#ILwx Zones 3/4 – Warm, windy and rainy to start the weekend, eyeing late weekend/early next week cold/snowy? Details here! K.

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Key Points – Monday, November 28, 2016 – next week

Synopsis: First and foremost, thank you so much to our new subscribers for joining the BAM team, and a continued thank you to those who have been supporting us as we grow! Rainfall focused in southern IL this morning, otherwise showers and maybe a few storms likely as we move into the afternoon evening hours tonight. Wind gusts topping 30mph possible as well as these showers move through.

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Today into tomorrow: shower coverage increases as we move into the afternoon/evening hours across the Zones details, details on timing are focused in the video, but showers look to exit Illinois after midnight tonight to the east.

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Partly to mostly sunny skies in the forecast Tuesday, before mostly skies dominate the forecast for the remainder of the week across the Zones. A few peaks of sunshine not out of the question, but dense low-level clouds will be hanging around as we move into the weekend. A much cooler week after this system passes to our east tomorrow as well…Wednesday night into Thursday morning a rain/snow mix in the forecast across northern Zone 4 locations as temps will flirt near-freezing, otherwise a fairly rain-free week across Illinois after today. 

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Our next system of focus looks late weekend into early next week which looks favorable for wintry precipitation in the Ohio Valley. This is all dependent on the track of the low pressure and the cold air supply, we have average confidence right now that wintry precipitation is possible as illustrated below, but if this system tracks further west it could be all rain so it’s something we are monitoring…once confidence grows to above average we will give more specifics on this.

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26 of the 51 European ensemble members show 5″+ of snow in the central Ohio valley over the next 15 days. It’s a signal is all and one to watch for now. I do like what I see for December when we compare it to the last 7 Decembers overall as they have been largely uneventful winter-wise and warm too. 

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System to follow that “COULD” be seasons first accumulating snow. Pattern is not incredibly cold but looks to deliver snow chances no doubt. Check back often as we update with the latest details and confidence. 

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Temps from normal last 10 Decembers. 

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Things take a turn for the cool to colder over the next 15 days…we start above normal as we have been but the pattern turns stormy and cold as we dig deeper into December.

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Confidence and Risk:

  • High confidence today remains wet and windy across the Zones before pushing east after midnight
  • Above average confidence in mostly cloudy skies after Tuesday and cooler for the remainder of the week
  • Average confidence with our system late weekend/early next bringing wintry weather to our Zones…all depends on the cold air supply and the track of the low pressure
  • Average to below average on the timing of the pattern turning from cool to cold into December, but our pattern is no question showing big signals of cold and stormy

Today’s Video (6 min):