10-18-19 Long-range: Updated weeks 3/4 & November outlooks…discussing the lengthy colder potential & associated risks ahead. K.

10-18-19 Long-range: Updated weeks 3/4 & November outlooks…discussing the lengthy colder potential & associated risks ahead. K.

Today's video (https://youtu.be/8KOhvkHxVrc): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KOhvkHxVrc&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF report (click like to the right to open in HD): 10-18-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Tropical system developing in the GOM leading to increased rain threats for the south/east coast.  Data continues to trend stronger with blasts of cold air behind fronts in the extended range.  Overall colder pattern setting up for end of October into November remains on track.  Given a building +PNA we do think that the Central and Western US can lean on the drier side for week 2 with better precipitation chances in the Eastern US. Updated week’s 3/4 / Nov…
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10-15-19 Long-range: Increasing colder risks into NOV. Models starting to catch on. Details here. M.

10-15-19 Long-range: Increasing colder risks into NOV. Models starting to catch on. Details here. M.

Today's video: https://youtu.be/3eHW9d24vLs PDF report (click link to the right to open in HD): 10-15-19 Long-range analysis  Key Points: Quieter pattern throughout the week for much of the Ag Belt as storm system builds early next week. We still have a strong cold front which will dump cooler air into the Central and Eastern US mid-late week. Following this front the Eastern US will warm up substantially ahead of our next storm system as we continue to feel –AAM influences. Typhoon recurve still looks to correlate to colder risks beginning following the ~Oct. 20 – 23 system with additional cool…
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10-11-19 Long-range: Cold risk to end Oct/open Nov. Details here and latest Winter data shared. M.

10-11-19 Long-range: Cold risk to end Oct/open Nov. Details here and latest Winter data shared. M.

Today's video: https://youtu.be/6LysaLDXT-U PDF report (click link to the right to open in HD): 10-11-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Updated Week’s ¾ Outlook. Cooler risks related to the –AAM/North Pacific Pattern. Quieter weather after today for much of the Central US as cooler air and high pressure dominates the pattern. Another strong cold front late next week associated with an SOI drop. Data continues to struggle seeing the magnitude of cold fronts prior to 10 days out.  Overnight EPS/GEFS runs have trended much colder at the end of week 2 and we anticipate to see more cooler trends then next…
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10-8-19 Long-range: Discussing the late week historic snowstorm & another big cold front late month. M.

10-8-19 Long-range: Discussing the late week historic snowstorm & another big cold front late month. M.

Don't forget! This Wednesday, October 9th, is our official client winter weather webinar at 11 AM EDT! Please join us by signing up at BAMwx.com/client-webinar!  Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIuJZTtmQ5E&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF report (click link to the right to open in HD): 10-8-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Warmer temperatures on average for the Eastern third of the US the next 5 days. Very cold air building behind the major storm system in the Northern Plains.  The historic winter storm later this week remains on tap and data continues to be consistent with the idea of feet of snow in parts of the Dakotas.…
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10-4-19 Long-range: Details on concerning cold blast late next week…updated weeks 3/4 & early winter outlooks today. M.

10-4-19 Long-range: Details on concerning cold blast late next week…updated weeks 3/4 & early winter outlooks today. M.

Don't forget! Next Wednesday, October 9th, is our official client winter weather webinar at 11amET! Please join us by signing up at BAMwx.com/client-webinar!  Today's video (link: https://youtu.be/L0W8JB6q0ac): https://youtu.be/L0W8JB6q0ac PDF report (click link to the right to open in HD): 10-4-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Severe drought conditions are ongoing for much of the Southeastern US including parts of S. IN and KY.  Splotchy extreme drought conditions are also ongoing in parts of SE KY into AL, GA & SC. Extreme drought conditions also in Texas. Additional storm systems will keep the Northern Plains wet in week 1 – though there…
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10-1-19 Long-range: Discussing warmth & excessive rainfall risks for Oct…breaking down research vs data differences for Nov. M.

