#ILwx Zones 3/4 – Wet and cool next few days, drizzle hanging around #Thanksgiving? Wintry threat next week? Details here! K.

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Key Points – Tuesday, November 22, 2016 – next week

Synopsis: Good Tuesday morning and thanks for checking out the latest Zones 3/4 update! A continued active pattern over the next 2 weeks with multiple systems that we need to watch for precipitation (frozen?). Showers moving into the area over the course of the day, will be a “raw” fall next few days as temperatures hang around in the 40s with overcast skies. Our system we’ve been mentioning has slowed down a bit, which means residual clouds and some drizzle hanging around Thanksgiving day. Our next system moves in Friday morning, impacting Zone 4 areas as of right now with a mix of rain and snow at this time…these will push east into the late morning/early afternoon hours giving way to high pressure this weekend. Targeting another system late weekend into early next week that could bring some moderate to heavy rains across the Midwest with some frozen precipitation possible on the backside of this system as well…more details in the video.

Here’s the latest look at showers moving east across the Plains into the Midwest this morning at a modest pace.

codnexlab-2km-il-rad-ani24-201611221155-100-100-raw

Today/Wednesday: Showers increase from the west to east especially into the afternoon and evening hours…expecting showers now to cross the Illinois/Iowa border between 12-3pm today and become more widespread across both Zones by tonight between 6-9pm. Eastern portions of our Zones should expect moderate to heavy rains from 3-9am Wednesday morning, with the cold front and the bulk off the rainfall pushing east into Indiana/Ohio. 

12kmnamloop

Rainfall totals with this event…expecting 0.5-0.75″ on average with isolated higher amounts possible.

qpf_acc-bwx_mw

Thanksgiving Day: Expecting mostly cloudy skies and drizzle to hang around Thanksgiving day…here’s a skew-t graphic that illustrates what we are referencing as drizzle…when the column of temperature and dew point are saturated together from the mid levels to the surface that’s where we start to pick up on some residual drizzle/fog hanging around.

screen-shot-2016-11-22-at-7-20-51-am

Highs on Thanksgiving day will be in the 40s to low 50s across Illinois.

sfctmax_006h-bwx_mw

As mentioned in the synopsis, we have a growing concern for some mixed precipitation across Zone 4 Friday morning as illustrated in our graphic below…temperatures will be near freezing with energy moving into the area…which results in some mixing issued…with that being said, temperatures rebound into the 40s for highs, but some slick roads Friday morning are not out of the question. This brief system pushes east late morning/early afternoon with high pressure setting into the weekend.

screen-shot-2016-11-22-at-7-00-45-am

**All 3 big global models and their ensemble means suggest ~Dec 1st is the system to watch for snow in the Ohio valley. More on this in the premium long range update today. 

screen-shot-2016-11-22-at-7-10-25-am

Confidence and Risk:

  • High confidence on rainfall timing and conditions over the next few days
  • Average to above average confidence on drizzle hanging around Illinois Thanksgiving day with highs in the 40s with mostly cloudy skies
  • Average confidence on mixed precipitation across Zone 4 Friday morning
  • Increasing confidence in another rainfall event Sunday into Monday
  • Increasing confidence that we have “wintry” potential in the forecast once again next week

Today’s Video (6 min):

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