#ILwx Zones 3/4 Discussing weekend winter storm “headache”…accumulating snow and arctic cold? Christmas week storm as well? K.

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Key Points – Thursday, December 15, 2016 – next week

Synopsis: Very cold this morning, otherwise partly sunny skies with increasing clouds throughout the day. Our focus turns to our targeted system Friday into Saturday that has been made out to be a bigger deal that what it is. We have some onslaught snows across northern Zone 4 and eastern Iowa, before dry air works into this system initially before precipitation turns into a rain/freezing rain mix across central/southern IL….backside system snow likely as this system exits, we talk accumulations in the video. Bone-chilling cold works in Saturday night into Sunday…some spots across northern IL will likely not get above 0 for highs on Sunday. High pressure sets in early to mid next week before we turn our attention to Christmas week as we a winter system looks to move through the Midwest the 22nd-23rd as well as the 25th and 26th so we continue to be active throughout the next 2 weeks.

Current Wind Chill Advisories/Temps…we have wind chills in the negative teens to negative 20s across portions of Zone 4 this morning…definitely feels like we are deep into winter outside this morning, folks.

Weekend system…details on timing and precipitation type in the video…all modes of precipitation are possible in this system at times…otherwise this is really a non-event given the timing and how rain works in for most locations besides eastern Iowa and northern Illinois.

Current thoughts on accumulations…as we mentioned above, the main focus for accumulating snows will be across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois…we talk about this in the video more. The snow totals are still wobbling, so when data becomes consistent over the next 2 days we will update you with our official snow map.

Backside arctic cold enters as this system exits…check out these temperatures swings from 60s degrees Saturday morning across southern Illinois to widespread temperatures in the negatives Sunday…time to stock up on the cold medicine, chicken noodle soup and vitamin C! 

High pressure settles in early to mid next week before our next winter system moves through the Midwest. We talk about a system on the 22nd-23rd and 25th-26th in the video…confidence is still low as to the details but confidence is increasing that we will be talking about wintry precipitation…so stay tuned!

-Kirk

Confidence and Risk:

  • Average to above average confidence in the details of our weekend winter system
  • We have above average confidence for the most part this will be a non-event given the timing being overnight and because of how much warm air works in…allowing precipitation to be all rain from basically Peoria south on Saturday
  • High confidence in arctic cold settling in Saturday night into Sunday
  • Increasing confidence we are talking winter storms late next week and around Christmas

Today’s Video (6 min):