10-1-19 Long-range: Discussing warmth & excessive rainfall risks for Oct…breaking down research vs data differences for Nov. M.

Don't forget! Next Wednesday, October 9th, is our official client winter weather webinar at 11amET! Please join us by signing up at BAMwx.com/client-webinar!  Today's video (https://youtu.be/723HtwAAFGs): https://youtu.be/723HtwAAFGs PDF Report (click link to the right to open in HD): 10-1-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Excessive rainfall likely in parts of the Central Plains and Upper-Midwest today. Widespread Flash Flood Watches in effect. ”Cooler” period of weather likely into around Oct. 10th before warmth returns from west to east across the US.  With warmth ahead of the storm system Oct. 6 – 9, heating demand will generally remain below normal. A very…
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9-27-19 Long-range: October full pattern analysis…discussing excessive rains, record heat to frost potential & updated weeks 3/4 forecast. K.

9-27-19 Long-range: October full pattern analysis…discussing excessive rains, record heat to frost potential & updated weeks 3/4 forecast. K.

Don't forget to sign-up for our official client winter webinar Wed, Oct 9th at 11amET here! BAMwx.com/client-webinar/ Today's video: http://youtu.be/a25eEDEkdZE?hd=1 PDF Report (click link to the right to open in HD): 9-27-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Record warmth likely the next 7 days across the Deep South, Mid-Atlantic and Ohio/Tennessee Valley regions. Cooling demand will continue to fall for both week 1 and week 2 as we work through this record warmth. GWHDD forecasts begin on Monday. Frost/freeze risks will become more widespread especially in the Northern Plains/Upper-Midwest in early October following the Oct. 2 – 5 cold front. Cooler…
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9-24-19 Long-range: *Must see* video today…discussing increasing frost/freeze risks, excessive rains & latest Oct analogs. K.

9-24-19 Long-range: *Must see* video today…discussing increasing frost/freeze risks, excessive rains & latest Oct analogs. K.

Don't forget to sign-up for our official client winter webinar Wed, Oct 9th at 11amET here! BAMwx.com/client-webinar/ Today's video: http://youtu.be/vuVWX4ZvTYk?hd=1 PDF Report (click link to the report to the right to open in HD): 9-24-19 Long-range analysis   Key Points: Warmth this week builds in the Eastern US with major/record warmth by the weekend for the Ohio/TN Valley and Deep South. Cold air builds in the NW US into the Northern Plains late week 1 into week 2. It will generally remain very warm in the Central Plains and points east into early week 2.  A strong cold front will…
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9-20-19 Long-range: Discussing lengthy warmth ahead, excessive rainfall risks + updated weeks 3/4 / October forecasts. M.

9-20-19 Long-range: Discussing lengthy warmth ahead, excessive rainfall risks + updated weeks 3/4 / October forecasts. M.

Don't forget to sign-up for our official client winter webinar Wed, Oct 9th at 11amET here! BAMwx.com/client-webinar/ Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNILHwAEFEs&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Report (click link to the right to open in HD): 9-20-19 Long range analysis Key Points: Notable warmth this week in the Central US with most of the Ag Belt averaging 5 – 8F above normal.  Keeping an eye on the remnants of Tropical Storm Imelda that brought up to 32”+ of rain in Texas and will bring rain up into the Eastern Plains/Midwest later this week. Any cold fronts in the next week or two look to have…
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*Special Oct Rainfall Outlook Update. Major Rains Possible. Harvest Delays?*

*Special Oct Rainfall Outlook Update. Major Rains Possible. Harvest Delays?*

*Special Oct Rainfall Outlook Update. Major Rains Possible. Harvest Delays?* This afternoon ive been looking over some of our analogs that involve a similar MJO pattern to 2019 aka tropical forcing. One thing im growing increasingly concerned with is the possibility that MJO can stall out in phase 1 which has a statistically high correlation to very wet weather here in the Midwest in October. This pattern is actually somewhat very similar to Oct 2018. What catches my attention is these particular phases of the MJO are also notorious for Atlantic tropical activity and all it takes is 1 storm…
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