12-10-19 Long-range: Updated week’s 3/4 forecast & expected model chaos ahead. M.

12-10-19 Long-range: Updated week’s 3/4 forecast & expected model chaos ahead. M.

Today's video: https://youtu.be/hJ-52jVT_K8 PDF report (click link to the right to open in HD): 12-10-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: A few weak waves to track in the Midwest this week with some light snow chances. Data hints that the system next week could bring snow chances to someone in the Midwest/Ohio/TN Valley. This is possible given brief period of a –AO. The North Pacific continues to favor warmer risks for the week 2 period especially in the Eastern US. A poleward shift of the jet is favored in week 2 which favors more mild Pacific air into the Eastern US.…
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12-10-19 Tovar Springfield-Decatur: Watching light snow potential Wed AM, latest thoughts on possible system late week/weekend.V.

Video: http://youtu.be/f2vvBZwrtAs?hd=1 Current wind chills: Forecast radar from 4am to noon Wednesday shows a "streak" of snow showers working from the Quad cities east, southeast along I-80, exiting by noon.  Minor coatings of snow on paved areas will be the concern as this passes.   Wind forecast over the next 4 days: We'll watch a system from Friday night-Saturday night which could bring some wintry weather, mainly over the northern part of the state as we see a punch of colder air return Saturday-Saturday night.  Still too early to talk amounts.  A southern stream system may brush portions of the…
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12-9-19 Tovar Springfield/Decatur: Dramatic temperature drop this evening….snow shower chances north mid-week. N.

12-9-19 Tovar Springfield/Decatur: Dramatic temperature drop this evening….snow shower chances north mid-week. N.

Today's Video: Additional rainfall totals today: Temperature forecast 3pm - midnight: Watching a wave of snow showers potentially for areas along/north of I-80 Wednesday morning 4am to 11am CT.  A coating to 1" would be possible, & given very cold air in place it won't take much to cause a thin coating of snow on pavement.   Wind forecast over the next 4 days: Temperatures over the next 10 days:
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12-7-19 Tovar Springfield-Decatur: Quiet weather today, discussing precip chances Monday.V.

Good Saturday Morning! Here is your latest forecast update: http://youtu.be/VmlA4gVwrmQ?hd=1 A look at current temps as of 5:00 AM CT: Highs today: Winds will be coming out of the SE at 5-10 MPH: Next chance for precip works into the state late Sunday. Sim radar from Sun night through Tuesday night: Precip totals for this event Monday: Snow totals- please watch video for latest thoughts: Watching for a shot of arctic air mid next week- low temps Wed AM:
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12-6-19 Long-range: Updated weeks 3/4 forecast and growing confidence for a cold and stormy pattern. M.

12-6-19 Long-range: Updated weeks 3/4 forecast and growing confidence for a cold and stormy pattern. M.

Today's video: https://vimeo.com/377781840 PDF report (click link to the right to open in HD): 12-6-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Storm system early next week brings the next best chance of snow for the Northern Plains and rain in the TN Valley. Tropospheric polar vortex influence after the cold front early next week. This will bring a big blast of cold air to the Midwest. Widespread below zero temperatures in the Northern Plains.  Combination of MJO Phase 2, -AAM and location of the stratospheric Polar Vortex will favor Pacific blocking and cold air intrusions in week 2. Differences in the GEFS/EPS…
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12-6-19 Tovar Springfield-Decatur: Overall quiet through the weekend, rain showers likely Monday.V.

Good Friday Morning! Below is your latest forecast update: http://youtu.be/0dFz3kYG370?hd=1 Current radar: Sim radar out through 7 PM ET today: Precip totals through today: A rather quiet weekend is in store, we are watching our next system to work in early Monday through Tuesday evening that could provide some back end snow showers Mon eve/ Tue AM: Precip totals out through Tuesday evening- please watch video for the latest thoughts: Wind panel over the next 4 days: Temperature charts for the next 10 days: Springfield: Decatur:
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12-5-19 Tovar Decatur – Springfield: Eyeing a strong cold front next week… latest thoughts here. MG.

Video: http://youtu.be/gOntse6N8ys?hd=1 Forecast rain totals tonight-Friday AM: Wind forecast over the next 4 days: After a dry weekend, we'll see light showers Sunday night through Monday night, mixing with snow showers north as it exits Tuesday Morning.  Right now it looks like most of the sticking snows stay in Wisconsin, but wouldn't rule out the far north seeing minor snow.   We go from 50s Sunday into Monday to single digits & teens by Wednesday AM, then back to 40º Thursday.  Big-time swings next week! Precipitation over the next week: Temperatures over the next 10 days:
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12-4-19 Tovar Decatur – Springfield: Breezy and sunny today…patchy frz. fog south Thurs. AM, discussing big weather changes early next week. MG.

Illinois Video: http://youtu.be/tgb5mbPM9wc?hd=1 Sunny skies, strong breezes from the west 10-20mph, gusts to 30mph for today.  Highs 40s to 50.  Tonight, winds will slacken off and become calm after midnight.  This sets the stage for patchy, dense freezing fog for portions of southern Illinois late tonight-Thursday AM.  Isolated black ice on bridges/overpasses as it will be a heavy frost and patchy fog type of morning.  Now for most of us, we'll just have a frosty morning with little to no fog. Forecast radar from 6pm Thursday to 7am Friday shows a few showers that will work across the southern third…
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12-3-19 Long-range: Discussing big modeled colder changes ahead & updated weeks 3/4 forecast. M.

12-3-19 Long-range: Discussing big modeled colder changes ahead & updated weeks 3/4 forecast. M.

Today's video: https://youtu.be/LyaoC2VGUyg PDF report (click link to the right to open in HD): 12-3-19 Long-range analysis Key Points: Week 1 will be very quiet for most of the country. Weak cold fronts will favor cooler risks on the East Coast though warmth will build from west to east throughout the week. Overnight data has trended substantially colder in the week 2 period with a seemingly big win for the GEFS. Data suggests a potential tropospheric polar vortex influence after the cold front early next week. This will bring a big blast of cold air to the Midwest. The MJO…
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