#INwx #OHwx Very complex #winter storm this weekend. Pattern remains active next week. M.
Synopsis: Apologize for the late forecast this morning but this storm system is proving to be quite the bear. Precip on radar tonight will initially be virga across the area aka precip that doesnt hit the ground due to very dry low levels of the atmosphere. I think precip threats increase ~10pm and beyond. The video is 8 mins today but 6 of those mins I spend dissecting this storm system so please pay close attention to the video this morning. Flash freeze risk is high Saturday night and we watch 2 clippers next week that could POSSIBLY bring snow into the area so check back.
An idea of radar tonight by 10pm..its possible the onset of precipitation is even closer to 10/11 given the profiles I see right now but will tread on side of caution for now and update again around 3/4 today.
You can see with hourly temps just how quickly it warms up. Ill give you some help 06Z is 1am and 12Z is 7am.
Heres a visual of temps also from tonight to Sunday AM.
Total liquid from this event. ( It will be enough to wash away salt so keep that in mind Sat night.)
Official forecast map for now. A mix of sleet and ICE is expected but duration looks to be < 4-6hrs at the moment.
Need to watch 2 systems next week that have potential at snow Monday night and Wednesday night. Too early for specifics.
It warms up next week and to close out December but the pattern remains active. Overall 2-4ºF above normal possible from Christmas into the New years.
Confidence and Risks:
- Above average confidence we start with ice tonight so it will become slick for a few hours prior to 1/2am.
- Above average confidence we quickly rise above 32ºF across much of the area by 2/3am.
- Increasing confidence on flash freeze potential Saturday night.
- Increasing confidence in 2 clippers next week. Risk is will they produce?
- Increasing confidence pattern moderates to near or slightly above normal temps to close out Dec.
- Increasing confidence Jan goes cold and stormy.
Video today is long I apologize but its necessary. 8 min. M.