7-16-18 Nebraska/Kansas PM Update: Watching for scattered strong to severe storms to impact portions of the region this evening into tonight. I.

7-16-18 Nebraska/Kansas PM Update: Watching for scattered strong to severe storms to impact portions of the region this evening into tonight. I.

Kansas, Nebraska
Good Monday afternoon! This will be a quick update regarding this afternoon into tonight's storm threat. The small cluster of heavier showers and storms will continue to drift ESE exiting southeast KS by 5-6pm CDT this evening. Elsewhere, additional isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are expected to develop across KS and portions of southern NE with a bigger storm threat looming across western and central NE this evening. A shortwave trough will lift into the Western Plains this evening in a moderately unstable air mass coupled with decent vertical wind shear. This will cause initial development of discrete…
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7-16-18 Central Plains Forecast:  Unsettled pattern for the week ahead….details here. N.

7-16-18 Central Plains Forecast: Unsettled pattern for the week ahead….details here. N.

Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska
Today's video: http://youtu.be/99F2UaSg8-w?hd=1 Good Monday morning! A more active pattern returns this week compared to last week with multiple chances for storms over the next couple of days. We currently have an area of showers and storms located over southeastern KS slowly pushing ESE. Showers and storms, possibly severe, are expected to fire across western NE later today into this evening.   Excessive rainfall outlooks over the next 3 days: Storms develop tonight across northern/northwest Nebraska then dive south through the overnight: More rounds of heavy rain and storms through mid-week.  Here is a look at total rainfall through 7pm…
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7-15-18 KS/MO/NE Afternoon Update: Watching for isolated storm risks across portions of the area through this evening. I.

7-15-18 KS/MO/NE Afternoon Update: Watching for isolated storm risks across portions of the area through this evening. I.

Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska
Good Sunday afternoon! This will be a quick update regarding storm chances this afternoon into the evening. A majority of the region remains dry as of 12:20pm CDT with a few showers and embedded thunderstorms lingering across southeast MO, spotty showers along the KS/NE border, and a disturbance still impacting portions of northwest NE. Over the course of the next 3-4 hours, isolated showers and storms are expected to initiate across portions of southern MO through central KS northward into eastern NE while shower activity over northwest NE will fade. Widespread rains are not expected this afternoon and evening as…
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7-15-18 Central Plains Sunday Update: Isolated to scattered storms impact the region today through early next week…details here! I.

7-15-18 Central Plains Sunday Update: Isolated to scattered storms impact the region today through early next week…details here! I.

Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska
Good Sunday morning everyone! Radar remains most clear this morning as of 9am CDT with a couple notable exceptions being far northwestern NE where showers and embedded thunderstorms are influencing the region and the other being southern MO from the remains of yesterday evening's into last night's storms. Simulated radar through 1am CDT Monday: Morning convection across southern MO will continue to trek east while slowly weakening through the remainder of the morning. Showers and embedded storms across far northwestern NE will continue to impact that region during the course of the day before gradually weakening later this afternoon and…
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7-14-18 Central Plains Saturday Update: Scattered, heavy storms increase today for portions of the area with additional rain opportunities to end the weekend. I.

7-14-18 Central Plains Saturday Update: Scattered, heavy storms increase today for portions of the area with additional rain opportunities to end the weekend. I.

Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska
Good Saturday morning! Yesterday afternoon through early this morning brought some very beneficial rains to portions of the area. Many across southern IA and far northern MO were able to cash in on these rains with a few local spots picking up over 2.5"+ of rain. Additional heavy rains fell in central KS where upwards of 4" of rain were observed. Current radar as of 9:30am CDT: Most areas of convection have since died off since last night into early this morning. A few areas still picking up isolated rains include portions of eastern IA, far western MO, and southeastern…
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7-13-18 Central Plains Afternoon Update: Tracking scattered, heavy storms across portions of the area this evening with additional storms likely tomorrow. I.

7-13-18 Central Plains Afternoon Update: Tracking scattered, heavy storms across portions of the area this evening with additional storms likely tomorrow. I.

Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska
Good Friday afternoon everyone! Scattered showers and storms have fired as of 4pm CDT along a frontal boundary draped across the region from northeast IA southwest to central KS. Portions of far northern MO and southeastern IA are cashing in on some much needed rain with pop-up storms firing in the warm sector of this boundary. Scattered showers and storms are likely across IA into southeast NE, far northern MO, and northern/central KS through 7pm CDT before gradually weakening in intensity during the evening hours. At this time eastern IA has the best chance for some strong to severe storms…
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Word to the wise. Model errors floating around on Twitter are WAY TOO COLD. M.

Word to the wise. Model errors floating around on Twitter are WAY TOO COLD. M.

Agriculture, Energy, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota
Word to the wise. Model errors floating around on Twitter are WAY TOO COLD. M. The very cold EPS model runs you're seeing on social media were programmed wrong with a MASSIVE error in climo. The ECMWF climo system the model was using had a large bug and an email has been sent to ECMWF. We have worked with Ryan Maue from weathermodels.com to get this issue fixed and we have gotten it all taken care of. This is WHY our official outlooks have never been that cold to begin with but this is something we would never give away on Twitter.…
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7-13-18 Central Plains Forecast: Scattered storms increase today with local heavy rains…..storm risks continue into next week.  Details here. N.

7-13-18 Central Plains Forecast: Scattered storms increase today with local heavy rains…..storm risks continue into next week. Details here. N.

Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska
Video: http://youtu.be/dEceq52RLp8?hd=1 Scattered storms develop along a boundary draped southwest to northeast across the region especially mid-afternoon through the evening.   Rainfall amounts through Saturday morning: As we go through later Saturday afternoon through the night, we watch areas across southeast Iowa, central & northern Missouri, west into eastern Kansas for scattered heavy storms.  Forecast hourly radar from 1pm CDT Saturday to 7am CDT Sunday shown below.  Excessive rainfall forecast for Saturday shows the main areas to watch for highest storm chances Saturday:  While no model will be perfect, you can see the idea that there will be beneficial rains…
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7-12-18 MN/SD/NE/IA Evening Update: Strong to severe storm activity along with a heavy rain threat will ramp up over the next several hours. I.

7-12-18 MN/SD/NE/IA Evening Update: Strong to severe storm activity along with a heavy rain threat will ramp up over the next several hours. I.

Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, South Dakota
***This post fixes a mistake with the precipitation graphic and the issuance of a new watch*** Good Thursday evening! This will be a quick update regarding this evening into tonight's severe weather/heavy rain threat. Scattered showers and storms have fired within the last couple of hours along the frontal boundary across western NE with more storm activity developing in the last hour in eastern SD. Continued convection is still occurring in northern SD with additional storms firing in central MN. Over the next several hours more storms will fill in across northern NE, southeastern SD, and southern MN, and far…
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