Good evening! A swath of inundating rains continues to persist across the Cincy metro area as of 10pm EDT. The rains are from the remnants of Gordon and a pre-existing frontal boundary working through the region. Over the next several hours, we expect persisting heavier rains to work out of the southeastern Indiana/far northern Kentucky into Cincinnati.
Here’s a look at the simulated radar through 11pm EDT Sunday: Heavy, inundating rains will continue to lift through the city during the overnight hours with some lingering light/moderate rains likely to follow Sunday morning given a stout low-level jet and forcing mechanism in the region. Models have had a poor handle on the evolution of these rains as observations indicate that the speed of the rains is faster than depicted on the models. There is also a negating factor for additional rains Sunday morning as drier air tries to encroach on the western edge of this storm system. Regardless, given isentropic lift (vertical motion over a frontal boundary that leads to clouds and precipitation), we favor lingering rains Sunday morning. The heaviest rains are expected east of Cincy after 2pm EDT with some patches of lighter rains and even scattered storm development possible onwards. A storm or two may track over the ballpark during the early portions of the 4pm game, but even this activity will lift out to the east after ~5-6pm EDT. The latter half of the game has the best potential for staying drier. Rains will continue to work eastward Sunday evening with southwestern Ohio finally drying out (though a stray shower or two may remain). While not a large threat, we can’t rule out a few storms in the area tomorrow afternoon and more eastward during the evening becoming strong with gusty winds and hail. A brief spin-up tornado is possible.
Here’s a custom graphic depicting the exit times for the heaviest rains. Please note that this does not show when all rains exit but when we think the heaviest has passed. ~2pm EDT is when we think the heaviest rains will pass Cincinnati, but as stated previously, lighter rain risks and even a couple storms can’t be ruled out after this time.
Total rainfall through 11pm EDT Sunday: An additional 1-3″ of rain is expected for Cincinnati with locally higher amounts possible if the heaviest storms can persist across the city. Please note that most of this rain will come through Sunday morning.
Temperatures during the game tomorrow will be quite low due to the rains inducing cooler air. Look for temperatures to hover in the mid 60s throughout the game with not much in the way of recovery during the latter portions of the game.
Models are hinting at a calmer area of wind (due to close proximity of the surface low) across the Cincy area during the game time tomorrow. However, any slight deviations in track can lead to stronger wind gusts of 25-35 mph. Winds will likely be gusty in the morning before this decline occurs in the afternoon.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your evening!