#ILwx Zones 3/4 – Scattered showers Tuesday, targeting a hard frost this coming weekend, as well as a BIG time system come mid-next week. K.

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Key Points – Monday, November 7, 2016 – long range

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Today: Mostly clear skies to start off today with temperatures in the lower 40s to upper 30s across Zone 4, meanwhile most Zone 3 folks are in the low to mid 40s this morning. Skies will be mostly to partly sunny today, with clouds increasing from the west to east as we move into the afternoon hours. Here’s a cloud cover loop showing this progression:

10z-20161107_hrrrmw_prec_cloud

Tuesday: Scattered showers in the forecast early Tuesday morning heading from the NW to the SE along a cold front, starting across Zone 4 locations. Scattered showers possible in Zone 3 Tuesday evening before exiting the state just after midnight.

nam4-11716

Rainfall totals from showers 0.1-0.2″ likely across both Zones:

qpf_acc-bwx_mw

Wednesday through late week: High pressure sets in with seasonal temperatures expected (50s and 60s)…plentiful sunshine and dry conditions:

gfs-ens_mslpamean_us_3

Weekend: Potential hard frost in the cards Saturday and Sunday morning with lows in the lower 30s to even upper 20s in Zone 4 areas.

Saturday morning low:

ndfd_t2min_illinois_6

Sunday morning lows:

ndfd_t2min_illinois_7

Long-range: We are targeting our next big system between the 15th-17th mid-next week, which are dates that should sound familiar to you if you’ve been checking out our long-range outlooks on the site! This could bring both severe weather and wintry weather to portions of the Plains and eastward, so we need to keep an eye on this date range for inclement weather.

500h_anom-conus

Confidence and Risk:

  • Above average confidence clouds increase from the west to the east today ahead of our cold front…otherwise it’ll be a nice day across both Zones
  • Above average confidence in the timing, coverage and intensity of our rain showers Tuesday
  • Above average to high confidence high pressure sets in Wednesday through the weekend, bringing quiet weather
  • Average to above average confidence of a hard frost potential Saturday and Sunday mornings this weekend as temps will dip down into the lower 30s and even upper 20s across Zone 4 locations
  • Average to below average confidence in the timing, location and threats of our big system mid-next week…details need fine-tuned

 

Today’s Video (5 min):

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