2-14-19 Long Range: Active pattern continues. Latest research on pattern, severe weather risks into March. B.

2-14-19 Long Range: Active pattern continues. Latest research on pattern, severe weather risks into March. B.

Agriculture, becks, Energy, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Premium Discussions, South Dakota, States, Texas, Weekly Energy Report, Weekly Farm Report
Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPDG7zgRAGI&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Slides (click link below to open in HD): 2-14 Long-Range Analysis Data continued slight warmer trends last night. Overall heating demand is still above normal due mostly to major cold continuing in the Western US. Data has trended further south with a clipper system for the Ohio Valley Friday night and much weaker with a wave of snow on Sunday. Overall, with data flexing the southeast ridge in week 2 it will be tough to get a good snow track in the Ohio Valley. We’ll likely end up on the north end of the storm track…
Read More
2-11-19 Long-range: Cold turns more widespread into late February…discussing March risks today as well w/ latest research. K.

2-11-19 Long-range: Cold turns more widespread into late February…discussing March risks today as well w/ latest research. K.

Agriculture, becks, Energy, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Premium Discussions, South Dakota, Texas, Weekly Energy Report, Weekly Farm Report
Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=krR8aXT8g7g PDF Slides (click link below to open in HD): 2-11-19 Long-Range Analysis Images: Key Points: Additional heavy rain for parts of the Ohio Valley and Eastern US this week as storm track continues to favor snow risks in the Upper-Midwest and Northern Plains.  The Eastern third of the US generally remains warmer than normal on average over the next 7 days with the continued –PNA pattern on the west coast related to MJO phases 6/7 and –EAMT.  Into week 2 we should start to develop a Scandinavian block which will help develop a trough off of the…
Read More
2-4-19 Long-range: Very active week ahead…discussing latest February into early March pattern analysis. M.

2-4-19 Long-range: Very active week ahead…discussing latest February into early March pattern analysis. M.

Agriculture, becks, Energy, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Premium Discussions, South Dakota, Texas, Weekly Energy Report, Weekly Farm Report
***Don't forget! Wednesday, February 6th is our official Spring Forecast Webinar and live Q&A session at 11amET...sign up is free at BAMwx.com/webinar! Current subscribers please still fill out this form as no one is automatically signed up for this. And as always, please spread the word about this to friends and family to sign up and join in!*** Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G6ij4Xc41xM&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Slides (click link below to open in HD): 2-4-19 Long-Range Analysis Images: Key Points: Final January numbers below. Massive shift in HDDs from well below normal to begin to month to well above normal to end the month.…
Read More
1-31-19 Long Range: Latest February pattern break-down and discussing risks for Feb. forecast. B.

1-31-19 Long Range: Latest February pattern break-down and discussing risks for Feb. forecast. B.

Agriculture, becks, Energy, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Premium Discussions, South Dakota, States, Texas, Weekly Energy Report, Weekly Farm Report
Today's Video:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KbU0M8_UN-A&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Slides (click link below to open in HD): 1-31 Long-Range Analysis Images: Several all-time record lows have been set this morning including Elkhart, IN and West Chicago, IL. Widespread daily record lows have been set from the Midwest and Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.  Temperatures will begin to moderate after today and we quickly send the southern and eastern portions of the US above normal with well below normal heating demand.  MJO phases 6/7 are lending to development of an Eastern ridge and with a very active pattern in place several storm systems will…
Read More
1-28-19 Long-range: Extreme cold settles in mid-week…pattern turns more active w/ wintry risks into Feb; latest details here. M.

1-28-19 Long-range: Extreme cold settles in mid-week…pattern turns more active w/ wintry risks into Feb; latest details here. M.

Agriculture, becks, Energy, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Premium Discussions, South Dakota, Texas, Weekly Energy Report, Weekly Farm Report
Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEIKcuMNvks&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Slides (click link below to open in HD): 1-28-19 Long-Range Analysis Images: Key Points: All time record lows will be challenged this week especially on Thursday morning. Widespread record cold daytime highs and nighttime lows are likely Wednesday and Thursday across the Midwest as a lobe of the tropospheric polar vortex dives into the northern part of the US.  Following today’s storm, we’ll only have one weak wave to track until the end of the week 2 period as the cold air suppresses the storm track. As the lobe of the PV lifts out of the…
Read More
1-24-19 Long-range: Dangerous cold next week. Active pattern too…latest details here. M.

