#ILwx Zones 3/4 – Multiple rain chances this week, weekend warm-up…sustained above-normal heat until mid-month? Kirk.

Home / Uncategorized / #ILwx Zones 3/4 – Multiple rain chances this week, weekend warm-up…sustained above-normal heat until mid-month? Kirk.

Key Points – Monday, October 10, 2016 – weekend

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Good morning and thanks for checking out Monday’s Zone 3/4 update! Another chilly start across Zones 4 and 3, with clear skies and temps hanging around in the 40s. Mostly sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 70s expected today across both zones…some high clouds working in later today expected.

(Current temps across the area)

2mt101016

Based on our latest data, we are looking at multiple shots of potential showers this week. Our first chance comes tonight into Tuesday morning from the SW to the NE. Both Zones have opportunities for showers during this timeframe, but Zone 4 likely has the better coverage into late morning to early afternoon I’d say around 30-40% at this time.

(Mon-Tues rain coverage)

nammw_prec_radar_033

A front starts to approach the Zones by Wednesday morning, showers and some storms expected as this advances in from west to east.

(Wed showers/storms coverage)

ecmwfued-midwest-66-c-mslpthkpcp6_white

Very cool air ushering in as this cold front exits the area Wednesday into Thursday.

(Thursday temps much cooler than normal)

ndfd_t2max_anom_ky_4

High pressure builds in by Thursday turning conditions sunny and dry.

(Thursday high pressure)

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_15

Friday brings another chance for showers, especially to Zone 3 moving west to east.

(Friday rain coverage)

ecmwfued-midwest-114-c-mslpthkpcp6_white

Weekend warmup coming in the mid-70s, which is well above average.

(Weekend warm-up)

ndfd_t2max_anom_ky_7

Bulk of the precipitation this week falls over Zone 3…1-2″ not out of the question. 

(Total rainfall accumulation through Sunday)

7dayprecip101016

Heat continues til around the 20th October before we think the pattern could shift to cooler.

(Heat continues into mid-month)

gfs-ens_t2mamean_us_7

Thanks for checking out today’s Zone 3/4 update…more this afternoon and week on rainfall coverage, totals, heat and more!

-Kirk

Today’s Video (5 min):

 

Confidence and Risk:

  • High confidence today with plentiful sunshine and above average temps across the Zones
  • Above average confidence of showers moving in tonight from the SW to NE across both zones, widespread, heavy rains not expected
  • High confidence of much cooler weather expected as the front passes mid-week
  • Average confidence in timing and location of showers, especially across Zone 3 on Friday
  • High confidence in another warm-up this weekend across the Zones