#ILwx Zones 3/4 – Near-record warmth, VERY gusty winds into the weekend, winter-like cold settles in…still targeting Thanksgiving system. K.

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Key Points – Wednesday, November 16, 2016 – next week

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Synopsis: Some patchy fog this morning, especially across Zone 4 that will hang around for the next couple of hours before burning off to another nice, mild day. Tomorrow will no question be the warmest day of the week with widespread temps in the 70s across our Zones; a few high temp records could be broken as well, I’m watching the Springfield area right now to potentially break the record high. Winds increase from the west to east Thursday into Friday…by the time Friday rolls around, winds will be sustained at 15-20mph out of the south turning to the west, gusting at 40-45mph. Our line of showers has sped up a tad, now looking to enter western IL by Friday morning into early afternoon moving east…a few rumbles of thunder are not out of the question with this line of showers. BIG time colder weather will usher in as this system pushes east…lows will be in the lower 20s Sunday and Monday mornings…definitely will have a “winter-like” feel out this weekend and early next week. Still targeting a Thanksgiving week system, confidence is still low in regards to precip-type, timing, intensity and location…so stay tuned in the coming updates for more details!

Wed/Thu: Some morning fog hanging around Zone 4 this morning, otherwise mostly sunny skies today. Temps continue to warm over the next 2 days…expecting widespread 70s across Illinois on Thursday!

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Forecasting some patchy fog near the IL/IN border Thursday morning as well…winds will be too gusty for central and western Illinois locations to see much fog

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Winds increase Thursday into Friday this week…we are still targeting sustained winds 15-20 mph out of the south turning west, gusting near 40mph+ come Friday.

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Showers move through Illinois on Friday morning/afternoon and push east into the afternoon evening hours. These showers do have the potential of pulling down some strong wind gusts especially near the IL/IN border Friday evening, a strong storm or two is not out of the question at this time.

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Higher rainfall totals are expected across southern and eastern IL, ~0.50″ in these areas, for folks more west and north expect lesser amounts of around 0.1-0.25″.

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As we mentioned in the synopsis, lows in the 30s Saturday morning and in the 20s by Sun/Mon mornings…very chilly!

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We continue to monitor our Thanksgiving  system moving through the Midwest next week…right now it’s looking like an all-rain event, but some snow showers are not out of the question on the backside of this system…confidence is low right now on this, we need more data to give a more accurate forecast…just keep it on your radar going forward.

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Also really quickly, we’ve had a major drop in the SOI over the past 2 days, so if we had 20 days to these dates we would be looking for another system in the first week of December…stay tuned for more details on this as we progress!

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Confidence and Risk:

  • Above average confidence the fog will burn off to another pleasant day with mild temps
  • Average confidence patchy fog across eastern IL locations tomorrow morning
  • Above average to high confidence in widespread 70s in the forecast Thursday…very unseasonably warm
  • Above average confidence wind gusts pick up near 40mph Friday into Saturday across the Zones
  • Average to above average confidence in the. timing of our showers and maybe some thunder on Friday
  • Below average to low confidence of a strong storm…but there is some small potential there near the IL/IN border Friday night
  • High confidence we dip into the 20s for lows this weekend especially Sunday into Monday mornings…a winter-like feel with a hard freeze
  • Low confidence in our Thanksgiving system next week…we need a lot more better data to determine the track, precip-type and timing

Today’s Video (6 min):