1-24-19 Long-range: Dangerous cold next week. Active pattern too…latest details here. M.

Agriculture, becks, Energy, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Premium Discussions, South Dakota, Texas, Weekly Energy Report, Weekly Farm Report
Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLi3GSFckPM PDF slides (click link below to open in HD): 1-24-19 Long-Range Analysis Images: Key Points: Data consensus for the tropospheric polar vortex to drop into the Great Lakes next week. This is in response to the development of a major –AO and SSW impacts into the troposphere. This is the typical response time to see tropospheric impacts from a stratospheric disruption in non-propagating events.  This is only the second PV Split on record in an El Nino year that did not propagate downward. The other Nino year – 1988 – was also very cold beginning 4 weeks…
Read More
1-21-19 Long Range: Very cold pattern settles in next 2 weeks…discussing risks into February. N.

1-21-19 Long Range: Very cold pattern settles in next 2 weeks…discussing risks into February. N.

Agriculture, becks, Energy, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Premium Discussions, South Dakota, Texas, Weekly Energy Report, Weekly Farm Report
Today's Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DcLsdRH6vI&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF slides (click link below to open in HD): Long Range Slides Images: Key Points: Active week for clipper systems across the Northern Plains and the Midwest. Big storm systems could overall be suppressed south/east due to very cold air other than the storm early this week. Data remains relatively steady with very high heating demand into the end of January with just a few dips related to storms.  Data will continue to struggle picking up on storm risks, so be sure to pay attention to storm dates for potential HDD dip risks *briefly*. Overall, the AAM…
Read More
1-17-19 Long-range: Quick weekend winter storm update + latest February research & analysis. M.

1-17-19 Long-range: Quick weekend winter storm update + latest February research & analysis. M.

Agriculture, becks, Energy, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Premium Discussions, South Dakota, Texas, Weekly Energy Report, Weekly Farm Report
Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6eIr9LK9-KY PDF Slides (click link below to open in HD): 1-17-19 Long-Range Analysis Images: Key Points: Major winter storm likely this weekend with strong wind gusts and crashing temps behind the storm system.  Another storm system looks to develop early next week with perhaps another chance of accumulating snow possible for parts of the Midwest.  Active pattern for snow likely persists at least into the end of January with numerous shots of major cold likely behind storm systems.  Overall, the progression we’re seeing in the AAM and PV continues to be favorable for cold air diving south into…
Read More
1-14-19 Long-range: Eyeing another high impact winter storm into the weekend…very cold pattern settles in mid to late Jan. M.

1-14-19 Long-range: Eyeing another high impact winter storm into the weekend…very cold pattern settles in mid to late Jan. M.

Agriculture, becks, Energy, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Premium Discussions, South Dakota, Texas, Weekly Energy Report, Weekly Farm Report
Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62HzYiLdwWk&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Slides (click link below to open in HD): 1-14-19 Long-Range Analysis Images: Key Points: Very cold this morning for many in the Midwest following the major winter storm that dropped as much as 20” of snow in portions of Missouri.  Quieter weather the next couple of days, but a clipper system is possible Thursday – Friday for the Northern Plains/Midwest. Major winter storm possible this weekend from the Plains to the Ohio Valley with strong ensemble support. Lots of variability in model data so be sure to stay tuned to local reports.  This active storm track…
Read More
1-10-19 Long-range: Update on accumulating snow in the short-term + large support for colder trends & persistent wintry risks ahead. M.

1-10-19 Long-range: Update on accumulating snow in the short-term + large support for colder trends & persistent wintry risks ahead. M.

Agriculture, becks, Energy, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Premium Discussions, South Dakota, Texas, Weekly Energy Report, Weekly Farm Report
Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WpyuUwsGK5E&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF slides (click link below to open in HD): 1-10-19 Long-Range Analysis Images: Key Points: Cooler risks in the Eastern US persist this week related to MJO phase 8.  A storm system this weekend has led to winter storm watches in parts of Eastern Missouri and Southwest Illinois. Expect these to be expanded and upgraded over the next 24 hours.  A band of 8-12” of snow are possible in the areas under the watch with a widespread band of 5-8” through Central/Southern Illinois and Indiana.  Quieter period especially for the northern tier of the US over the…
Read More