7-16-19 Long-range: A lot of ups-and-downs the next few weeks…details here. M.

7-16-19 Long-range: A lot of ups-and-downs the next few weeks…details here. M.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ex-ZhpxKmtA&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): Link: 7-16-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Some storms cluster risks as the ridge builds are increasing in portions of Iowa and Nebraska with rain ongoing in some areas this morning.  Heat really builds later this week with drier risks under the ridge in the Central Plains. Some northwest flow will develop as the ridge retracts early next week and brings some storm cluster risks into the Midwest and Eastern Plains.  We continue to watch for a cool-down in the pattern in week 2 related to a strongly –SOI…
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7-12-19 Long-range: Discussing a big warm-up/drier risks ahead, increased storm cluster potential + updated weeks 3/4 & August outlooks. M.

7-12-19 Long-range: Discussing a big warm-up/drier risks ahead, increased storm cluster potential + updated weeks 3/4 & August outlooks. M.

**We absolutely encourage everyone to check out and read all of the notes slides and watch all of the video, as we poured significant research into why the 2nd half of July has evolved more with warmer / less excessively wet risks, pattern favoring larger storm clusters ahead (derechos), updated weeks 3/4 forecast into early August and our latest updated August forecast. Have a blessed weekend! -Kirk Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJ6fLrfjlzo&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): 7-12-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Barry remains disorganized this morning but still looks to make landfall as a tropical storm or…
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7-9-19 Long-range: Updated “Barry” tropical influences ahead. Watching late July cooler risks. M.

7-9-19 Long-range: Updated “Barry” tropical influences ahead. Watching late July cooler risks. M.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Apcm7zdHSQ0&feature=youtu.be PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): 7-9-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Continuing to keep a very close eye on the potential development of Tropical Storm Barry in the Gulf of Mexico in the week 1 period. Where this tracks will have big impacts on sensible weather for much of the the Deep South unto the Missouri and Ohio Valley.  Not out of the question for this to tack into the aforementioned regions and lead to a heavy rain maker and also produce briefly cooler temperatures for these regions.  However, confidence remains low on the…
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6-27-19 Long-range: Extensive research unveiled today on official July thoughts + latest ENSO research / Aug – Oct forecast thoughts. K.

6-27-19 Long-range: Extensive research unveiled today on official July thoughts + latest ENSO research / Aug – Oct forecast thoughts. K.

***I wanted to make sure everyone received this long-range update / video today as we unveil some extensive research on not just the July pattern as a whole (we will issue our final July and weeks 3/4 still on Friday that you will receive)...but especially August, September and October with the intensions of this "El Nino" pattern overall continuing. Please make sure to watch the whole video, our team has put some serious research into this pattern ahead, and it's shown this year with our verifications doing very well. Have a blessed day! -Kirk Today's video: http://youtu.be/NndoLi0WnGc?hd=1 PDF Report (click…
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6-25-19 Long-range: Pattern next ~2 weeks warming & not as “excessive” w/ rainfall…discussing mid-July big pattern shift + latest August research. K.

6-25-19 Long-range: Pattern next ~2 weeks warming & not as “excessive” w/ rainfall…discussing mid-July big pattern shift + latest August research. K.

**Make sure to check out the 2 notes slides towards the bottom with latest research for July and August pattern progression thoughts. Have a blessed day! -Kirk Today's video: http://youtu.be/6HEqWiz2bvo?hd=1 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): 6-25-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Still need to watch for some storm clusters across the Midwest the next few days – but pattern is not quite as active as previous weeks with more spots missing out on rain than most of June. Pattern for the first week of July is shaping up to be warmer in the East and Northern Plains…
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6-21-19 Long-range: Updated weeks 3/4 + July forecasts today…discussing pattern drivers into a tricky month ahead. M.

6-21-19 Long-range: Updated weeks 3/4 + July forecasts today…discussing pattern drivers into a tricky month ahead. M.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_zySBgdlp4&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): 6-21-19 Long-range Analysis Key Points: Multiple excessive rainfall risks for parts of the Plains and Ohio Valley over then next 3 days. Multiple storm clusters remain likely with two working through parts of KS/NE/IA/MO which will continue to push east this morning.  Cooler risks will begin to shift westward over the next 7 days related to MJO phase 7.  More seasonable to slightly above normal temperatures will build in the East and North Central US. In week 2 we build warmth in the Northern Plains and Great Lakes…
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6-18-19 Long-range: Cool / very active pattern over the next week…brief warmth targeted late month + updated July research. M.

6-18-19 Long-range: Cool / very active pattern over the next week…brief warmth targeted late month + updated July research. M.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xvoq0zon2g&feature=youtu.be&hd=1 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): 6-18-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Slight risk for Excessive Rainfall in Kansas, SE Nebraska, SW Iowa and Northern Oklahoma today. Slight risk for Excessive rainfall in Illinois, Indiana, East MO, West OH tomorrow. Cooler than normal temperatures remain likely for the Ag Belt in week 1 with cooling demand still below the 10 and 30 year normal values.  Core of the coolest air will shift westward throughout the week with more southeast ridge influence as we work towards the last week of June.  This will lead to a…
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6-14-19 Long-range: Updated weeks 3/4 + July pattern discussion…key features returning with a very active pattern ahead. K.

6-14-19 Long-range: Updated weeks 3/4 + July pattern discussion…key features returning with a very active pattern ahead. K.

Today's video: http://youtu.be/6jWY9q8CkQo?hd=1 PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): 6-14-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: We’ve added yet another storm date via East Asia giving us 6 total to close out the month of June in what will become an extremely active pattern beginning this weekend.  Temperatures remain below normal for the vast majority of the AG Belt on average for the next 7 days.  Models continue to waffle with the forecast in week 2 with variable cooler and warmer trends over the past several days. Generally we lean on the cooler side – but note that at…
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6-11-19 Long-range: Pattern drivers pointing towards a very wet pattern late June into July…latest here. M.

6-11-19 Long-range: Pattern drivers pointing towards a very wet pattern late June into July…latest here. M.

Today's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5Pb5ERIm-c PDF Report (click link below to open in HD): 6-11-19 Long range analysis Key Points: Wetter trends on the models into mid / late June as we increase the Pacific jet stream extension and Southeast ridge again (clashing of air masses similar to May’s pattern evolution). Favored European Ensemble model continues to rebuild in the Southeast Ridge nicely into the week 2 timeframe, continuing to move the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) through Phases 4-5-6 ahead. Updated European weeklies, shown below, continuing our idea for a return of the Southeast Ridge similar to May, into early July…resulting in…
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6-4-19 Long Range: Heavy Rain Risk + Cooling Temperatures details within. M.

Good Tuesday morning here is your latest long range video update: http://youtu.be/vOPbnISiCB8?hd=1 Week 1: •The Northern Plains will be the warmest portion of the Ag Belt in week 1. Cooler risks confined south due to increased precipitation with a cut-off upper low over the Ark-La-Tex late week. •Most of the Belt averages near normal, with warmer than normal lows through the weekend. Week 2: •Cooler air invades the Ag Belt from west to east next week, with MJO/ENSO/AAM analogs highly supportive of a cool pattern throughout week 2 into week 3.  •GEFS is likely too warm in week 2 as it…
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