#ILwx Zones 3/4 – Patchy frost likely, late weekend storms possible…BIG warm-up weekend/next week. Kirk.

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Key Points – Thursday, October 13, 2016 – next week

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Good Thursday morning and thanks for checking out the latest forecast discussion! Our cold front that moved through yesterday has pushed off well to the east, ushering in much colder conditions this morning! As you can see below, we even have some upper 30s across western portions of the Zones, which will likely bring patchy frost to these areas.

(Patchy frost conditions likely across western IL)

2mt101316

Today’s forecast will be full of plentiful sunshine and dry conditions. Highs near 50 expected in northern Zone 4, mid 50s in central IL and near 60 in southern IL.

(Today’s high temps)

hrrrmw_sfc_temp_014

Patchy frost is possible once again tomorrow morning, as temps will drop down into the mid to upper 30s.

(Temps Friday morning)

wxbell_t2min_mw_49

Similar conditions are expected on Friday, we bring the next more widespread rains come Saturday evening into Sunday as a cold front sweeps through the area from the NW to the SE. Right now it looks like the main focus will be across Zone 4 and northern Zone 3 on Sunday. Confidence on this rain/storm event has lowered slightly, as the track looks to continue to wobble a bit north and south. We will provide more updates on timing and location this afternoon and into tomorrow. We will have a little energy associated with this system, so some lightning and thunder will not be out of the question in Sunday.

(Sunday rain coverage)

ecmwfued-midwest-90-c-mslpthkpcp6_white

Warmer weather is expected this weekend into next week…temperatures will likely be 10-15 degrees above normal…to put it simply, 80s next week will likely be back into the forecast.

(Warm-up coming)

gfs-ens_t2mamean_us_3

Our confidence with a big system mid-next week is still average to low…the timing has slowed down a bit from Wednesday to Thursday, but as you can see below the threat of heavy rains is still much alive.

(Heavy rains mid-next week)

ecmwfued-conus-174-c-mslpthkpcp6_white

7-day rainfall totals reveal some spots getting an inch or a slightly above.

(7-day rainfall totals)

7dayrains101316

Today’s Video (6 min):

Confidence and Risk:

  • We have high confidence today and tomorrow will see plentiful sunshine and much cooler conditions
  • We have average confidence right now in the rains ahead of a cold/warm front come Sat-Sun
  • We still have average to low confidence in the timing, location and intensity in our big system come next week
  • We have above average confidence in the next 7 days some spots in Zone 3/4 will see an inch or slightly above

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