#ILwx Zones 3/4 – BIG heat returns tomorrow, weekend rain potential across the Zones. High pressure into next week, followed by heavy rains? Details here! Kirk.

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Key Points – Thursday, October 27, 2016 – late next week


Hey there and good Thursday morning, thanks for checking out the latest Zones 3/4 forecast! Most recent look at radar shows showers continue to pushing off to the east with the cold front passage.

(Latest radar loop)


(Cold front passing to the east)


Skies will be mostly cloudy today as the affects of the low pressure are still being felt…with that being said, as it continues to advance east into the evening, skies will begin to clear before sunset across both Zones 3/4. 

(HRRR cloud cover loop)


High pressure sets in today into tomorrow, keeping things dry with mostly sunny skies. Highs today will be slightly below normal with the upper 40s in northern Zone 4, mid to upper 50s across central IL, and in the upper 50s to potential lower 60s across southern Zone 3 with a North to Northwest wind.

(Today’s highs)


Tomorrow the above normal heat spikes once again as a ridge sets up through potentially the end of next week. And I’m sure as you’ve been following along you know the result of a consistent ridge near our Zones means sustained above normal temps. Upper 60s and lower 70s will make their return tomorrow as highs.

(Friday’s temp anomalies)


We are still eyeing for a cold front to approach the area Friday night into Saturday, which will bring windy conditions especially to Zones 4…this is a result of a low-level jet ramping from the NW to the SE with winds 50knots+!

(Wind gusts Friday night into Saturday morning)


(Low-level jet ramping up)


Showers possible later Saturday evening into Sunday morning across northern Zone 4…these will be light in nature and will clear out by late morning into the afternoon…giving way to partly sunny skies.

(Potential Sunday AM showers)


High pressure sets up Sunday through mid-week keeping our weather quiet with continued above normal temperatures.

(High pressure dominates our weather, keeping conditions dry and warm)


(7-day temp average)


Our models are wobbling big time back and forth as to our mid-to-late week rainmaker. We have a strong southeast ridge in place (again), which will likely make any precipitation ride the periphery (clockwise) in the Midwest and Corn Belt. Right now we are eyeing Thursday-Friday for potential precipitation across the Zones.

(SE ridge allow precip to ride along the outside into our Zones)


More of the same Friday as the southeast ridge wants to ride precipitation into both Zones 3/4.

(More of the same Friday)


It needs noted that our confidence with this is average right now. As we’ve seen the last 2-3 months with a southeast ridge in place, rain likes to ride clockwise around the high pressure, sweeping in that Gulf moisture up into the Midwest. In this case, it all depends on where the ridge sets up as to the storm track. Rainfall totals over the next 10 days show the ridge in the southeast, which allows the rains to filter in through the Corn Belt and Midwest.

(10 day rainfall totals)


Thanks for checking out the latest Zones 3/4 update, stay tuned in the coming days as we fine-tune next week’s rain potential. Have a fantastic day!


Today’s Video (5 min):

Confidence and Risk:

  • High confidence in below average temps today as winds transition to north to northwest
  • Heat and high pressure returns Friday…keeping things mostly sunny and dry
  • Above average confidence in windy conditions Friday night into Saturday
  • Average confidence in rainfall Saturday night into Sunday morning across northern Zone 4
  • High confidence high pressure sets in early to mid next week
  • Average to low confidence in our storm system next week

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