8-20-19 Iowa: Short Term update through Wednesday Evening.V.

8-20-19 Iowa: Short Term update through Wednesday Evening.V.

Good Tuesday evening! A current check on radar shows that we are seeing some dry hours across the state with nothing impactful showing up on radar. We think we continue this trend of drier hours going through most of the overnight: As we work into the late overnight/ early morning hours we are expecting another cluster to work into the state. This time it looks like this cluster will originate from the SW portions of the state and work more along the IA/MO border, providing the majority of rain in the southern 2/3 of the state. We could certainly see…
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8-20-19 Iowa: Severe storms exiting this AM…pm sun…heavy storms for southwest Iowa late tonight. N.

8-20-19 Iowa: Severe storms exiting this AM…pm sun…heavy storms for southwest Iowa late tonight. N.

Video: http://youtu.be/oxUBVtCwfE8?hd=1 Observed rain as of 8AM CT: Storm reports so far: Additional rainfall this morning (as of 8AM Local time through about noon): Wednesday morning, we'll see heavy showers and storms target southwest Iowa, sparking after 2am and being quite heavy through lunch-time.  Flash flooding will be possible.  Here is the latest data regarding rainfall late tonight through Wednesday night....ranging from nothing northeast to local 2-4" southwest.   Dry and more pleasant Thursday-most of Saturday!  We'll see an active pattern early next week, all ahead of a stronger cold front to close the month.  As shown in the video,…
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8-20-19 Long-range: Discussing short-term strong storm cluster risks + increasing MJO influence ahead late month into September. K.

8-20-19 Long-range: Discussing short-term strong storm cluster risks + increasing MJO influence ahead late month into September. K.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dGWL8I1-WDI&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): Link: 8-20-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: A few more warmer days to begin this week before the cold front mid-late this week which will bring a blast of cooler air into the Ag Belt. Active pattern in the short-term for a good portion of the Ag Belt as the ridge of high pressure trended less robust than initially forecasted. A round of severe storms this morning and today are possible into the Ohio Valley. Overnight data trended much cooler again given of more confidence in the Increasing likelihood…
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8-19-19 IA/MO: Watching for a storm cluster overnight and into Tuesday.V.

8-19-19 IA/MO: Watching for a storm cluster overnight and into Tuesday.V.

Good Monday afternoon! Here is a look at current radar- right now we are seeing only seeing in precip in MO right now with scattered showers and storms in SE MO: Our focus for the overnight hours and into tomorrow is a strong storm cluster that looks to form in NW IA and then dive southeast during tomorrow. In the image below, we are favoring the area in orange/red to have the best chances of seeing severe weather, with the area in yellow having lesser chances. This does not mean locations outside the orange circle cannot see severe weather, however…
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8-19-19 Iowa/Missouri: Targeting a potent cluster of storms to impact the area late tonight-Tuesday….details here. N.

8-19-19 Iowa/Missouri: Targeting a potent cluster of storms to impact the area late tonight-Tuesday….details here. N.

Video: http://youtu.be/dyfTbAxPVP4?hd=1 Mainly dry today, expect a cluster of storms to develop late tonight over Iowa, dropping east southeast into northeast and eastern Missouri through the day Tuesday.  The map below gives you a rough idea on timing and area: Rainfall potential: This will be a heavy hit for central Iowa Tuesday morning. Additional shots target Missouri and clip southwest Iowa Wednesday-Thursday: Total rain through Friday: Wind forecast over the next 4 days: Temperature data: Iowa: Spencer: Des Moines: Mt. Pleasant: Missouri: Chillicothe: St. Joseph: Joplin: Jefferson City: St. Louis:
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8-18-19 Iowa: Cooler and drying out today and tomorrow.V.

8-18-19 Iowa: Cooler and drying out today and tomorrow.V.

Good Sunday Afternoon!  A current look at radar shows that we are seeing some very light and scattered activity across SE IA. Almost all of our precip has fizzled/ moved out of the state: 24 hours rainfall estimates. These are derived from the intensity of a storm on radar so they are not going to be exact down to your location. Overall we saw much of the state pick up over o.5 inches of rain, the heaviest of totals coming just to the SW of Des Moines: For the rest of the day, we think the overwhelming majority of the state stays dry. We do…
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8-17-19 Iowa Short Term Update:  Strong storms expected in Iowa late tonight into the morning hours of Sunday.  MG.

8-17-19 Iowa Short Term Update: Strong storms expected in Iowa late tonight into the morning hours of Sunday. MG.

Good afternoon! Here is a current look at the radar.  Some weak storms are currently tracking east across the state.  There is a minimal risk for severe weather with this group of storms. These storms look to continue pushing east with the upper level energy this afternoon/ evening. The main threat for storms will be along an advancing cold front that is currently in South Dakota.  These storms are forecasted to travel southeast into Iowa along an impressive instability gradient currently set up from northeastern Nebraska to southwestern Minnesota.  As this cold front enters IA later tonight, the primary risk…
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8-16-19 Iowa: Discussing storm cluster risk overnight tonight.V.

8-16-19 Iowa: Discussing storm cluster risk overnight tonight.V.

Good Friday evening! A current look at radar shows that we are seeing some spotty storms in S IA right now: As we go through the night, we are watching for the potential of a storm cluster to work near the IA/MO border. We want to make it clear that data is handling this cluster location and the timing poorly, even with this storm system only 12 hours out. The thought with today's AM update was the extent of the precip to stay in MO, but since then we have seen data favor more precip coming further North, into the…
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8-16-19 Nebraska/Iowa: Discussing short-term potent storm cluster risks into the weekend…drier trend into early next week. K.

8-16-19 Nebraska/Iowa: Discussing short-term potent storm cluster risks into the weekend…drier trend into early next week. K.

Today's video: http://youtu.be/6HoGSfTOtuw?hd=1 Observed rainfall over the past 24 hours: Not impressive overall today regarding widespread rainfall chances going forward as substantial dry air is starting to work into the area...we made a quick 6 panel regarding a snapshot of rainfall and storm coverage late tonight for SE Nebraska but mostly for Saturday evening into the pre-dawn hours Sunday for the risk for flash flooding and strong to severe storms to pop across SE Nebraska to western and SW Iowa mostly (weakens as the wave pushes east into Sunday AM). Totals generally range between 1.0-3.0" from SE of Lincoln to…
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8-16-19 Long-range: Updated week’s 3/4 forecast (cooler risks increasing?) + fresh September to October analogs. M.

8-16-19 Long-range: Updated week’s 3/4 forecast (cooler risks increasing?) + fresh September to October analogs. M.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16F82V2R3vQ&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): Link: 8-16-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Increasing heat this weekend and into early next week for much of the Ag Belt related to a previous –AAM drop and westward moving typhoon. However, this heat will be short-lived as recurving typhoon Korsa will likely bring a strong cold front later next week. Data has trended substantially cooler the past few runs for the end of next week and into the weekend related to the typhoon recurve. Wouldn’t be surprised to see further cooler changes but confidence increasing on a…
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