#ILwx Zones 3/4 – Skinny line of showers possible today, VERY nice weekend in store, shower chances return early next week? Kirk.

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Key Points – Friday, October 7, 2016 – early next week

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Good morning and thanks for checking out Friday’s edition of the Zones 3/4 forecast update! Taking a first glance at regional radar this morning, we can see a continued weakening trend of showers and storms as our cold front pushes east.

(Latest regional radar loop Friday morning)

codnexlab-2km-il-rad-ani24-201610071015-100-100-raw

Yesterday we believed this line “could” persist near the IA/IL border…it got close, but fizzled out a little earlier than we originally thought. With that being said, there were numerous severe reports, including tornadoes, right near the border!

(Thursday’s SPC storm reports)

spc-storm-reports-10716

You can see from our strong storm risk area yesterday, that these verified very well!

(Thursday’s strong storm risk)

strongstormrisk10516-10716

We have average confidence that a skinny line of showers is possible as our cold front pushes east through the Zones today. This will be possible this afternoon through this evening across both Zones.

(Skinny line of showers possible tonight)

refcmp_uh001h-us_mw-1

Our weather will be trending slightly cooler as we head into the weekend. Checking out the latest temperature/dew point spread across the region, you can see the relief almost instantly as the cold front passes. Areas west are already seeing temps in the 40s and dew points in the 30s and even 20s, while right now both Zones are still in the 60s with similar dew points.

(Current temps and dew points)

2mt10716-0506

2md10716-0506

Conditions will be very pleasant and temperatures will be comfortable (at least a lot more comfortable than this past week!) Saturday and Sunday across both Zones due to high pressure moving in and taking control of our weather; temperatures will be near-normal across most locations.

(High pressure brings in welcomed pleasant conditions)

ecmwf_slp_precip_ky_12

Our next chance for showers will come early next week…right now our models suggest a cold front to push through Zones 4 and 3 Tuesday into Wednesday next week. Widespread precipitation is not expected at this time, confidence right now with this front is about average as to coverage and timing. 

(Next chance for showers comes early next week from a cold front)

ecmwfued-midwest-108-c-mslpthkpcp6_white

Thanks for checking out Friday’s Zones 3/4 update, we will be bringing you additional updates this afternoon and into the weekend in regards to upcoming inclement weather.

-Kirk

Today’s Video (6 min):

Confidence and Risk:

  • We have high confidence this line of showers from our cold front will continue to weaken as it moves east across the Zones
  • We have average confidence a skinny line of showers is possible west to east across the Zones today into tonight
  • We have high confidence that this weekend will bring pleasant conditions and comfortable temperatures
  • We have average confidence on the timing and location of the cold front moving through the Zones Tues into Wed next week
  • We have above average confidence on seasonal temps for highs next week

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