#ILwx Zones 3/4 – Frost advisories issued this morning! Potential weekend rains, BIG warm-up coming. Kirk.

Home / Uncategorized / #ILwx Zones 3/4 – Frost advisories issued this morning! Potential weekend rains, BIG warm-up coming. Kirk.

Key Points – Friday, October 14, 2016 – mid next week

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Good Friday morning and thanks for checking out the latest Zones 3/4 forecast! It’s definitely a chilly start out there, as our current temps reflect the mid to upper 30s across Zone 4 this morning and northern parts of Zone 3. A frost advisory has actually been issued for multiple northern Zone 4 counties until 8amCDT.

(Current temps)

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(Frost advisory map)

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There is some rain potential across southern Zone 3 today, meanwhile Zone 4 should start dry with plentiful sunshine, most of Zone 3 should stay sunny today as well.

(Simulated radar)

08z-20161014_hrrrmw_prec_radar

(Simulated cloud cover)

08z-20161014_hrrrmw_prec_cloud

Saturday and Sunday look more mild and cloudy across the Zones. Our next more widespread rain chance comes Sunday morning as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The impacts will be mainly felt across Zone 4.

(Sunday rains)

ecmwfued-midwest-60-c-mslpthkpcp6_white

High pressure looks to settle in early next week until about mid next week, keep things warm and dry. Temperatures over the next 5 days will well above normal, with multiple days early next week nearing 80 or in the 80s. 

(Above normal temps next 5 days)

gfs-ens_t2mamean_us_2

Don’t forget we make our own hand-crafted temperature anomaly and precip departure maps over at the long-range section of the website! Here’s our 7-day temp anomaly forecast…you can see, matches very well to the above normal temps.

(BAM Week 1 Temp Anomaly)

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Wind advisories definitely wouldn’t surprise us especially early next week, you can see below that the GFS model is forecast wind gusts potential up to 40 mph, so keep than in mind come Monday into Tuesday next week.

(Strong wind gusts early next week possible)

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Our next more consistent rain chance looks to impact mainly Zone 3 Wednesday into Thursday next week as a warm front lifts up across the area. Confidence with this event right now is average to low as our model solutions continue to wobble back and forth with timing, location and intensity. This will need to be fine-tuned over the weekend and into early next week to get a better idea on where the front sets up.

(Thursday next week rain potential – Zone 3 impacts)

ecmwf_slp_precip_ky_25

Rainfall totals over the next 7 days have really decreased as our model solutions continue to differ. An inch of rain is not out of the question closer to the southern parts of Zone 3, while the northern portions of Zone 4 will feel more rain chances with Sunday’s system moving through and pushing east.

(7-day rainfall totals)

7dayrainfalltotals101416

Make sure to check out the latest 7-day forecasts to get more specifics on highs/lows/rainfall totals/winds and weather! 

We will continue to monitor for changes in next week’s more widespread rain chances, but right now our confidence is too low for specifics. Have a fantastic weekend!

-Kirk

Today’s Video (6 min):

Confidence and Risk:

  • We have high confidence in plentiful sunshine and continued cooler conditions today
  • We have above average confidence for some rain showers across portions of southern Zone 3 today
  • We have above average confidence in increased cloud cover and mild conditions this weekend across the Zones
  • We have high confidence in above normal temps in the next 5-7 days
  • We have average to low confidence in mid next week’s storm chances