#ILwx Zones 3/4 – Patchy fog this morning, windy times this evening into Saturday morning. New Weeklies suggest pattern change mid-Nov! Kirk.

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Key Points – Friday, October 28, 2016 – late next week

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Good Friday morning and thanks for checking out the latest Zones 3/4 update! We have a little bit patchy fog around areas near St. Louis as well the IN/IL border.

(Morning Fog)

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High pressure is in the forecast today into Saturday…winds will pick up out of the south to southwest tonight, just in time for the Cubs game! Wind gusts could be upwards of 40+mph into Saturday morning.

(Gusty into Saturday)

hrrrmw_sfc_gust_017

A cold front continues to push towards Zones 3/4 Saturday into Sunday, bringing shower chances along with it. Timing right now looks to be around midnight Saturday night into Sunday for showers, impacting specifically northern Zone 4 areas; Zone 3 will stay dry with this cold front passage. Rainfall totals likely between 0.10-0.30″ right now. The direction of these showers will be moving from the NW to the SE. 

(Cold front into Sunday)

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(Impacted areas and timing)

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High pressure sets in Sunday afternoon through mid-next week…partly to mostly sunny skies expected across both Zones 3/4. As a storm system passes to our north Monday into Tuesday, we could see some gusty winds up to 30mph according to the GFS this morning. 

(Gusty winds Monday night into Tuesday)

gfs_mslp_uv10g_ky_17

We are still keeping all eyes on our storm system Wednesday into Thursday next week; confidence right now is still average as to the timing, location and intensity of this system as it moves through Zones 3/4. Our analysis shows Zone 4 areas being impacted first Wednesday evening to near midnight, tracking southeast into Zone 3 by Thursday afternoon into the evening. The front should pass the area it looks right now by Thursday evening into our neighbors to the south and east. There could be a little lightning and thunder associated with these, as we do have ample amounts of energy in the atmosphere to suggest some storms.

(Front approaches Zone 4 Wed PM-Thurs AM)

ecmwf_slp_precip_ky_26

(Front approaches Zone 3 Thurs PM)

ecmwf_slp_precip_ky_28

(Storms possible as well)

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High pressure sets in as the storms system moves out of our forecast area Friday into next weekend…bringing pleasant, dry conditions. Rainfall totals over the next week will likely stay below 1.0″ even with the frontal passage mid-to-late week…high pressure wins out.

(7-day rainfall totals)

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Temperatures over the next 5-7 days will be well above normal.

(Above normal temps in the short to medium range)

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The new European weeklies came out last night, they bring good tidings for the pattern change we’ve been mentioning come mid-November! Here’s weeks 3/4, which are mid to late November. The biggest take away is that it has that dreaded ridge that’s been keeping us warm for so long, pushing to the west! The response is more troughing east, or in simpler terms, more opportunities for stormy/cooler weather patterns! Keep this timeframe in the back of your mind as we continue forward into November next week! It’s weird to say next week is already November…time sure flies.

(Euro Weekly – Week 3)

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(Euro Weekly – Week 4)

500za_week4_bg_us

Thanks for checking out the latest Zones 3/4 update, windy times tonight into tomorrow morning, shower potential across Zones 4 Saturday PM into Sunday AM, with high pressure setting in late weekend into early next week. Still eyeing a system to move through Wed-Thurs next week bringing rains moderate rains to both Zones. Have a fantastic weekend!

-Kirk

Today’s Video (6 min):

Confidence and Risk:

  • High confidence high pressure controls our weather today into tomorrow, bringing some sunshine and dry weather.
  • Above average confidence windy times are ahead tonight into tomorrow
  • Above average confidence in showers across northern Zone 4 Saturday evening into Sunday morning
  • High confidence high pressure sets in late weekend into early next week…dry conditions persist
  • Average confidence in our storm system moving through Zones 3/4 next Wednesday PM into Thursday