#ILwx Zones 3/4 – Showers continue today, stormy into early next week? Details here! K.

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Key Points – Wednesday, November 23, 2016 – long term

Synopsis: Showers will continue to push through our Zones today into tonight before moving off east completely into Zones 1/2 late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Mostly cloudy skies and early morning drizzle are possible Thanksgiving more, before giving way to mostly cloudy skies and highs in the 40s/lower 50s. Fog is possible across eastern/southeastern Illinois Black Friday morning, as well as there’s possible rain/snow mix moving through northern Zone 4 during the morning hours before pushing east…interesting weather hanging around to end the week! High pressure works in this week bringing mild temps and plentiful sunshine before our next system moves into the Midwest Monday through Wednesday next week, which has the potential to bring some heavier rains and gusty winds along with it as well. All details in the video!

Here’s a look at the latest showers across the Midwest:

codnexlab-2km-il_in-rad-ani24-201611231240-100-100-raw

Today/Thanksgiving:

Showers continue to push SW to NE across our Zones today, details in the video on timing and amounts. Some patchy drizzle possible in the morning hours of Thanksgiving otherwise mostly cloudy skies expected for your Thanksgiving forecast.

nam4kprecip112316

Rainfall totals from this event:

qpf_acc-bwx_mw

Friday:

Mixed precipitation possible across northern Zone 4 locations as temps dip down near freezing…if you’re headed out for early morning shopping on Black Friday be cautious as some roads may be slick.

refcmp_ptype-bwx_mw

High pressure sets in this weekend before our next system moves through late Sunday into early next week. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall possible with this system as well.

850mb winds indicate that things could get a little gusty…strong storms possible? Details in the video.

850mbwindsgif

GFS says heavy rain possible across central/southern IL Tuesday into Wednesday next week.

gfssystemgif

Brief look at the long-range into December…the CFSv2 starting to pick up on a colder, wet trend…good for an active Ohio Valley storm track!

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Confidence and Risk:

  • High confidence on a wet and dreary day today as showers continue to push through the Zones
  • Average to above average confidence patchy drizzle hangs around the Zones Thanksgiving morning with mostly cloudy skies likely
  • Average confidence northern Zone 4 sees some mixed precipitation Black Friday morning before pushing east late morning
  • Average to below average confidence in the timing and intensity of our system early next week, but gusty winds and heavy rainfall looking increasingly possible

Today’s video (6 min):

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