8-20-19 Long-range: Discussing short-term strong storm cluster risks + increasing MJO influence ahead late month into September. K.

8-20-19 Long-range: Discussing short-term strong storm cluster risks + increasing MJO influence ahead late month into September. K.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dGWL8I1-WDI&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): Link: 8-20-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: A few more warmer days to begin this week before the cold front mid-late this week which will bring a blast of cooler air into the Ag Belt. Active pattern in the short-term for a good portion of the Ag Belt as the ridge of high pressure trended less robust than initially forecasted. A round of severe storms this morning and today are possible into the Ohio Valley. Overnight data trended much cooler again given of more confidence in the Increasing likelihood…
Read More
8-16-19 Long-range: Updated week’s 3/4 forecast (cooler risks increasing?) + fresh September to October analogs. M.

8-16-19 Long-range: Updated week’s 3/4 forecast (cooler risks increasing?) + fresh September to October analogs. M.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16F82V2R3vQ&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): Link: 8-16-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Increasing heat this weekend and into early next week for much of the Ag Belt related to a previous –AAM drop and westward moving typhoon. However, this heat will be short-lived as recurving typhoon Korsa will likely bring a strong cold front later next week. Data has trended substantially cooler the past few runs for the end of next week and into the weekend related to the typhoon recurve. Wouldn’t be surprised to see further cooler changes but confidence increasing on a…
Read More
8-13-19 Long Range: Analysis of the pattern influences from Typhoon Korsa. Looking at forecast ideas into September. B.

8-13-19 Long Range: Analysis of the pattern influences from Typhoon Korsa. Looking at forecast ideas into September. B.

Today's Video: http://youtu.be/CkUGyQbE5To?hd=1 Today's Slides (Click for PDF Below):  8-13 Long Range Analysis Up/Down pattern continues. Warmer weather to start the week with cooler weather behind a cold front mid-late week.  Heat returns next week for about a ~5 day period leading to high cooling demand and warmer than normal temperatures for most of the Ag Belt.  Flash Flooding in parts of S. Illinois this morning with heavy rain also ongoing in parts Ohio. Increasing likelihood of a recurving typhoon ~Aug. 15/16 east of Korea. This is a strong cooler signal that would correlate 6-10 days later. Favoring Aug. 23…
Read More
8-9-19 Long-range: Warmer risks increasing ahead + concern growing for continued dryness to linger across the Midwest. Updated weeks 3/4. K.

8-9-19 Long-range: Warmer risks increasing ahead + concern growing for continued dryness to linger across the Midwest. Updated weeks 3/4. K.

Today's video: http://youtu.be/6vROaQXbKeQ?hd=1 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): Link: 8-9-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Latest Week’s ¾ Outlook Area of abnormally dry conditions have developed in the Midwest. Increasing heat and more dry weather into next week will likely exacerbate conditions.  Main flow will likely take storm clusters into the Upper-Midwest and Great Lakes. Much of the Central and Southern Plains + Ohio Valley may miss out on notable rain risks.  Warmer risks appearing likely for week 2 as well – though we’ll see a decent cold front ~Aug. 14 which will bring in a few…
Read More
8-6-19 Long-range: Breaking down the conflicting signals regarding the 2nd half of Aug pattern evolution. M.

8-6-19 Long-range: Breaking down the conflicting signals regarding the 2nd half of Aug pattern evolution. M.

Today's video: https://youtu.be/b7Th4IIvgI4 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): Link: 8-6-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: We continue to keep an eye on West Pacific typhoon risks. A weak tropical cyclone looks to recurve this week and does get picked up by a trough which will likely aid in a cold front (Aug. 14 – 16) after our brief warm up into week 2.  It’s still TBD on how the pattern will react to the next two storms and data probably won’t get a complete handle on them until the first system is out later this week. We…
Read More
8-2-19 Long-range: Significant cool risk via -EPO looms. Updated weeks 3/4. M.

8-2-19 Long-range: Significant cool risk via -EPO looms. Updated weeks 3/4. M.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwE4JnGoe-Y&feature=youtu.be PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): Link: 8-2-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Summer To-Date CDDs: 602.5 Data has trended much cooler the last few runs as it better sees the cooler risks associated with the BSR signal and +AAM Tendencies.  The BSR is a little warmer in the extended term, but then we begin to see the influences of recurving typhoon potentials and +AAM tendencies so we still believe cooler risks will be the most prominent through the third week of August.  Warmer days to close out week 1, but data is seeing our…
Read More
7-30-19 Long-range: Discussing trends in the global wind pattern towards lingering “cool” ahead…warmer risks into Sept? M.

7-30-19 Long-range: Discussing trends in the global wind pattern towards lingering “cool” ahead…warmer risks into Sept? M.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-G-rp3fmMiA&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): Link: 7-30-19 Kirk Long range Key Points: Week 1 looks to feature another nice shot of cooler air for a good portion of the Ag Belt with some warmer tendencies to close the week.  Week 1 remains drier than normal for much of the country, though we’ll need to watch portions of the Central and Northern Plains for some storm cluster risks – some areas can get heavy rain in Nebraska, E. KS and W. Missouri. Ahead of the next cold front into the second week of August,…
Read More
7-26-19 Long-range: Breaking down recent cooler trends ahead…updated weeks 3/4 + August outlooks. K.

7-26-19 Long-range: Breaking down recent cooler trends ahead…updated weeks 3/4 + August outlooks. K.

Today's video: http://youtu.be/pgbEsLRAJqI?hd=1 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): Link: 7-26-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Updated Week’s ¾ Outlooks. Updated August Forecasts.  Week 2 continuing to trend cooler as we see the influence of +AAM tendencies and a west pacific tropical cyclone recurve.  We are also noticing strong correlations to ENSO region 4 for August that suggest cooler risks have merit.  It seems that the West Pacific activity and ENSO are outweighing the persistent –AAM state leading to the cooler risks..  We continue to believe that the cooler risks and tendency for Eastern US troughs will present…
Read More
7-23-19 Long-range: Updated August research today…also discussing first initial thoughts on winter ahead. M.

7-23-19 Long-range: Updated August research today…also discussing first initial thoughts on winter ahead. M.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mqq6GGc_OKM&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): Link: 7-23-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Week 1 period continues to run on average cooler than normal with a much less active period likely for the Ag Belt. Many areas will receive much below normal precipitation in week 1 especially in the Central Plains and Ohio Valley. Northwest flow will begin to develop especially into early next week as we bring a return to the heat. This will increase storm cluster risks especially in the Northern Plains but the risk for storm clusters will also increase into the…
Read More
7-19-19 Long-range: Very warm risks on the table into August…precip up for grabs. M.

7-19-19 Long-range: Very warm risks on the table into August…precip up for grabs. M.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXXjl97aGCc PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): Link: 7-19-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Excessive Heat Warnings from the Plains to the Ohio Valley and even in the Northeast through the weekend. Cooler pattern will take hold next week and drop cooling demand and lead to much more pleasant and drier conditions for much of the Ag Belt. Bering Sea Signal and AAM/SOI would suggest an up/down pattern to close out July and into August.  We continue to mention that there are conflicting signals in the week 2 period. The BSR suggests cooler risks, the –AAM…
Read More