#ILwx Zones 3/4 – Showers pushing through this morning, strong/heavy storms possible tonight into Friday? Beautiful weekend in store! Kirk.

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Key Points – Thursday, October 6, 2016 – early next week

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Good morning and thanks for checking out the latest Zones 3/4 forecast update! Taking a look at the latest regional radar we can see some fairly heavy showers and storms moving through Zone 4 and northern Zone 3…which we outlined were possible in yesterday’s Zones update.

(Latest regional radar loop)

codnexlab-2km-il-rad-ani24-201610060835-100-100-raw

Expected continued showers and a few storms into the morning hours across Zone 4 and northern Zone 3…some of the storms could produce some localized heavy rains and gusty winds.

(Thursday AM showers/storm area)

refcmp_uh001h-us_mw

Showers will continue to diminish into the late morning to early afternoon hours. Our main focus for any redevelopment tonight into Friday morning will be in NW Zone 4…some of these could be on the heavier, stronger side as a line of storms looks to push through Iowa east before weakening near the Iowa/Illinois border. 

(Friday morning storm chances)

refcmp_uh001h-us_mw-1

Just for reference, here is a simple map that outlines our strong to heavy storm risk area. Heavy rains, gusty winds and hail are the main risks in this area; an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out with these storms.

strongstormrisk10616-10716

Our cold front will exit the area by Friday evening into Saturday morning, ushering in much cooler, more pleasant weather into the weekend. High pressure dominates the Zones this weekend…so not much to discuss there in the weather department. 

(High pressure dominates our weather this weekend…keeping things pleasant)

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13

We are still eyeing early to mid next week for our next shower chances across the Zones as another cold front looks to push through the area. 

(Cold front brings next rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday next week)

ecmwfued-conus-150-c-mslpthkpcp6_white

Total rainfall through today and tomorrow will be focused in NW IL with 1.0-1.5″ possible with heavier storms pushing through. Most areas across Zone 3 stay dry today and tomorrow, with the only precipitation coming with the frontal passage Friday.

(Total rainfall accumulation through Friday evening)

totalrainfall10617

Stay tuned in the coming days for more updates on our weather this weekend into next week…thanks for stopping by!

-Kirk

Today’s Video:

Confidence and Risk:

  • Our confidence is high for continued shower and storm chances this morning across mainly Zone 4 and northern Zone 3
  • Our confidence is above average that this showers and storms weaken throughout the day while moving east
  • Our confidence is average to above average to potential stronger to heavier storms moving through western to NW Zone 4 tonight into Friday morning that could produce some heavy rains and gusty storms.
  • Our confidence is high that high pressure dominates our weather this weekend, keeping things pleasant
  • Our confidence is average as to the timing, location and intensity of showers early to mid next week

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