8-11-19 Nebraska Short Term Update:  Discussing the severe weather and heavy rainfall potential tonight.  MG.

8-11-19 Nebraska Short Term Update: Discussing the severe weather and heavy rainfall potential tonight. MG.

Good afternoon!  Here is your latest Nebraska Short Term Update Video.  Have a blessed day!  ~Matt http://youtu.be/xs8oZ4LLSr4?hd=1 Storms are beginning to fire just to the west in Colorado as well as an isolated cell in South Dakota.  Several of these storms are already tornado warned and severe warned as well.  Coverage of these storms is expected to pick up as we progress throughout the afternoon in western Nebraska.  A more organized line of storms is expected to for this evening and is forecasted to track along the Nebraska / Kansas border tonight into tomorrow morning.  All modes of severe weather…
Read More
8-10-19 Nebraska:  Heavy rainfall threat this afternoon/ tonight with some isolated strong storms… another round of strong storms tomorrow.  MG.

8-10-19 Nebraska: Heavy rainfall threat this afternoon/ tonight with some isolated strong storms… another round of strong storms tomorrow. MG.

Good afternoon! Here is a look at past 24 rainfall accumulations across the state. Here is a look at the current radar as of 4 PM CDT.  A strong cell just west of Grant, Nebraska is already ongoing and severe warned for 60 mph wind gust and quarter sized hail. An upper level ridge currently residing to the south will focus the upper level flow/ moisture for Nebraska this afternoon into tomorrow morning.  A piece of upper level energy (the area denoted in the red circle) will eject into this flow tonight providing extra lift on a surface boundary allowing…
Read More
8-9-19 KS/NE: Discussing the storm cluster risks this weekend and pattern into early next week. K.

8-9-19 KS/NE: Discussing the storm cluster risks this weekend and pattern into early next week. K.

Today's video: http://youtu.be/iko8iAL2juA?hd=1 Observed rainfall over the past 24 hours: Anticipated additional rainfall tonight will be mainly focused from Valentine to Sioux City and a couple counties south for NE Nebraska of 0.25-0.75" (iso 1-3" in spots are possible)...with a couple of these cells be potential strong to severe weather damaging winds and iso large hail: Here's the latest rainfall guidance through Tuesday is below...we've highlighted a couple areas as well where rain has already been observed and where we favor the total risks for 0.5-1.5" (iso 1.5-3" on the table too): Wind forecast guidance over the next 4 days…
Read More
8-9-19 Long-range: Warmer risks increasing ahead + concern growing for continued dryness to linger across the Midwest. Updated weeks 3/4. K.

8-9-19 Long-range: Warmer risks increasing ahead + concern growing for continued dryness to linger across the Midwest. Updated weeks 3/4. K.

Today's video: http://youtu.be/6vROaQXbKeQ?hd=1 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): Link: 8-9-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Latest Week’s ¾ Outlook Area of abnormally dry conditions have developed in the Midwest. Increasing heat and more dry weather into next week will likely exacerbate conditions.  Main flow will likely take storm clusters into the Upper-Midwest and Great Lakes. Much of the Central and Southern Plains + Ohio Valley may miss out on notable rain risks.  Warmer risks appearing likely for week 2 as well – though we’ll see a decent cold front ~Aug. 14 which will bring in a few…
Read More
8-8-19 Nebraska: Locally heavy rain possible today (especially west)…discussing storm cluster risks into the weekend. K.

8-8-19 Nebraska: Locally heavy rain possible today (especially west)…discussing storm cluster risks into the weekend. K.

Today's video: http://youtu.be/gO2B-4ZQeXU?hd=1 Observed rainfall over the past 24 hours: Simulated radar guidance for this afternoon into the overnight is below...as we mentioned in the video above we think things can respark along the frontal boundary from Scottsbluff to North Platte to Lincoln after 2pm local, some of these being locally heavy and strong in nature. After about 5-6pm the risk shifts mostly to areas to the west with a continued strong storm threat including damaging winds and large hail at times: Total rainfall guidance through Friday morning is below...the central slice of the state from North Platte to Lincoln…
Read More

8-7-19 Nebraska Short Term Update: Heavy rain possible along the NE/ KS border tonight… models have trended more south with the heavy rainfall since this morning. MG.

