#ILwx Zones 3/4 – Record warmth today, windy and rainy Fri…first snowflakes of the season Sat AM? Details on Thanksgiving wx also. K.

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Key Points – Thursday, November 17, 2016 – long-range

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Synopsis: Very unseasonably warm today out ahead of our powerful system today…widespread 70s expected with a mix of clouds and sunshine….with that being said, clouds are expected to increase as we head into tonight. Winds will increase from the west to east as well out of the south, with sustained winds from 10-15 mph and wind gusts up to 25-30mph. Winds increase tomorrow to 15-20mph sustained moving from the SW to W to NW as the day progresses on, gusting to 40mph+. We are expecting rain most of the day on Friday before exiting the area Friday evening to the east…some rain/snow flurries are possible across Zone 4 come Saturday morning as well…accumulations are not expected. MUCH colder weather is in store for this weekend, wind chills likely in the teens Saturday/Sunday mornings especially across Zone 4…wind chills in the 20s expected also across central to southern IL locations. We are targeting our next system around Thanksgiving next week, there is still a big spread on the track of this system…the Canadian is further south which suggests more of a rain/snow mix, meanwhile the GFS and Euro are further north and have an all rain event…these details will need to be fine-tuned going forward in the coming updates. We touch briefly on the temps for Thanksgiving and Black Friday, as well as long-range so make sure to check it out!

Today: Multiple locations could see record highs today with a mix of sunshine and clouds.

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15-20mph Sustained winds increase Thursday into Friday, gusting Friday near 40mph across Illinois. We are expecting showers along a cold front to move through the Zones on Friday as well…details in the video but here’s a good loop to show the progression of these showers.

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Big time temperature changes this weekend…a 25-30º difference in temps expected as we head into the weekend

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Still monitoring a Thanksgiving system to move through, there are differences in the track and precip-type so confidence right now is below average…but this needs watched very intently throughout the next few days.

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A continued SOI crash this morning…watch early December for a system to move through…East Asia is beginning to support this idea as well…more on this in the Winter Threat Assessment blog tomorrow!

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Confidence and Risk:

  • High confidence near-record warmth is in the forecast today…a mix of clouds and sun expected as well
  • High confidence it will be very windy over the next few days across our Zones
  • Above average confidence on the timing of our showers Friday, as well as our rainfall totals with this event
  • High confidence it will feel like winter this weekend, with wind chills in the upper teens and in the 20s
  • Below average confidence in our Thanksgiving system next week…the track of this system is still wobbling

Today’s Video (7 min):