#ILwx Zones 3/4 – Showers possible this morning, VERY windy into Tuesday, heavy showers possible Wed-Thurs. Kirk.

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Key Points – Monday, October 17, 2016 – weekend

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Good Monday morning and thanks for checking out the Zones 3/4 forecast update! No question about, things are already starting out mild this morning…setting the tone for a well above normal next few days. Widespread 60s/70s already present across all of IL as seen below:

(Current temps)

2mt101716

Today and tomorrow stay dry, warm with some sunshine…with that being said, when we have temperatures exceeding 80 degrees in October there’s a reason why; that reason is we have very strong warm-air advection pumping into the air…simply put, it’s going to be windy! Wind gusts could exceed 40mph tonight into Tuesday, we would not be surprised if wind advisories are issued today for portions of both Zones for this threat.

(Wind gusts into Tuesday)

hires_gust_ky_22

According to our latest forecast models, we could have some scattered showers with some potential thunder later on this morning…confidence on this right now is about average as there is some lift in the area that could produce some showers. All the data suggests this should dissipate by early afternoon leading to a sunny, nice and windy rest of the evening.

(Possible showers with some thunder this morning)

hrrrmw_prec_radar_004

Wednesday into Thursday we will have a cold front hanging around the area, which will provide some moderate to heavier rains at times. Initially the showers look to start off in Zone 3 early Wednesday morning, and as the day progresses the cold front looks to hang around if not lift further north, pushing those showers into Zone 4 as well. As we progress more into Thursday, the cold front will start pushing more south across Zone 3 and then gradually move off east Thursday evening into Friday. 

(Cold front set-up Wednesday)

ecmwfued-midwest-60-c-mslpthkpcp6_white

(Cold front hangs around through Thursday)

ecmwf_slp_precip_ky_13

As the cold front pushes east into Friday, cooler than normal temps will settle in briefly…highs will likely be in the 50s to maybe in the lower 60s across southern portions of Zone 3.

(Friday temps)

ndfd_t2max_anom_mw_5

A warm front looks to lift across Illinois come Saturday morning, bringing potential shower chances across Zone 4. Confidence on this right now is about average, as the GFS right now does not have any rain chances. We will continue to fine-tune this forecast in the coming days!

(Saturday morning shower chances)

ecmwfued-midwest-132-c-mslpthkpcp6_white

High pressure looks to settle in the backside of this coming weekend…near-normal temps with some sunshine expected at this time across the Zones. 7-day rainfall totals look to be focused right now across Zone 3/southern Zone 4 where the cold front will set-up this week…with that being said, portions of NE Zone 4 look to be getting on some additional rainfall according to the Euro having the warm front move Saturday, so keep that in mind as well. Our thinking is 1-2″ across these outlined areas will not be out of the question…localized higher amounts are possible as well in the heavier showers/storms/

(7-day rainfall totals)

7dayrainfall101716

Thanks for checking out the latest Zones 3/4 update…stay tuned for more updates coming this afternoon and in the coming days and be sure to check out the 7-day forecasts and long-range outlooks for more details!

-Kirk

Today’s Video (6 min):

Confidence and Risk:

  • We have average to above average confidence in some showers popping up mainly across Zone 4 this morning…then dissipating into the afternoon with some sunshine
  • We have above average to high confidence that winds could exceed 40mph across the Zones today into tomorrow
  • We have above average confidence of a cold front setting up across Zone 3 come Wed-Thurs, providing moderate rains…portions of southern Zone 4 could get on these rains as well
  • We have above average confidence that below normal temps are expected on Friday
  • We have average confidence right now in a warm front setting up across Zone 4 Saturday morning
  • We have above average confidence that high pressure moves in later Saturday into the remainder of the weekend, providing pleasant weather