7-18-19 KS/MO: Extreme heat next 4 days….Sunday cold front brings storms followed by a sharp cool-down. N.

Video: http://youtu.be/UHvPRdWvI5I?hd=1 Rainfall over the past 24 hours: Breezy, exceptionally hot and overall dry through Saturday is the main theme.   Cold front brings most areas a rainfall Sunday....chances will be mainly in the late Saturday night through Monday AM time-frame.  Here's a look at current guidance for rainfall totals: Wind forecast over the next 4 days: Temperature data over the next 10 days: Kansas: Garden City: Salina: Topeka: Missouri cities: Nevada: Jefferson City: St. Louis:
Read More

7-17-19 Missouri Short Term Update: Storms continue to push southeast tonight… major heat setting in tomorrow through the weekend. MG.

Good Evening!  Here is your latest forecast update video: http://youtu.be/vjBbjnqc0YU?hd=1 Storms continue to push south east in eastern/ southern portions of the state this evening.  Some strong storms will be possible for the remainder of the night with strong winds and and heavy downpours.  Storms look to largely be out of the state by tomorrow morning.  Major heat is expected to develop for the remainder of the week with Heat Index values pushing 100+ F across much of the state. Here is a look at simulated radar from 8 PM CDT tonight through 4 AM tomorrow: Here is a look…
Read More
7-17-19 IA/MO: Risk of severe storms for some today….very intense heat and drier pattern settles in tomorrow. N.

7-17-19 IA/MO: Risk of severe storms for some today….very intense heat and drier pattern settles in tomorrow. N.

Video: http://youtu.be/SrUxpJKX_4s?hd=1 Good morning...our Wednesday begins with a storm cluster delivering strong winds and heavy rain across southeast South Dakota....just about to enter northwest Iowa as I type at 7am CDT.  A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for northwest Iowa, and certainly wouldn't be shocked to see this expanded southeast through the day.   Forecast radar snapshot through the day: Tonight, storm risks in Missouri will fade away, but we'll watch northeast Iowa for the threat of training storms and heavy rainfall as a cluster of storms dives southeast from Minnesota.  Forecast radar from 10pm tonight to 6am Thursday…
Read More
7-16-19 Long-range: A lot of ups-and-downs the next few weeks…details here. M.

7-16-19 Long-range: A lot of ups-and-downs the next few weeks…details here. M.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ex-ZhpxKmtA&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): Link: 7-16-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Some storms cluster risks as the ridge builds are increasing in portions of Iowa and Nebraska with rain ongoing in some areas this morning.  Heat really builds later this week with drier risks under the ridge in the Central Plains. Some northwest flow will develop as the ridge retracts early next week and brings some storm cluster risks into the Midwest and Eastern Plains.  We continue to watch for a cool-down in the pattern in week 2 related to a strongly –SOI…
Read More
7-15-19 Missouri: Short Term Update Through Tuesday Evening.V.

7-15-19 Missouri: Short Term Update Through Tuesday Evening.V.

Good Monday afternoon! A look at the latest radar as of 3:05 PM CT shows that the most widespread areas of rain have worked into Illinois and Indiana, leaving scattered showers and storms for SE MO. Just N of St. Louis is the one area still seeing decent coverage of more widespread rains: We are expecting to see the scattered rain chances continue this evening and most of the day tomorrow as the actual center of the low is still located in NW Arkansas. The center of low pressure will continue to work its way further N and E overnight…
Read More
7-15-19 Missouri: Heavy rains target SE areas through Tuesday – major heat wave/dry stretch coming mid-week through weekend. N.

7-15-19 Missouri: Heavy rains target SE areas through Tuesday – major heat wave/dry stretch coming mid-week through weekend. N.

Video: http://youtu.be/cXU_0JVV4CM?hd=1 Flash flood watch for SE Missouri into Tuesday evening: Forecast rainfall through Tuesday afternoon: Impressive amounts expected around St. Louis to Rolla to West Plains and points east with a widespread 1-3".  Local 4" amounts cannot be ruled out.  Meanwhile, the northwest portions of the state stay dry.   This disturbance will exit southeast Missouri Tuesday night.  A weak northwest aloft means we cannot rule out an isolated storm threat mainly in northwest areas early Wednesday, but that appears rather isolated. Overall, main story ahead is intense heat.  Highs near 100º mid to late week through the weekend…
Read More
7-14-19 Missouri: Short Term Update on Barry through Monday evening.V.

7-14-19 Missouri: Short Term Update on Barry through Monday evening.V.

Good Sunday afternoon! A quick check on radar as of 4:05 PM CT shows that we are looking at Barry starting to reach into the extreme SE parts of Missouri, with a broken line of showers and storms in the North/Central portions of the state: Our focus in the short term will be Barry. This now tropical depression will continue to work its way N with the center of the low pressure expected to cross into Missouri sometime overnight Monday into Tuesday. Rains will continue for most of the next 36 hours with the rain coming from the SSE and…
Read More
7-13-19 Missouri: Update regarding Barry, details here.V.

7-13-19 Missouri: Update regarding Barry, details here.V.

Good Saturday afternoon! A quick update on Barry, below is the timing and track that we think Barry will take over the course of the next several days: As mentioned in the graphic, we are starting to see more models come to agreement in the timing and placement of where the low will track. Below are 3 different "spaghetti" plots that show where each different model has the center of the low: The European model members and its "mean" (black line): The American model members and its "mean" (black/blue lines): A variety of models: All of our models have good…
Read More
7-12-19 KS/MO: SE Missouri to see heavy rain from Barry’s remnants….otherwise a very hot/dry pattern taking hold. N.

7-12-19 KS/MO: SE Missouri to see heavy rain from Barry’s remnants….otherwise a very hot/dry pattern taking hold. N.

Video: http://youtu.be/d1PSyLQ3lvw?hd=1 Quiet weather expected across the area this weekend.  We'll watch the remains of Barry to spread rain into the Missouri boot heel Sunday night, with rains expanding across southeast Missouri mainly I-44 and southeast on Monday/Monday night.  There will be additional scattered showers in the boot heel Tuesday, then Tuesday night it's moving away.  Total rainfall forecast through Tuesday night remains similar from yesterday's thoughts.  Sharp north/west cut-off!! Wind forecast over the next 4 days: Major heat is going to build especially starting Wednesday and lasting through early the following week.  Highs each day 95-105º, lows 74-83º.  …
Read More