#ILwx Zones 3/4 – Potential strong storms tonight, MUCH cooler next 2 days, warm and wet this weekend! Kirk.

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Key Points – Wednesday, October 12, 2016 – next week

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Good Wednesday morning and thanks for checking out today’s Zones 3/4 forecast update! We have some showers moving through portions of Zone 4 and northern Zone 3 moving off to the east. 

(Latest regional radar loop):

codnexlab-2km-il-rad-ani24-201610120930-100-100-raw

Portions of eastern Zone 4 and a center slice from the SW to NE of Zone 3 are included in today’s strong to severe storm threat as seen below. Current cloud cover may limit the severity of any storms later today, but it is worth mentioning that some storms tracking east tonight could have some gusty winds and small hail with them.

(Today’s strong storm risk):

il_swody1

Showers and storms look to push east to northeast across both Zones today early afternoon, moderate rains could be a factor as these storms move through as well. Any storm threat looks to exit the far southern areas by Thursday morning, ushering much cooler air behind it!

(Line of storms moving through afternoon to evening hours):

refcmp_uh001h-us_mw

Frost advisories will be probably Thursday and Friday mornings, especially across Zone 4 and northern Zone 3…as temps will likely dip down into the upper 30s if not slightly lower across northern Zone 4.

(Thursday morning temps)

wxbell_t2min_mw_49

(Friday morning temps)

wxbell_t2min_mw_73-1

Our weather Thursday and the majority of Friday will be dominated by strong high pressure, keeping things much cooler, dry and sunny. Portions of Zone 3 could see a small rain chance Friday evening into Saturday…right now confidence with this rain chance is average and needs fine-tuned.

(Friday evening Zone 3 potential rain chance):

ecmwfued-midwest-72-c-mslpthkpcp6_white

We have average confidence in another showers and storms chance moving in from the NW to the SE Saturday evening into Sunday across the Zones…these could persist and hang around until Monday so keep that in mind as we go forward.

(Storms pushing in Sat-Sun maybe Mon?)

ecmwfued-midwest-108-c-mslpthkpcp6_white

Rainfall totals through the next 7 days has a focus right now across Zone 4 with the multiple fronts moving through this week into the weekend…totals between 1-2″ are not out of the question, with totals ranging from 0.5-1.0″ more likely across Zone 3.

(7-day rains):

7dayrain101216

The cool weather doesn’t look to last though, this weekend into next week looks to heat back up, bringing temps 8-10 degrees above normal which will likely keeping the 70s and even 80s possible across Zone 3 hanging around.

(Elevated temps into next week):

gfs-ens_t2mamean_us_4

Thanks for checking out today’s Zone 3/4 forecast update, check back this afternoon and in the coming days for more details on upcoming storms, temperatures and long-range discussions!

-Kirk

Today’s Video (6 min):

Confidence and Risk:

  • We have high confidence that showers and storms will push east today into tonight ahead of a cold front
  • We have high confidence that Thurs/Fri are much cooler than normal as high pressure sets in
  • We have average confidence in our weekend rains, but need more fine-tuning on the timing, location and intensities of these
  • We have above average to high confidence in another warm-up come this weekend into next week

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