Good afternoon! Here is a look at the current radar as of 7:03 PM CDT.  An isolated cell in northeastern Nebraska looks to continue pushing east throughout the afternoon and should begin to diminish in intensity as daylight is lost.  In the panhandle, scattered storms are begging to enter from the west.   Models have trended the heavier precipitation just south of the Nebraska/ Kansas border for tonight.  While most of the heavy rain looks to fall across Kansas tonight, areas along the border may still see some heavy rain as a model's output cannot be taken verbatim.  However, because…
Read More
8-7-19 Nebraska: Eyeing additional heavy rainfall/strong storm risks tonight south & into the weekend ahead. K.

8-7-19 Nebraska: Eyeing additional heavy rainfall/strong storm risks tonight south & into the weekend ahead. K.

Today's video: http://youtu.be/_20i-b3Z48Y?hd=1 Observed rainfall over the past 24 hours: We anticipate another round of heavy and strong showers and storms fairly widespread along the Nebraska/Kansas border tonight into early Thursday morning...here's the latest simulated radar guidance that we prefer below...refer to the video for an hour-by-hour breakdown of timing. Some locally damaging winds and large hail, maybe an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as well: Total anticipated additional rainfall here is below, starting from western Nebraska heading east along the Kansas border should see a good potential for 1-3"...isolated higher amounts topping 3"+ will be on the table…
Read More
8-6-19 NE/KS/MO: Short Term Update Through Wednesday Evening.V.

8-6-19 NE/KS/MO: Short Term Update Through Wednesday Evening.V.

Good Tuesday evening!  A look at radar across the states shows that we are dealing with a line of storms that extends across South Central Missouri into E Kansas: As we work into the evening and overnight hours we are keeping a close eye on a storm cluster as it works its way S from the Dakotas. Below is simulated radar from 1 AM CT tomorrow morning until 7 PM CT Wednesday evening. : This is the current thinking as to where the best coverage can happen overnight and into tomorrow. The two biggest threats from this system look to…
Read More
8-6-19 Western Plains: Storm cluster / heavy rainfall risks increasing east in the short-term…drier areas west see relief potential as well? Latest here! K.

8-6-19 Western Plains: Storm cluster / heavy rainfall risks increasing east in the short-term…drier areas west see relief potential as well? Latest here! K.

Today's video: http://youtu.be/YB11QnRBsnY?hd=1 Observed rainfall over the past 24 hour: s Here's a quick snapshot of rainfall/storm risks over the net 2 days...please refer to the video for a highly detailed discussion and mention of the risks in the short-term. The best area of coverage looking like especially eastern Nebraska to eastern Kansas in a similar fashion to last week's storm cluster evolution. Western to central KS seeing the better potential Wed afternoon to evening: Favored rainfall potential over the next 2 days is below...the red circle is where we favor a base of 0.5-1.5" (however, localized spots of 2-4"+ and localized…
Read More
8-6-19 Long-range: Breaking down the conflicting signals regarding the 2nd half of Aug pattern evolution. M.

8-6-19 Long-range: Breaking down the conflicting signals regarding the 2nd half of Aug pattern evolution. M.

Today's video: https://youtu.be/b7Th4IIvgI4 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): Link: 8-6-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: We continue to keep an eye on West Pacific typhoon risks. A weak tropical cyclone looks to recurve this week and does get picked up by a trough which will likely aid in a cold front (Aug. 14 – 16) after our brief warm up into week 2.  It’s still TBD on how the pattern will react to the next two storms and data probably won’t get a complete handle on them until the first system is out later this week. We…
Read More