Key Points – Wednesday, November 30, 2016 – next week
Synopsis: Clearer skies and cooler conditions across the Zones today, partly to mostly cloudy skies are the forecast with temperatures in the upper 30s north and mostly in the 40s as we track south throughout IL. Rain/snow mix possible this afternoon especially across the northern half of Illinois this afternoon into tonight…temperatures will be above freezing at the surface so issues on the roadways are not expected.
Here’s a brief look at temps tonight via the GFS…where the precip will have fallen the temps will still be above freezing at the surface so hazardous travel conditions are not expected.
Mostly cloudy skies and continued seasonal to slightly below normal temperatures are expected the remainder of the week into the weekend. Our focus turns to our next system of interest Sunday…right now we feel this system has two possible outcomes: this system could completely disappear and fall apart or models could be underplaying the impact of wintry precipitation especially across our Zones. Essentially what I am saying is we still need better data, our confidence is average to below average on the impacts, precipitation type and totals. With that being said, the Canadian has been consistent on a colder air supply available with this, which would suggest more of an all snow event Sunday.
Our next system of interest is not too far behind, right now we are targeting the Tuesday to Thursday timeframe for this system to push through the Midwest. Confidence on this system is low hence the bigger timeframe, we still believe this system is a snow-maker, right now most of our models are poorly handling the track which means snowfall totals are all over the place. We go into better details about this scenario in the video.
MUCH colder air pushing in mid to late week next week as we get a cross-polar flow, allowing for arctic to push into the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
Confidence and Risk:
- Average to above average confidence in a rain/snow mix across Zone 4 today into tonight
- High confidence a calm weather persists the rest of this week into the weekend
- Average confidence in our system Sunday, but lower confidence in the precip-type and totals at this time
- Increasing confidence on our system mid-week next week as to the track and impacts
- Increasing confidence mid to late next week turns drastically colder with arctic air spilling into the central US
Today’s Video (6 min):