1-17-19 Long-range: Quick weekend winter storm update + latest February research & analysis. M.

1-17-19 Long-range: Quick weekend winter storm update + latest February research & analysis. M.

Agriculture, becks, Energy, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Premium Discussions, South Dakota, Texas, Weekly Energy Report, Weekly Farm Report
Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6eIr9LK9-KY PDF Slides (click link below to open in HD): 1-17-19 Long-Range Analysis Images: Key Points: Major winter storm likely this weekend with strong wind gusts and crashing temps behind the storm system.  Another storm system looks to develop early next week with perhaps another chance of accumulating snow possible for parts of the Midwest.  Active pattern for snow likely persists at least into the end of January with numerous shots of major cold likely behind storm systems.  Overall, the progression we’re seeing in the AAM and PV continues to be favorable for cold air diving south into…
Read More
1-14-19 Long-range: Eyeing another high impact winter storm into the weekend…very cold pattern settles in mid to late Jan. M.

1-14-19 Long-range: Eyeing another high impact winter storm into the weekend…very cold pattern settles in mid to late Jan. M.

Agriculture, becks, Energy, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Premium Discussions, South Dakota, Texas, Weekly Energy Report, Weekly Farm Report
Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62HzYiLdwWk&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Slides (click link below to open in HD): 1-14-19 Long-Range Analysis Images: Key Points: Very cold this morning for many in the Midwest following the major winter storm that dropped as much as 20” of snow in portions of Missouri.  Quieter weather the next couple of days, but a clipper system is possible Thursday – Friday for the Northern Plains/Midwest. Major winter storm possible this weekend from the Plains to the Ohio Valley with strong ensemble support. Lots of variability in model data so be sure to stay tuned to local reports.  This active storm track…
Read More
1-10-19 Long-range: Update on accumulating snow in the short-term + large support for colder trends & persistent wintry risks ahead. M.

1-10-19 Long-range: Update on accumulating snow in the short-term + large support for colder trends & persistent wintry risks ahead. M.

Agriculture, becks, Energy, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Premium Discussions, South Dakota, Texas, Weekly Energy Report, Weekly Farm Report
Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WpyuUwsGK5E&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF slides (click link below to open in HD): 1-10-19 Long-Range Analysis Images: Key Points: Cooler risks in the Eastern US persist this week related to MJO phase 8.  A storm system this weekend has led to winter storm watches in parts of Eastern Missouri and Southwest Illinois. Expect these to be expanded and upgraded over the next 24 hours.  A band of 8-12” of snow are possible in the areas under the watch with a widespread band of 5-8” through Central/Southern Illinois and Indiana.  Quieter period especially for the northern tier of the US over the…
Read More
1-7-19 Long-range: Discussing longevity of warmth for January & pattern progression update into February. M.

1-7-19 Long-range: Discussing longevity of warmth for January & pattern progression update into February. M.

Agriculture, becks, Energy, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, Weekly Energy Report, Weekly Farm Report
Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VSoeEKvbXes&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Slides (click link below to open in HD): 1-7-19 Long-Range Analysis Images: Warmth ahead of a storm system bringing rain to portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley today. Colder risks will develop in the Eastern third of the US for the next 5-7 days by mid this week and lead to a period of slightly above normal heating demand.  This period has sped up a bit related to a faster MJO progression, but it was originally targeted on Dec. 23 based on a period of +MT. However, given no real shift in the sub-tropical AAM…
Read More
1-3-18 Long-range: Breaking down the risks for warm/cold next 45 days. M.

1-3-18 Long-range: Breaking down the risks for warm/cold next 45 days. M.

Agriculture, becks, Energy, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Premium Discussions, South Dakota, Texas, Weekly Energy Report, Weekly Farm Report
Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTf05HdV7Es PDF slides (click link below to open in HD): 1-3-19 Long-Range Analysis Images: Heating demand nearly 40 points below the normal for week 1 as widespread and major CONUS warmth develops with some areas in the Northern Plains averaging more than 20F above normal over the next 5 days.  Still not seeing a super favorable pattern for winter weather risks across the Ohio Valley, though we’ll need to watch the storms systems in Mid-January because even in a warmer pattern, snow isn’t impossible especially given some cooler air with storms due to MJO phase 8. There are…
Read More
12-31-18 Long-range/Energy Report: Updated January thoughts, sifting through the continued model chaos in the extended. M.

