4-18-19 Missouri: Heavy / strong storms remain focused in the SE parts of the state…otherwise dry & warmer weather sets in thru Easter Weekend. K.

4-18-19 Missouri: Heavy / strong storms remain focused in the SE parts of the state…otherwise dry & warmer weather sets in thru Easter Weekend. K.

Today's video: http://youtu.be/b61LabDy6nY?hd=1 Observed rainfall over the past 24 hours as of 5amCT: Remaining precipitation over the next 48 hours is below...a couple strong storms and heavy precipitation on the order of 1-2"+ is in store for SE parts of the state today into tonight: Wind forecast guidance next 4 days: Butler, MO temps / precip next 10 days: Maryville, MO temps / precip next 10 days: Columbia, MO temps / precip next 10 days: Poplar Bluff, MO temps / precip next 10 days:
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4-17-19 Missouri: Targeting severe storm & heavy rainfall potential tonight into Thursday. K.

4-17-19 Missouri: Targeting severe storm & heavy rainfall potential tonight into Thursday. K.

Today's video: http://youtu.be/cAs8GTcKp-o?hd=1 Late tonight into Thursday we have elevated risks for strong to severe storms including isolated tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds. We mentioned in today's video it's possible the "Enhanced" (orange color) risk gets pushed more into Missouri possibly from Joplin to Columbia given the very favorable ingredients: Total precipitation guidance through Thursday:
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4-16-19 Long-range: Warmer outlook to end April coupled with active precipitation risks. I.

4-16-19 Long-range: Warmer outlook to end April coupled with active precipitation risks. I.

Today's Video: http://youtu.be/vIAdMiNC8sw?hd=1 PDF Slides (click link below to open in HD): 4-4-19 Kirk Long range As an upper-level trough orients over the Eastern US this week, this will allow for the Central US to remain on the drier side with the enhanced precipitation risks shifting into the Eastern US and Eastern Ag Belt. Given the lower heights and sufficient moisture return for bouts of showers and stronger storms, temperatures will remain below normal in the Deep South. A stronger storm system lifting eastward across the AG Belt and Southern US mid-work week will be capable of producing strong to…
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4-16-19 Missouri: Generally dry and warm into mid-week before strong storm risks increase late Wednesday night. I.

4-16-19 Missouri: Generally dry and warm into mid-week before strong storm risks increase late Wednesday night. I.

Today's Video: http://youtu.be/8ZYofE8ePhg?hd=1 Here's the latest strong to severe storm threat for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The main risks with these storms will be damaging winds and large hail, but a few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out as well.  Total precipitation guidance through the next 7 days: Many areas are susceptible to 0.5-1.5" of rain during this period. Totals greater than 1.5" will be most likely in the Boot Heel and locations south/east. Of course with the case in any heavier/stronger storms, localized higher amounts will be possible. Wind forecast over the next four days: Temperature/precipitation charts over…
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4-15-19 Missouri: Warm & dry into mid-week…eye strong to severe storm risks late Wednesday night. K.

4-15-19 Missouri: Warm & dry into mid-week…eye strong to severe storm risks late Wednesday night. K.

Today's video: http://youtu.be/0M7TNAJU7eE?hd=1 The good news in the short-term is we are very dry, sunny and warm basically today through Wednesday AM. However, getting into late Wednesday AM into the evening our shower and storm activity increases from west to east slowly, and especially prominent Wednesday night into Thursday as the low pressure system swings through the state. Some strong to severe storms will be possible, along with heavy rainfall rates at times: Here's the latest strong to severe storm risk for Wednesday night into Thursday morning...the main risks will be damaging winds and pockets of large hail, a few…
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4-12-19 Long-range: Recapping this week’s blizzard…latest on a very stormy late April, updated weeks 3/4 forecast + discussing new summer data. K.

4-12-19 Long-range: Recapping this week’s blizzard…latest on a very stormy late April, updated weeks 3/4 forecast + discussing new summer data. K.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cG_F8iYvGnk&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Slides (click link below to open in HD): 4-12-19 Long range analysis Images: Key Points: Latest week’s ¾ Outlook in the slides below.  Leaning towards cooler risks into week 3, but warm ups with storm systems and into week 4 are favored. Wetter pattern developing for the Eastern third of the US over the next 7-10 days. Heaviest from the ARK-LA-TEX region into the Missouri Valley and Illinois/Indiana.  Moderate risk for severe weather in Northern Louisiana and Southern Arkansas. Outbreak of tornadoes is possible.  Central US will be cooler in week 1 with the East Coast…
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4-12-19 Missouri: Eyeing frost risks north Sat AM…targeting heavy rain & heavy snow north into the weekend. K.

4-12-19 Missouri: Eyeing frost risks north Sat AM…targeting heavy rain & heavy snow north into the weekend. K.

Today's video: http://youtu.be/MXzshUZojj4?hd=1 Freeze warnings hoisted across Northwestern parts of the state for Saturday morning...I think these could be expanded across the norther couple county rows of Missouri with temps getting around 30 or slightly below overnight tonight: Our weather today into Saturday morning stays quiet, however heavy rain/storms southeast, mixing in heavy, wet snow northwest will settle in Saturday evening into Sunday (click link below to open up the sim radar animation): Screen Recording 2019-04-12 at 6.57.34 AM Total precipitation guidance just through the weekend is below...especially south of I-70 we should be susceptible for 1.0-2.0" for most locations, isolated areas…
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4-11-19 Long-range: Blizzard update…also discussing the active pattern continuing ahead + pattern ideas into early May. K.

4-11-19 Long-range: Blizzard update…also discussing the active pattern continuing ahead + pattern ideas into early May. K.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afbVlwPQ62k&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Slides (click link below to open in HD): 4-11-19 Long range analysis Key Points: Blizzard continues in the Plains this morning with some areas likely seeing their all time highest snowfall for April.  As the snow melts over the next few weeks, flooding issues will likely exacerbate in Plains given saturated soils and continued snow melt. Greatest precipitation risks likely push into the eastern US related the next few weeks.  A sea surface temperature indicator off the coast of Western NA (The PMM), is very warm right now. This will help enhance the sub-tropical jet stream…
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4-11-19 Missouri: Windy day today with rain focused southeast…discussing frost & heavy rainfall risks heading into this weekend. K.

4-11-19 Missouri: Windy day today with rain focused southeast…discussing frost & heavy rainfall risks heading into this weekend. K.

Today's video: http://youtu.be/RDE-qPc9lqU?hd=1 Basically the entire state is under a wind advisory today, with wind gusts topping 40mph at times will be possible. A Red Flag warming Southwest has been issued as well, with elevated fire danger risk present in very dry air: Total precip here in short-term as the cold front works slowly east tonight...areas across the SE parts of the state may see up to 0.5-1.0" through tomorrow morningt: The northern 2/3 county rows pose a risk for frost Saturday morning as winds calm down and skies clear: Total precip through Monday is below...barring areas in far NW…
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