#ILwx Zone 3/4 – Strong storms Wed-Thurs? Active pattern with cold fronts in the next 10 days, potential frost as well? Kirk.

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Key Points – Tuesday, October 11, 2016 – early next week

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Good Tuesday morning and thanks for taking the time check out the latest Zones 3/4 update! First glance at radar this morning shows a cluster of storms moving west to east near the Iowa/Illinois border; this cluster could bring moderate to heavy showers as it passes east to northeast before dissipating. 

(Latest radar loop)

codnexlab-2km-il-rad-ani24-201610110910-100-100-raw

Showers and maybe a thunderstorm will continue to move east across Zone 4 this morning before dissipating. Otherwise, it should be a nice, mild day with a mix of sun and clouds across both Zones. Our next opportunity for showers and storms comes Wednesday afternoon/evening into Thursday morning with the passage of a cold front. A few of these storms have potential to bring some gusty winds and some small hail, so that’s worth a mention 24+ hours out.

(Wed-Thurs rain coverage)

nammw_prec_radar_036

(Day 2 strong storm risk)

il_swody2

Transitioning our focus over to potential frost, you can see in the images below that both Thursday and Friday mornings have the opportunity to bring frost-like temps to mainly Zone 4…but possibly northern Zone 3 has potential as well.

(Thursday morning)

wxbell_t2min_mw_73

(Friday morning)

wxbell_t2min_mw_97

Another decent shot of showers and maybe a few storms comes Sunday as another cold front moves through.

(Sunday cold front)

ecmwfued-conus-132-c-mslpthkpcp6_white

7-day rainfall totals through next Tuesday.

(7-day rainfall totals)

7dayrain101216

Thanks for checking out today’s update and video, more on potential strong storms this afternoon and into tomorrow!

-Kirk

Today’s Video (7min):

Confidence and Risk:

  • We have high confidence showers persist east before dissipating across Zone 4
  • We have high confidence a mix of sun and clouds will be possible today
  • We have high confidence in a cold front pushing east Wednesday into Thursday morning across both Zones with potential gusty winds and small hail
  • We have above average confidence in another cold front pushing through Sunday morning across the Zones bringing additional shower/storm coverage across the Zones

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