12-31-18 Long-range/Energy Report: Updated January thoughts, sifting through the continued model chaos in the extended. M.

Agriculture, becks, Energy, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Premium Discussions, South Dakota, Texas, Weekly Energy Report, Weekly Farm Report
Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BObPQzK9jKA&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF slides (click link below to view in HD): 12-31 AM Energy Check-Up Images: Forecast blurb: We continue to see phase 5 MJO influences the first 5 days of the week with warmth in the Eastern US, but colder risks in the Central US. This will, however, be transitional, as warmth from phase 6 builds from the northwest and pushes southeast as we head towards the end of the week 1 period. A storm system early in week 2 will aid in some storm induced warmth in the Eastern US days 6-10 and will help keep GWHDDs…
Read More
12-27-18 Long Range: Updated research on pattern progression beyond week 2. B.

12-27-18 Long Range: Updated research on pattern progression beyond week 2. B.

Agriculture, becks, Energy, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Premium Discussions, South Dakota, States, Texas, Weekly Energy Report, Weekly Farm Report
Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aYUSW_uOw8I&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Slides (click link to open in HD): Images: 12-27 Long-Range Analysis Warmer than normal conditions in the Eastern US over then next 5 days, but colder air to end week 1 will allow HDDs to increase over the next few days. Colder air can funnel east as the MJO passes from phase 5 to 6, before warmer air will start to work into the west/northwest in week 2 in response to phase 6. Blizzard Warnings in effect for on going snow in the Plains this morning. Additional very heavy snow and strong winds likely. Strong winds…
Read More
12-20-18 Long-range: Discussing recent modeled colder changes & more great research on the AO/NAO from the SSWe. M.

12-20-18 Long-range: Discussing recent modeled colder changes & more great research on the AO/NAO from the SSWe. M.

Agriculture, becks, Energy, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Premium Discussions, South Dakota, Texas, Weekly Energy Report, Weekly Farm Report
Holiday schedule: Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vt-iG5zU1PQ PDF Slides (click link below to open in HD): 12-20-18 Long-Range Analysis Images: Key Points: Nearing our lowest point in GWHDD demand. Following the storm system moving through the Ohio Valley today and eventually the East Coast, some cooler air will move through the Eastern US and allow for GWHDDs to rise just below normal.  A very strong storm system mid-next week will help usher in a different look to the pattern. This pattern shift is likely due to MJO propagation into MJO phase 5. A ridge in the Eastern US will develop allowing this…
Read More
12-17-18 Long-range: Discussing latest thoughts on MJO/Polar Vortex influences on pattern into early Jan. K.

12-17-18 Long-range: Discussing latest thoughts on MJO/Polar Vortex influences on pattern into early Jan. K.

Agriculture, becks, Energy, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, Weekly Energy Report, Weekly Farm Report
*Longer video today, wanted to reiterate our special update that we issued on Saturday and the evolution of the pattern late month into early Jan. Key takeaways in the forecast that we need to watch: the speed of moving the MJO from phase 4 to 5, 6 and 7 and the Polar Vortex displacement/split lag. Have a blessed day! -Kirk Video: http://youtu.be/fdnsO00ox64?hd=1 Images: Week 1 Blurb: We’ve increased GWHDD demand slightly for the week 1 timeframe compared to Friday’s updates, most of this increase coming from the warmth relaxing on the East Coast and far South; much above normal temps…
Read More
12-13-18 Long-range: Analyzing potential impacts from the late month stratospheric warming event. M.

12-13-18 Long-range: Analyzing potential impacts from the late month stratospheric warming event. M.

Agriculture, becks, Energy, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Premium Discussions, South Dakota, Texas, Weekly Energy Report, Weekly Farm Report
Today's video: *In the very beginning of my video today I discuss why different vendors have different looking maps in terms of surface temps from normal. Here is the key take away..if the vendor is advertising above normal GWHDD demand in the 11-15 but their map shows a widespread warmth look you need to be seriously questioning the data and the provider because that logically does not make any sense. If you have any questions on this email me directly. Michael@bamwx.com  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfK3cUUow7g PDF Slides (click link below to open in HD): 12-13-18 Long-Range Analysis Images:
Read More