#INwx #OHwx #TurkeyDay #BlackFriday fcst. Rain Wed/Thur. Wintry threat next week? M.
Synopsis: Pattern really has started to show its true colors folks as evening data suggesting we have over 4″ of water to work with next 2.5 weeks. There is no doubt about it that the next 7 days are rain threats but its late next week I urge you to keep an eye on at-least sometime ~1st of DEC right now. Rain Wednesday is at 100%. There still is a sneaky piece of 500MB energy Friday evening we have got to watch IMO..its something that COULD offer up slick surfaces in Northern IN/OH more details on that in the video forecast. Thursday is looking cloudy and perhaps residual drizzle around even so check the video for that also.
Rain moves in Wednesday ~1am or so from west to east.
Total rainfall from this system as of right now..wouldn’t be shocked if models trend with more in runs today. Looks like area wide 0.50″-1″.
Looks like some residual drizzle and low clouds hang around Thursday. Keep that in mind when out and about. When the red and green lines are on top of each other it means the atmosphere is fully saturated.
I still want to watch Fridays system closely esp for northern IL/IN/OH. Its nothing major but a few slick spots wouldn’t shock me. Just keep checking back on the forecast updates this week.
All 3 big global models and their ensemble means suggest ~Dec 1st is the system to watch for snow in the Ohio valley. More on this in the premium long range update today.
Confidence and Risks:
- High confidence on rain timing and amounts Wednesday/Thursday.
- Below average confidence on the outcome of Fridays upper level disturbance.
- Average confidence in more rain Sunday night into Monday.
- Increasing confidence in a wintry threat late next week.
- Increasing confidence on a very active pattern from Thanksgiving to New years. Snow possible pending cold as always.
Video forecast. 7 mins today.