6-14-19 Long-range: Updated weeks 3/4 + July pattern discussion…key features returning with a very active pattern ahead. K.

6-14-19 Long-range: Updated weeks 3/4 + July pattern discussion…key features returning with a very active pattern ahead. K.

Today's video: http://youtu.be/6jWY9q8CkQo?hd=1 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): 6-14-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: We’ve added yet another storm date via East Asia giving us 6 total to close out the month of June in what will become an extremely active pattern beginning this weekend.  Temperatures remain below normal for the vast majority of the AG Belt on average for the next 7 days.  Models continue to waffle with the forecast in week 2 with variable cooler and warmer trends over the past several days. Generally we lean on the cooler side – but note that at…
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6-11-19 Long-range: Pattern drivers pointing towards a very wet pattern late June into July…latest here. M.

6-11-19 Long-range: Pattern drivers pointing towards a very wet pattern late June into July…latest here. M.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5Pb5ERIm-c PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): 6-11-19 Long range analysis Key Points: Wetter trends on the models into mid / late June as we increase the Pacific jet stream extension and Southeast ridge again (clashing of air masses similar to May’s pattern evolution). Favored European Ensemble model continues to rebuild in the Southeast Ridge nicely into the week 2 timeframe, continuing to move the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) through Phases 4-5-6 ahead. Updated European weeklies, shown below, continuing our idea for a return of the Southeast Ridge similar to May, into early July…resulting in…
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6-7-19 Long Range: Precipitation increases into week 2 + Cooler temps continue

Good Friday morning! Here is your latest long range video update: http://youtu.be/KbXl-SWn8R4?hd=1   Week 1: •Cooler than normal temperatures across the majority of the country likely a result of MJO progression and +AAM •ECMWF is almost perfectly matching our MJO phase 3 analogs for week 1. Week 2: •Cooler air will continue across the Ag Belt with MJO/ENSO/AAM analogs highly supportive of a cool pattern throughout week 2 into week 3.  •Overall we expect little to no changes in the immediate future. •GEFS is still showing a warmer signal than what we believe will occur likely due to its MJO and…
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6-6-19 Long Range: Cooler Temperatures Imminent + Temporary decreased precipitation chances

Good Thursday Morning! Here is your updated long range video: http://youtu.be/NaNg901LgEU?hd=1  Week 1: •The Northern Plains will be the warmest portion of the Ag Belt in week 1. Cooler risks confined south due to increased precipitation with a cut-off upper low over the Ark-La-Tex. •ECMWF is almost perfectly matching our MJO phase 3 analogs for week 1. •Most of the Belt averages below normal, with warmer than normal lows through the weekend. Week 2: •Cooler air invades the Ag Belt from west to east next week, with MJO/ENSO/AAM analogs highly supportive of a cool pattern throughout week 2 into week 3.…
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6-5-19 Long Range: Precipitation intensity decreases for now + Cooler trends continue

6-5-19 Long Range: Precipitation intensity decreases for now + Cooler trends continue

Good Wednesday Morning: Here is your latest long range video: http://youtu.be/qjUDkoXQ3gM?hd=1 Week 1: The Northern Plains will be the warmest portion of the Ag Belt in week 1.  Cooler risks confined south due to increased precipitation with a cut-off upper low over the Ark-La-Tex. •Most of the Belt averages near normal, with warmer than normal lows through the weekend. Week 2: •Cooler air invades the Ag Belt from west to east next week, with MJO/ENSO/AAM analogs highly supportive of a cool pattern throughout week 2 into week 3.   •GEFS is also trending toward a colder signal, but it is likely…
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6-4-19 Long Range: Heavy Rain Risk + Cooling Temperatures details within. M.

Good Tuesday morning here is your latest long range video update: http://youtu.be/vOPbnISiCB8?hd=1 Week 1: •The Northern Plains will be the warmest portion of the Ag Belt in week 1. Cooler risks confined south due to increased precipitation with a cut-off upper low over the Ark-La-Tex late week. •Most of the Belt averages near normal, with warmer than normal lows through the weekend. Week 2: •Cooler air invades the Ag Belt from west to east next week, with MJO/ENSO/AAM analogs highly supportive of a cool pattern throughout week 2 into week 3.  •GEFS is likely too warm in week 2 as it…
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5-31-19 Long-range: Updated May forecast verification + discussing the drivers behind our updated weeks 3/4 & Final June forecast. M.

5-31-19 Long-range: Updated May forecast verification + discussing the drivers behind our updated weeks 3/4 & Final June forecast. M.

*Don't forget, we've added a new 2 week forecast GDD (growing degree day) forecast below now each day as well for the main regions of the Ag Belt. Have a blessed weekend! -Kirk Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Re_cjy1nm8&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): 5-31-19 Long range analysis Key Points: Pattern continuing ahead over the next 2 weeks trending towards more “normal” cooling demand nationally. We see some drier days ahead throughout the Plains and Midwest today through early next week from west to east. We anticipate the pattern to quickly transition back to wetter risks starting Tuesday to…
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5-28-19 Long-range: Recapping recent excessive rainfall / strong storms + continued active pattern into early June. M.

5-28-19 Long-range: Recapping recent excessive rainfall / strong storms + continued active pattern into early June. M.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OoULf06BiLE&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): 5-28-19 Long range analysis Key Points: Recap of recent rainfall and severe weather over the Holiday weekend…over 50 tornadoes reported yesterday. Pattern over the next week holds strong with a stout southeast ridge and above normal precip flowing into the central US to the Midwest / Ohio Valley. End of the first week of June to the 2nd week, due to the MJO progression out of Phase 1 through 2, 3 and 4 we see a subtle weakening of the SE ridge, cooler risks bleeding into the Midwest…
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5-24-19 Long-range: Updated weeks 3/4 & June forecast thoughts. M.

5-24-19 Long-range: Updated weeks 3/4 & June forecast thoughts. M.

***Due to Monday being Memorial Day, we do not anticipate of having energy or long range updates...but as always, you are more than welcome to reach out to the on-call service if you have questions and we'd be happy to answer them. Have a blessed Holiday weekend! -Kirk Today's video: http://youtu.be/UpcLAv5EbLg?hd=1 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): 5-24-19 Long range analysis Key Points: Recapping the last week of precipitation…the modeled widespread high totals of rainfall over 2”+ across the corn belt definitely verified, with multiple spots seeing 4”+ especially south. Discussing updated week 1 / 2 precip…
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5-21-19 Long-range: Discussing heavy rainfall ahead, early June pattern change potential, updated summer analogs & ENSO progression. M.

5-21-19 Long-range: Discussing heavy rainfall ahead, early June pattern change potential, updated summer analogs & ENSO progression. M.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iC-4ay0KuO0&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): 5-21-19 Long range Key Points: Updated US Corn Planting progress discussion. Discussing observed severe weather across the southern Plains yesterday. Updated breakdown of additional heavy precipitation rainfall risks especially over the next 10 days across the central Plains into the Midwest. Discussing the elevated concern for continued planting delays across parts of the southern to central Plains into the western Midwest especially. Updated MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) progression ahead through phases 8-1-2 and possibly 3…discussing when a pattern transition would start to work in into early June. New…
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