#ILwx Zones 3/4 – Heavy showers possible today, potential weekend system, BIG warmth wins out to end Oct. Details here! Kirk.

Home / Uncategorized / #ILwx Zones 3/4 – Heavy showers possible today, potential weekend system, BIG warmth wins out to end Oct. Details here! Kirk.

Key Points – Wednesday, October 26, 2016 – mid next week

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Good Wednesday morning, and thanks for checking out the latest Zones 3/4 update! Lots to cover this morning so let’s dive right in! Here’s the latest regional radar around our area, as you can see we have our cold front approaching from the west and the warm from pushing off to the east that brought rains to Zone 4 yesterday. 

(Latest radar loop)

codnexlab-2km-il-rad-ani24-201610261035-100-100-raw

Gusty conditions will persist this morning across Zone 4 out ahead of our cold front, as our our low-level jet stream (winds at 5,000 feet) are still ~50mph. Wind gusts up to 40mph will be possible.

(Wind gusts this morning)

hrrrmw_sfc_gust_006

Currently the bulk of the “heavier” rainfall is still in eastern Iowa, and looks to impact impact western Zone 4 by 7-8amCDT this morning.

(Morning showers across Zone 4)

refcmp_uh001h-bwx_mw

Here’s how things are shaping up by late morning around 10-11amCDT

(Late morning)

refcmp_uh001h-bwx_mw-1

You can see here by ~3pm that the showers are more of a “scattered” threat stretching from Rockford down to Champaign, Springfield and folks near St. Louis.

(Early PM showers…scattered threat)

refcmp_uh001h-bwx_mw-5

By evening, a scattered shower remains…the backside of the cold front is now moving into western IL which is where the end of our shower chances will begin. This will slowly move east.

(Evening showers)

refcmp_uh001h-bwx_mw-3

Any residual showers from the backside of the cold front will be hanging around in SE IL by very early morning Thursday, then pushing eastward throughout the morning hours of Thursday. Skies will gradual clear throughout the day as well.

(Residual showers early Thursday morning)

refcmp_uh001h-bwx_mw-4

(Cold front pushes through, skies will start clearing)

700rh-bwx_mw

Rainfall totals as this system moves through…the bulk of the heavies rains falling in Zone 4.

qpf_acc-bwx_mw-1

High pressure builds Friday and Saturday, keeping conditions dry. Yesterday we had mentioned that our weekend shower chances were looking weak, as of this morning they have increased slightly…worth noting in our forecast for now. These will be pushing west to east likely across Zone 4 Saturday PM into early Sunday morning, with minimal to no impacts on Zone 3. 

(Late Saturday to Sunday potential showers)

ecmwf_slp_precip_ky_19

High pressure sets up in early to mid next week, keeping conditions dry with pleasant conditions.

(High pressure dominates weather Sun-Thurs)

ecmwf_slp_precip_ky_23

Our next system of interest looks to move through the area next Thurs-Fri. Timing, intensity and location are still being fine-tuned, so confidence right now is average. Just something to keep on your radar as we go forward.

(System mid next week moving through the Zones)

ecmwf_slp_precip_mw_35

Temperatures over the next 7 days will no doubt be well above normal…there will be plenty of 70s and above in the forecast through mid next week, no doubt about that. Check out the 7-day forecasts for specific details!

(Warm next 7-days)

eps_control_t2anom_by7_mw_33

Thanks for checking out day’s Zones 3/4 update, check back later today and in the coming days for more details on rain chances and warmth!

-Kirk

Today’s Video (6 min):

Confidence and Risk:

  • We have high confidence showers continue to move east this morning, especially across Zone 4.
  • We have above average confidence that the line of storms turns more into a scattered threat late morning into evening hours
  • We have high confidence our highest rainfall totals will be across northern/western Zone 4 over the next 36 hours (0.5-1.0″ expected…localized higher amounts possible in heavier bands)
  • We have above average confidence high pressure sets in the remainder of Thurs-Sat
  • A system looks to potentially move through Saturday PM into Sunday AM..confidence is average with this system right now.
  • We have above average confidence more high pressure sets in Sunday-Thursday next week
  • We have high confidence we see well above normal temps in the next 7 days
  • We have average confidence in another system moving through Thurs-Fri next week impacting the Zones

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