#ILwx Zones 3/4 – Nice today, Scattered showers with possible cold-air funnels/small hail rest of week. Kirk.

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Key Points – Tuesday, September 27, 2016 – early next week

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Good morning and thanks for logging on to check out Tuesday’s Zones 3/4 forecast discussion! Much cooler, drier conditions to start off today…it truly feels like fall out there this morning! Currently we have 50s and upper 40s across Zone 4 and similar conditions across Zone 3…dew points are mainly in the 40s with a few touches of 30s around the Lake…another beautiful day is on tap! 

(Current temps on the left and dew point on the right)

2mt92716-0500   2md92716-0500

Our latest satellite loop shows dry air funneling into both Zones, which will make for mostly sunny skies and beautiful weather today. We are watching for our next chance for precipitation come later this evening, as our upper-level low pressure scoots south. Right now, we are expecting clouds and some showers to impact Zone 4 from north to south around the 8pm CDT time frame as shown below.

(Latest satellite loop)

codnexlab-2km-il-wv-ani24-201609270915-100-100-raw

(Simulated radar for this evening)

refcmp_uh001h-bwx_mw

Winds will ramp up once again today, with sustained winds likely between 10-20 mph out of the W to WNW across Zone 4, while Zone 3 will see winds out of the W to WSW…wind gusts of 25-30 mph are expected as well especially across northern Zone 3 and most of Zone 4. Similar wind speeds and gusts are expected the remainder of the week.

(Wind field today)

sfcwind_mslp-bwx_mw

Wednesday will start off cloudy across Zones 4 and 3 as the upper-level low pushes further south. There may be brief periods of sunshine tomorrow, but we expect there to be mostly cloudy skies Wednesday. Showers will move from north to south during the morning areas, impacting both Zones.

(Wednesday cloud cover)

nammw_700_rhum_030

And so begins our “rinse and repeat” pattern for the rest of the week…our low pressure will sit and spin over the Midwest for the remainder of the weekend, and not push east until late weekend.

(Cloud cover loop this week)

06z-20160927_nammw_700_rhum

As we mentioned yesterday, the risk for cold-air funnels (which are completely harmless!) and graupel (small hail) are possible starting Wednesday into this weekend as showers move through the area…especially late week and early weekend. Just something to note going forward.

(Area for possible cold-air funnels and small hail)

ecmwfued-conus-54-c-500vor_white

Isolated to scattered showers hang around Wednesday into the afternoon and evening hours across both Zones…these will not be washouts by any means, but brief showers and small hail can’t be ruled out. Here’s a rough area of where we think the greatest potential for showers will occur…southern Zone 3 areas will likely stay dry most of the day, but an isolated shower cannot be ruled out.

(Wednesday rain chances)

refcmp_uh001h-bwx_mw-1

Thursday we will see a mix of sun and clouds across both Zones, with possible scattered showers occurring mainly across eastern portions of Zone 4 and 3 by Thursday evening.

(Thursday rain chances)

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_12

Friday is much the same, with a mix of sun, clouds and showers…cold-air funnels (harmless) and small hail are not out of the question with some of these showers as they move through.

(Friday rain chances)

ecmwf_slp_precip_ky_17

Our main focus of rainfall totals will be focused across eastern Zones 4 and 3 this week into early weekend. Totals around 0.5-1.0″ are not out of the question, especially closer to the IL/IN border. Areas across western Zones 4 and 3 will have weaker rainfall totals…around the 0.1-0.25″ range is likely as the outer bands of precipitation will have a harder time stretching west.

(Rainfall totals through late week)

ecmwf_tprecip_ky_17

Here’s a brief look at our average temps over the next 5 days…average to slightly below average high temperatures are expected. A nice relief to what we’ve had as recently as last week!

(5-day average temperatures)

gfs-ens_t2mamean_us_1

Right now, we are looking at Sunday afternoon into the evening for this upper-level low to finally push-off to the east and provide some brief relief for a couple of days. We are keeping an eye on our next system come next Tuesday into Wednesday morning…but this will be something we will need to fine-tune moving forward.

(Possible system early next week)

ecmwfued-midwest-198-c-mslpthkpcp6_white

Today’s Video (5 min):

Confidence and Risk:

  • We have high confidence that today will be mostly sunny and beautiful across Zones 3/4
  • We have average to high confidence that scattered shower chances and intermittent sun/clouds are possible Wednesday into early weekend across the Zones
  • We have average confidence that cold-air funnels (harmless) and small hail are possible with this upper-level low the remainder of the week as well
  • We have average to high confidence that most of our “higher” rainfall totals right now are focused mainly in our eastern areas of Zones 3/4
  • We have average confidence in our next system impacting our areas come Tuesday evening into Wednesday next week…but this will need some fine-tuning

 

Thanks for stopping by today, more details this afternoon from Meteorologist Jonathon Marker on the All-Zones update!

Kirk.