioning into April + sifting thru current model differences in the extended. K.

Today's Video: http://youtu.be/4Zh7nYoPiA8?hd=1 PDF Slides (click link below to open in HD): 3-28 Long-Range Analysis Images: Tracking rain in the short term for many across the Midwest and Ohio Valley and snow snow risks in the Plains. Stay tuned for local updates for more detail.  Temperatures are generally cooler than normal for the next week on average but we will see warmth ahead of the storm system the next few days and ridging that builds in the northeast to end the week will help keep that area above normal.  Overall, not a ton of precipitation in week 1 for most…
Read More
3-25-19 Long Range: Targeting additional Plains flooding risks this week. Discussing organic forecast ideas for April. B.

3-25-19 Long Range: Targeting additional Plains flooding risks this week. Discussing organic forecast ideas for April. B.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1rsh4Dat0o&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Slides (click link below to open in HD): 3-25 Long-Range Analysis Images: One main system to track this week which will likely work from the western Plains through parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Some areas could pick up decent rainfall/snowfall with this system, but much of the rest of the US remains relatively inactive.  Rain/snow risks for Nebraska and Iowa are concerning given recent flood issues in those areas. Stay tuned to local updates for potential impacts with this storm. Additional flooding threats expected. Up/down temperature pattern this week with a cool shot to start…
Read More