#ILwx Zones 3/4 – Heavy rains again today, MUCH cooler tomorrow…beautiful weekend ahead, stormy weather looms early/mid next week! Kirk.

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Key Points – Thursday, October 20, 2016 – mid-next week

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Good Thursday morning, and thanks for checking out the latest Zones 3/4 forecast update! First things first, let’s take a look at the regional radar which indicates the heavy rain axis setting up along a stationary front stretched across southern IL/IN/OH this morning.

(Regional radar update)

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Behind this cold front, especially across northern Zone 4 we have temps nearing the upper 40s again! These cooler temps will spread south as the stationary front moves east today. 

(Current temps)

2mt102016

Here’s how things look to be shaping up by 7amCDT across the Zones. The heaviest rain will be oriented SW to NE stretching from St. Louis to Springfield to Champaign.

(Simulated radar by 7amCDT)

refcmp_uh001h-bwx_mw

By 10amCDT, there may be a possible “lull” in activity, but persistent showers especially across Zone 3 are still likely.

(10amCDT simulated radar)

refcmp_uh001h-bwx_mw-1

Moderate to high rainfall still likely around the same areas across southern Zone 4 through most of Zone 3 by 5pmCDT.

(5pmCDT simulated radar)

refcmp_uh001h-bwx_mw-2

By 8pmCDT, we can really start seeing our front pushing off to the east, where our heaviest rain is setting up near Terre Haute stretching SW down through Mount Vernon, Marion and folks near Vincennes, IN.

(Simulated radar by 8pmCDT)

refcmp_uh001h-bwx_mw-3

Nearing midnight, showers and any remaining storms look to set-up near Olney and Vincennes, IN pushing east and exiting our Zones.

(Simulated radar later tonight)

refcmp-bwx_mw

The front should totally pass our Zones by early Friday morning, leaving skies mostly clear with a few clouds possible.

(Cold front passes by early Friday morning)

700rh-bwx_mw

Continued cooler temps expected Friday, with highs spanning from the low to mid 50s across northern Zone 4, to the mid to upper 50s across central IL and in the upper 50s to maybe near 60 across southern Zone 3. Friday’s highs will be 5-10°F below normal.

(Friday high temps)

ndfd_t2max_ky_2

(Friday temp anomalies)

ndfd_t2max_anom_ky_2

Total precipitation over the next 24 hours will bring another 1-2″ over areas outlined above across southern Zone 4 to Zone 3…localized higher amounts are possible as well. 

(RPM rainfall totals through Friday AM)

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High pressure dominates our forecast from Friday through early next week…temps rebound during this period to above average once again. This translates to highs in the 60s across northern Zone 4, to the upper 60s to lower 70s across central IL, to the low to mid 70s across portions of Zone 3. Plentiful sunshine and dry conditions expected.

(Temps rebound this weekend to early next week to above normal)

gfs-ens_t2mamean_us_6

We are still eyeing a system to move through Tues-Wed next week…average confidence exists right now as to the timing, location and intensity…so some fine-tuning needs to be done as we get closer to the forecast period.

(Next week system Tue-Wed)

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Thanks for checking out today’s Zones 3/4 update…heavy rains will slowly move off to the east this evening, giving way to nicer conditions through early next week! Have a terrific Thursday!

-Kirk

Today’s Video (6 min):

Confidence and Risk:

  • We have high confidence the heaviest rain axis sets up across southern Zone 4 to Zone 3 today 
  • We have high confidence an additional 1-2″ with localized higher amounts are possible through tomorrow morning, especially across Zone 3
  • We have high confidence Friday’s temps are 5-10°F below normal
  • We have high confidence we see high pressure settle in Friday to early next week…bringing plentiful sunshine and dry weather
  • We have above average confidence that temps will rebound to above normal (5-10°F) through early next week as well

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