#INwx #OHwx Mon detailed weather forecast. Warm/rain now. Cold/snow next week? M.

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#INwx #OHwx Mon detailed weather forecast. Warm/rain now. Cold/snow next week? M.

Synopsis: Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall today. Heaviest rain will fall across central and southern IN. A cold front passes Wednesday afternoon and temperatures will fall. Mostly cloudy from Thursday-Saturday. We are watching a system coming up late weekend that right now is mostly a rain event for the Ohio valley for the most part I don’t disagree but those in northern IND I would keep an eye on it for now. Another system arrives middle of next week..this is one I would watch for seasons first widespread accumulation of snow. Details below in todays forecast. 

Radar loop as of 6:50AM. Widespread rain likely most of the day today with a break or 2 in the cards. 

codnexlab-2km-il_in-rad-ani24-201611281150-100-100-raw

Forecast radar loop next 18hrs.

hrrr-today

Total rainfall over the next 18hrs.

screen-shot-2016-11-28-at-6-49-17-am

Next system of interest comes Sunday. 

screen-shot-2016-11-28-at-6-45-44-am

System to follow that COULD be seasons first accumulating snow. Pattern is not incredibly cold but looks to deliver snow chances no doubt. Check back often. 

screen-shot-2016-11-28-at-6-45-52-am

26 of the 51 European ensemble members show 5″+ of snow in the central Ohio valley over the next 15 days. Its a signal is all and one to watch for now. I do like what I see for December when we compare it to the last 7 Decembers overall as they have been largely uneventful winter wise and warm too. 

screen-shot-2016-11-28-at-6-33-16-am

Temps from normal last 10 Decembers. 

screen-shot-2016-11-28-at-6-55-28-am

This December looks to start colder and stormy. 

start-cold

Confidence and Risks:

  • High confidence in widespread heavy rain today esp over IND lighter amounts for OH. 
  • High confidence in cloudy skies w/cooler temps to end the week. 
  • Average confidence W/Sunday system but precip risks are uncertain pending track of low/cold supply.
  • Risk for snow grows mid next week but confidence is below average in the outcome at this time.
  • Average to below average confidence in cold becoming sustained from the 13th of Dec & beyond.

Video forecast. 7 mins today. 

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