#ILwx Zones 3/4 – Upper-level low brings shower chances most of the week, cold-air funnels possible? Kirk.

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Key Points – Monday, September 26, 2016 – Weekend

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Good morning and welcome to a new week! We will have some great content coming in the coming days bringing back some talk of the tropics heating back up as well as a cool down coming later today! Parts of Iowa this morning have temperatures in the 40s with dew points dropping into the 30s already this morning, so we have conditions similar to that to look forward to soon! Our cold front continues to push east across the Midwest today as seen below…relief is in sight.

(Latest conditions with fronts)

2mt92616-0500

As our latest satellite loop shows, a sharp cut-off of clouds and clear conditions is pushing east of Iowa this morning headed in our direction later this afternoon.

(Latest radar loop)

codnexlab-2km-il-wv-ani24-201609261030-100-100-raw

Right now we are expecting both Zones 4 and 3 to continue clearing out today by early afternoon and should be mostly sunny across most of Illinois by this evening.

(Clouds pushing east, dry weather replacing it)

rapmw_700_rhum_010

Today could get a little gusty as well as the front pushes east, wind gusts out of the west to northwest could get up to 20-30mph, especially across Zone 4 this evening.

(Wind gusts)

sfcwind_mslp-bwx_mw

A MUCH cooler pattern will ensue over the course of the remainder of the week, with highs expected in the upper 60s to lower 70s across both Zones, with dew points in the 40s and even possibly 30s over the few days. It’s common with upper-level lows to produce cold-air funnels, even some graupel (looks like little pellets of hail) which we think are possible Tuesday into this weekend. Our next chance for precipitation looks to occur late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning first impacting Zone 4 as that upper-level low-pressure hovers over Michigan, bringing isolated to scattered storms. Zone 3 will have an isolated to scattered shower threat as well much of Wednesday. 

(Wednesday morning rain coverage)

refcmp-bwx_mw

Upper-level lows are very tricky, as they tend to hang around longer than expected, which could be the case going forward. Our confidence right now is average that it will be a mix of sunshine, clouds and scattered showers the majority of the week into the weekend across both Zones. Coverage right now is looking around 50% across the board. With that being said, these will not be all day rains or washouts…sunshine while likely mix-in between showers and clouds. Wind gusts will also range most likely between 20-30 mph around the back-side of this low pressure. Rainfall totals over the next 7 days look to be a little heavier across the eastern portions of Zones 4 and 3, with totals ranging from 1-2″ east not out of the question. 

(7 day rainfall totals – European model)

euro7day92616

Today’s Video (6 min):

Confidence and Risk:

  • Our confidence right now is high showers and clouds continue to push east across Zones 4 and 3 today, with ensuing sunshine later this evening.
  • Our confidence is high that much cooler temperatures will push in this week
  • Our confidence is average to high that wind gusts up to 30mph are possible this week
  • Our confidence is average that cold-air funnels and graupel are possible Tuesday-Saturday with this upper-level low 
  • Our confidence is average of scattered showers with a mix of sun and clouds from Tuesday into Saturday before the low finally pushes east into Sunday and early next week

Thanks for checking out today’s Zone 3/4 forecast update, stay-tuned in the coming days for more additional details!

Kirk.

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