7-18-19 Northern Plains: Targeting additional storm risks into Saturday…much quieter weekend settles in. N.

7-18-19 Northern Plains: Targeting additional storm risks into Saturday…much quieter weekend settles in. N.

Today's video: http://youtu.be/sDGpnhgkif0?hd=1 Observed rainfall over the past 24 hours across the Region...locally heavy rains noted especially across NE and SE Minnesota and spots across south-central North Dakota: Storm reports over the past 24 hours...was very active with a few tornadoes in northern MN and hail/wind reports scattered across the Dakotas: A skinny line of storms looks to redevelop across far southern MN tonight, but the bigger risk likely comes late Friday night into Saturday morning for additional flash flooding and isolated strong storms across SE SD to southern MN once again...the reason this area is so active is the…
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7-17-19 Northern Plains: Additional storm threats tonight (esp. Minnesota)…a bit drier Thurs/Fri.  N.

7-17-19 Northern Plains: Additional storm threats tonight (esp. Minnesota)…a bit drier Thurs/Fri. N.

Today's video: http://youtu.be/YJvzS2Wh39E?hd=1 Observed rainfall over the past 24 hours is below...some localized very heavy rainfall noted across the southern half of ND and a good many locations across SD: Several locations in the circled area across the southern half of MN are anticipated to see 1.0-3.0"...a few locations maybe even top 3.0"+ due to flash flooding risks especially south and east. Otherwise, we targeted scattered 0.25-0.75" across eastern ND to northern MN, and isolated 0.25-0.50" across western ND: We've circle an area black where we favor the best risks for flash flooding and strong / severe risks tonight...damaging winds…
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7-16-19 North Dakota/South Dakota: Short Term Update Through Wednesday Evening.V.

7-16-19 North Dakota/South Dakota: Short Term Update Through Wednesday Evening.V.

Good Tuesday afternoon! A check on radar as of 4:45 PM CT shows we have some rain moving over the central parts of ND with a few spotty cells on the ND/SD border and a lone cell in W SD: The rest of the evening overall looks like we could be dealing with another storm cluster from this evening and into the overnight hours. Severe weather with this cluster is certainly possible as noted in the AM update with the focus being on a line from NW to SE SD as this cluster works its way W to E. Below is a radar loop from 10 PM…
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7-16-19 Northern Plains: Targeting heavy storm clusters through mid-week…less active late week. N.

7-16-19 Northern Plains: Targeting heavy storm clusters through mid-week…less active late week. N.

Today's video: http://youtu.be/LaGeX4O5K2M?hd=1 24 hours observed rainfall across the area: Here's a quick snapshot of timing that we favor regarding the storm evolution tonight into tomorrow morning: We do favor the increased risks for damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornadoes and locally heavy rainfall tonight into tomorrow morning in the area especially circled in the black: Rainfall totals in the 2 circled areas are favored to range between 0.5-1.5"...a few areas achieving up to 2-3" cannot, however, be fully ruled out: We anticipate a re-intensification of a line of showers and storms, some being strong to severe with damaging winds,…
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7-16-19 Long-range: A lot of ups-and-downs the next few weeks…details here. M.

7-16-19 Long-range: A lot of ups-and-downs the next few weeks…details here. M.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ex-ZhpxKmtA&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): Link: 7-16-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Some storms cluster risks as the ridge builds are increasing in portions of Iowa and Nebraska with rain ongoing in some areas this morning.  Heat really builds later this week with drier risks under the ridge in the Central Plains. Some northwest flow will develop as the ridge retracts early next week and brings some storm cluster risks into the Midwest and Eastern Plains.  We continue to watch for a cool-down in the pattern in week 2 related to a strongly –SOI…
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7-15-19 North Dakota/South Dakota: Short Term Update Through Tuesday Evening.V.

7-15-19 North Dakota/South Dakota: Short Term Update Through Tuesday Evening.V.

Good Monday afternoon! A quick look at radar as of  4:15 PM CT shows that we are seeing a few spotty hit and miss showers and storms across the Dakotas: Here is the modeled upper level energy from 9 PM CT this evening until 1 PM CT Tue. Our unsettled weather pattern looks to continue tonight and into tomorrow.We are looking at the focus of precip in the next 36 hours to fall in SD as this is where we are seeing the highest amounts of upper level energy. This energy should be enough forcing to spark storms and keep…
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7-15-19 Northern Plains: Targeting several storm clusters + building heat this week. N.

Today's Video: http://youtu.be/Trv2ZDenL-c?hd=1 Observed rainfall from this weekend is below...as we noted this past Friday and throughout the weekend with updates, the rainfall would be very sporadic in nature with splotchy totals throughout the whole regions anticipated: We do anticipate an increased risks for damaging winds and locally large hail this afternoon into tonight especially focused across Minnesota...we circled an area in black we feel could potentially be upgraded to a slight risk if the wave takes a dive south to southwest late tonight...this will need to be fine-tuned this afternoon with another update: In the short-term, North Dakota is…
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7-14-19 South Dakota: Discussing storm chances through Monday night. MG.

Good afternoon!  Here is your latest forecast update video: http://youtu.be/KXih8borvGc?hd=1 Scattered storms will be possible this afternoon in eastern portions of South Dakota as well as in in the Black Hills.  Storms this afternoon can be severe in nature with strong winds, hail, and possibly an isolated tornado.  Forecast confidence is on the lower side as models continue to struggle with the current pattern.  More storms will be possible across the state tomorrow with with more potential severe weather at play tomorrow. Here is a look at simulated radar from 4 PM CDT today through 5 AM CDT Monday.  Note…
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7-13-19 South Dakota: Short Term Update Through Sunday evening.V.

7-13-19 South Dakota: Short Term Update Through Sunday evening.V.

Good Saturday afternoon! A quick check on radar as of 3 PM CT shows that we have an area of storms focusing themselves in E SD. We do think this area is the part of the state that can see the most coverage and most severe storms tonight: While we do think the overwhelming majority of the state stays dry the rest of the afternoon and evening, we are watching for the potential of some severe thunderstorm development in E SD. An area of upper level energy will be working toward the E and is the cause for some of…
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7-12-19 South Dakota Short Term Update: Discussing severe weather tonight with another possible round late tomorrow. MG.

Good evening!  Here is the latest short term forecast update video: http://youtu.be/qVt5BUCAlPQ?hd=1 Storms will likely begin to form in northwestern parts of South Dakota later this evening/ night with the potential for some hail and strong wind gust.  Storms will continue to evolve southeast throughout the state with the potential for line segments/ clusters to form in the overnight hours.  As the storms begin to organize, the severe risk will mainly be that of strong winds.  Storms will continue to push south and east late tonight/ early hours of Saturday before exiting around 10 AM.  The focus then shifts to…
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