11/16/16 Winter Threat Assessment Blog – Update on Thanksgiving System
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Synopsis: I wanted to very briefly touch on the evolution of this late week/weekend system moving through the Plains east through the Midwest, as well as dig into the latest data regarding our Thanksgiving system. For specific details on precipitation type, snowfall totals, temperatures and timing of these systems please send an email to “Info@BAMwx.com” and we will get you signed up with a subscription today! Once again, here was our winter storm outlook for this system last week vs forecast snowfall totals in the northern Plains…7+ days out it’s hard to do much better, honestly.
BAM November 19th-21st winter storm target area
Latest NAM total snowfall accumulation
Here’s a simulated loop of this system as it impacts the northern Plains as well as the Midwest…looks like our season’s first snow flurries will be possible across portions of Illinois, Indiana, southern Michigan and Ohio!
Next Targeted System (Nov 23-25th): We have moved up our dates as to when we are eyeing this system to impact the Midwest. I wanted to make it very clear that right now both the GFS and Euro have this system too warm for “wintry” precipitation…for the most part. What I am concerned with is as this system passes to the east, will the backside of the low be cold enough to produce some wintry precipitation and potential lake effect precipitation. Confidence is low right now as to frozen precipitation, but it is worth noting the possibility if we bring colder air in on the backside of this system. Here’s what both the GFS and Euro have right now with this system. There still is variability on the track of this so stay tuned in the coming updates.
Our target area with this storm…again, low confidence with this but here ya go:
If you subscribe to our services already or follow us on Twitter, you’ll remember how we’ve mentioned for over a month now to look for ~25th of November for a powerful system to move through via the BSR. Below is the reference to the 25th on the BSR and you can note how powerful of system this was moving through the Bering Sea as a 964mb low.
SOI: I did want to note before ending today’s blog that we’ve had a big-time drop in the SOI over the past two days, the general idea is to add ~20 days to this to watch for another system to move through…so if we start seeing things late November into early December heat up, I would associate it to this drop in the SOI.
Confidence and Risk:
- We have average to above average confidence in the system ending this week into this weekend will bring a big snow-maker for portions of northern Plains…it may even bring the first snowflakes of the season to portions of the Ohio Valley late this weekend
- We have below average confidence in our system next week bringing “wintry” weather potential to the Midwest
- We have low confidence in a system end of November beginning of December, but with a big drop like this in the SOI, we need to keep our eyes peeled
Interested in getting the details on this system as we progress into next week, including timing, intensity, precipitation-type etc? Send us an email to “Info@BAMwx.com” expressing your interest and we will get you taken care of!
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