11-21-16 Winter Threat Assessment Blog – Targeting Several “Wintry” Systems
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Synopsis: Our forecast models are now starting to hint at a cooler pattern over the next 2 weeks to move in from the west to east, and at the same time push the above normal warmth further north. This is a favorable sign because it means there’s a more likely chance of a colder air supply for these storms to tap into and to turn “wintry”…producing frozen precipitation. Let’s reiterate this IS NOT Arctic air, this is seasonal air that can become conducive for snow. The question continues to be where will the greatest risk of snowfall set up going forward, which we will touch on below.
Next Targeted System (November 27-29th): there’s no doubt there’s a system there, the question arrises how cold is our “cold supply” with this system in our upper levels of the atmosphere? Below are the last 6 runs of the GFS and 4 runs of the Euro to gain a better understanding of where we are “trending” with this system. The Euro has been more consistent on the timing of the 27th going into the 28th, while the GFS is still struggling to hold onto to this system as there’s another one its heals.
Last 6 GFS Runs (500mb):
Last 4 Euro Runs (500mb):
Last 6 GFS Runs (850mb temps):
Last 4 Euro Runs (850mb temps):
Target for “wintry” precipitation:
Teleconnections: Below is a look at the forecasted teleconnections over the next 2 weeks…we start to see a quick flux from a -PNA to a +PNA, a continued -NAO and a flip from a +EPO to a -EPO. This pattern is favorable for a deep trough to dig in and introduce favorable stormy continues. This also leads me right into our next storm system we are targeting, Nov 30-Dec 2.
Next System to track (November 30-December 2): The GFS and Euro differ on the timing of this system, but one thing looks like is increasing confidence of this being a potential big-hitter system with a good cold air supply. Here’s what this morning’s GFS has vs Euro below. In the next couple of blog updates we need to fine-tune the timing of this system to get better confidence, but confidence is at least average with the cold supply we are seeing now with this system to be able to produce frozen precipitation across portions of the Plains eastward.
GFS solution (Nov30-Dec 1 system) 500mb heights…a nice, deep trough looks to dig into the Plains, eastward:
GFS solution (Nov30-Dec 1 system) 850mb temps…plenty of cold air supply that’s below freezing with this system:
Euro solution (Nov30-Dec 1 system) 500mb heights…this suggests a nice, deep trough digs into the Midwest, east as well
Euro solution (Nov30-Dec 1 system) 850mb temps…plenty of cold air supply that’s below freezing with this system:
Organic Forecast methods (BSR) see this system as well, and if we apply our theory that storms are 400 miles northwest of this track we get our system that we are targeting here.
Concluding thoughts: Based on what we’ve covered above, we can safely say the next 2-3 weeks are very active with systems that have the potential to be “wintry” in nature. The details need fine-tuned, but the available cold supply is starting to become more evident as our above normal warmth begins to phase out.
Confidence and Risk:
- Average confidence that we start to trend cooler over the next 2-3 weeks (But NOT Arctic) which increases our cold supply for these systems to be able to produce wintry precip.
- Below average confidence in our system late weekend to early next week as to the track, intensity and precipitation-type…but there is some confidence it’s a Midwest system.
- Below average confidence in our system Nov30-Dec 2 right now, but we are starting to increase confidence as these dates correlate well with our SOI drop+Bering Sea Rule we’ve been mentioning, which suggests a big system tracks through the central US.
Interested in getting the details any of these systems within 7 days, including timing, intensity, precipitation-type etc? Send us an email to “Info@BAMwx.com” expressing your interest and we will get you taken care of!
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