9-20-19 Long-range: Discussing lengthy warmth ahead, excessive rainfall risks + updated weeks 3/4 / October forecasts. M.

9-20-19 Long-range: Discussing lengthy warmth ahead, excessive rainfall risks + updated weeks 3/4 / October forecasts. M.

Don't forget to sign-up for our official client winter webinar Wed, Oct 9th at 11amET here! BAMwx.com/client-webinar/ Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNILHwAEFEs&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Report (click link to the right to open in HD): 9-20-19 Long range analysis Key Points: Notable warmth this week in the Central US with most of the Ag Belt averaging 5 – 8F above normal.  Keeping an eye on the remnants of Tropical Storm Imelda that brought up to 32”+ of rain in Texas and will bring rain up into the Eastern Plains/Midwest later this week. Any cold fronts in the next week or two look to have…
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*Preliminary first take on Winter 19-20*

*Preliminary first take on Winter 19-20* Today we wanted to share with you what our current research is telling us for the upcoming Winter season. As always outlooks in September are largely up for grabs but the things we look at today are more from a historical analog stand point. Please be sure to register for the Winter outlook webinar exclusive to paying clients Wed Oct 9th 11am EDT. Register here: https://bamwx.com/client-webinar/ Click here for the PDF of our Prelim Winter 19-20.
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9-13-19 Long-range: More heat in the short term. Latest details on tricky Week’s 3/4, conflicting pattern drivers into October. B.

9-13-19 Long-range: More heat in the short term. Latest details on tricky Week’s 3/4, conflicting pattern drivers into October. B.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJ2ZS-Woz_g&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): Friday-The-13th Long Range Key Points: Following today’s cold front warmth will rebuild Sunday and early next week with well above normal temperatures developing from the North-Central US into the Deep South. Days 2 – 7 will likely average 8-12F above normal for the majority of the Ag Belt. Continued dry conditions in the Ohio Valley combined with hot weather will quickly dry out soils. High temperatures will likely also continue to overachieve with the dry soils heating up faster. Appearing more likely that tropical activity will go out…
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9-10-19 Long-range: Warming up ahead…breaking down new, in-depth research on the late Sept into Oct pattern progression. K.

9-10-19 Long-range: Warming up ahead…breaking down new, in-depth research on the late Sept into Oct pattern progression. K.

Today's video (http://youtu.be/osKZKrtfCBY?hd=1): http://youtu.be/osKZKrtfCBY?hd=1 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): Link: 9-10-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Warmth builds from the south throughout this week with well above normal temperatures in the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions. Many areas get into the 90s this week. The Northern Plains generally stay seasonable to below normal in temperatures. Very wet in the week 1 period for the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest as ridging to the south pushes precipitation chances north. This will lead to dry conditions in the Ohio, Missouri and Tennessee Valley regions as well as the Deep South.…
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9-6-19 Long-range: Breaking down the conflicting signals ahead…going against the grain w/ updated weeks 3/4 forecast. M.

9-6-19 Long-range: Breaking down the conflicting signals ahead…going against the grain w/ updated weeks 3/4 forecast. M.

Today's video (https://youtu.be/m6TseFHIBYg): https://youtu.be/m6TseFHIBYg PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): Link: 9-6-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Now Category 1 Hurricane Dorian is close to making landfall on the outer banks of North Carolina near Ocracoke.  Into early next week the cooler air that has settled in over the Northern US and Midwest will push out and conditions will warm up substantially from north to south. Warm up looks to be related to the MJO moving away from cooler phases and into the Equatorial Pacific which is a warm signal when combined with the –AAM state. This will…
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9-3-19 Long-range: Latest Dorian details, warming up in the medium-range + updated research for late Sept / October risks. M.

9-3-19 Long-range: Latest Dorian details, warming up in the medium-range + updated research for late Sept / October risks. M.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tf2LPvsZAY4&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): Link: 9-3-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Hurricane Dorian continues to linger over the Bahamas now as a category 3 storm. It will miss the Florida coast but residents in the Carolinas still need to keep a very close eye on Dorian as it will continue to ride the coast this week.  A few warmer days and then a strong cold front will lead to a generally cooler week 1 period – though warmth remains in the southern US.  We still look to see a notable warm up on…
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8-30-19 Long-range: Latest Hurricane Dorian analysis + updated weeks 3/4 + final September forecasts. M.

8-30-19 Long-range: Latest Hurricane Dorian analysis + updated weeks 3/4 + final September forecasts. M.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1nQEkBIuB8&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): Link: 8-30-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Week 1 features below normal temperatures in the Central and Northern Plains, Midwest and into the Northeast. Warmer temperatures north of Dorian in the southeast for a time and notable warmth of the West Coast which helps keeping cooling demand above normal. Dorian helps deprive the South-Central US and TN Valley of moisture and keeps these areas very dry the next 7 days. As we begin to build warmth at the end of week 2, we do develop some southwest flow into…
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8-27-19 Long-range: Support growing for strong mid Sept cold front. A look ahead to early Winter. M.

8-27-19 Long-range: Support growing for strong mid Sept cold front. A look ahead to early Winter. M.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oav3d5hTmg&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): Link: 8-27-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Week 1 features widespread below normal temperatures with the core of the coolest air located in the Central and Northern Plains. West Coast warmth helps keep cooling demand between the 10 and 30 year normal values. Drier period after rain this morning in the Ohio Valley associated with a cold front. Week 2 precipitation will likely be variable depending on how storm clusters evolve. There will be a brief transient ridge ahead of the next cold front ~Sep. 5 – 8 which…
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8-23-19 Long-range: Sharing update weeks 3/4 + Sept forecasts today…discussing frost threats, tropical activity & GDD / CDD potential ahead. K.

8-23-19 Long-range: Sharing update weeks 3/4 + Sept forecasts today…discussing frost threats, tropical activity & GDD / CDD potential ahead. K.

Today's video: http://youtu.be/xsKj2_hR0Lk?hd=1 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): Link: 8-23-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: The cold front will continue to progress southward throughout the day today lending to a much cooler and drier weekend ahead for much of the Ag Belt. Data continues to have a strong cooler signal for the week 2 with support from previous +AAM tendencies, the previous –AAM/MJO 1 and a cool east Asia. We believe that data may be a little off with week 2 precipitation. With the current week 1 further south than data originally suggested with precipitation and the…
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8-20-19 Long-range: Discussing short-term strong storm cluster risks + increasing MJO influence ahead late month into September. K.

8-20-19 Long-range: Discussing short-term strong storm cluster risks + increasing MJO influence ahead late month into September. K.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dGWL8I1-WDI&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): Link: 8-20-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: A few more warmer days to begin this week before the cold front mid-late this week which will bring a blast of cooler air into the Ag Belt. Active pattern in the short-term for a good portion of the Ag Belt as the ridge of high pressure trended less robust than initially forecasted. A round of severe storms this morning and today are possible into the Ohio Valley. Overnight data trended much cooler again given of more confidence in the Increasing likelihood…
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