#ILwx Zones 3/4 – Clearing today, Strong storm potential tomorrow into Friday? Much cooler, nicer weekend to follow! Kirk.

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Key Points – Wednesday, October 5, 2016 – Early Next Week

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Good Wednesday morning and thanks for checking out the latest forecast update on how things are shaping up across IL going forward this week and beyond! Taking a first glance at the latest satellite/radar loop, we can see a line of storms ahead of a boundary moving from west to east; this is the same line of storms we have been mentioning that would move through the zones over the past week.

(Latest satellite/radar loop)

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Our line of storms does look to be weakening consistently moving east, as if they are hitting a “wall” almost. Here’s how things look to be shaping up around the late morning hours.

(Simulated radar late morning)

refcmp-us_mw

There won’t be much in the way of showers or storms today across both of our Zones, a mix of clouds and sun earlier on giving away to mostly sunny skies this afternoon and evening looks to be the forecast.

(Today’s cloud cover loop forecast)

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Storms, some possibly on the stronger/heavier side, look to start pushing through (as we mentioned they might, yesterday) portions of NW Zone 4 early tomorrow morning. Zone 3 looks to stay fairly clear tomorrow with any shower/storm chances.

(Storms Thursday morning)

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Storms continue in the forecast most of the day Thursday for portions of Zone 4 along the same boundary. The storm motions will be southwest to northeast, with heavy rains/gusty winds possible.

(Thursday storm chances)

refcmp_uh001h-us_mw

Our next area of interest will be Thursday evening into Friday morning. A good majority of our high-resolution forecast models are picking up a strong line of storms pushing through Iowa into western portions of Illinois that could produce heavy rains, lightning, gusty winds, and some hail; we cannot rule out an isolated tornado given how strong our low-level jet will be early Friday morning.

(Thursday evening storm threat)

nammw_prec_radar_051

Here’s our strong storm risk from late Wednesday into Friday. Our confidence with these storms being on the stronger/heavier side right now is about average…but we absolutely wanted to mention the potential risks.

(Storm Risk area Wed night into Friday AM)

strongstormrisk10516-10716

It does appear as if the storms will continue to weaken while moving east along the cold front into Friday afternoon and evening, eventually clearing out moving into the weekend. Total rainfall through Friday evening looks to focused across west-central to northwest Illinois as we have pointed out in previous forecasts. These heavier totals will be along where the line of showers and storms sets up tonight through Friday morning. Localized 1-2″ rainfall totals aren’t out of the question, especially for locations in Zone 4 underneath a stronger storm. Most of Zone 3 should stay dry through Friday, with a small chance for showers as the cold front passes.

(Rainfall totals through Friday evening)

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Higher pressure sets in this weekend, giving way to plentiful sunshine and cooler conditions.

(High pressure weekend forecast)

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Our next storm chances will come around Tuesday next week, but this will need to be fine-tuned as we get closer.

(Next shower chances early next week)

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Thanks for checking out Wednesday’s Zones 3/4 forecast update!

-Kirk

Today’s Video:

Confidence and Risk:

  • We have above average confidence that this morning’s showers break up into the afternoon and clears out to a nice Wednesday across both Zones
  • We have above average to high confidence of showers and storms moving through portions of Zone 4 Thursday into Friday morning that could be on the stronger/heavier side
  • We have high confidence that our highest rainfall totals will be focused more west to northwest near the IL/IA border due to the nature of the storm directions
  • We have high confidence high pressure persists this weekend, ushering in plentiful sunshine and comfortable conditions