#ILwx Zones 3/4 – HOT now, Cold Front Sunday, Fall-feel next week! K.

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Key Points: Friday, September 23 – early next week

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Good morning and thanks for checking out Friday’s Zone 3 and 4 forecast update! Starting things off, we have fairly muggy conditions throughout Zone 4, with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s, even some 70s in the western areas, with dew points in the upper 60s. Northern Zone 3 folks are in the mid to upper 60s as well, while folks in the central to south are in the low to mid 60s…dew points range from the low to mid 60s as well, so not much cooler. Our main focus starting off this Friday is some showers and thunderstorms moving through the western portions of Zone 4 that will likely linger until late morning before weakening around noon CDT. Here’s the latest regional radar loop across the area below.

(Latest regional radar loop)

codnexlab-2km-il-rad-ani24-201609231025-100-100-raw

Here’s how things look to be shaping up around 9am CDT this morning according to the HRRR model.

(Simulated radar around 9am CDT)

refcmp_uh001h-bwx_mw-1

As mentioned previously, things look to continue to weaken into late morning/early afternoon across Zone 4…cloud cover will be focused mainly across northern Zone 4 today. Meanwhile, Zone 3 folks will see plentiful sunshine and continued warm weather today.

(Today’s cloud cover)

hrrrmw_prec_cloud_012

Here’s the temperature outlook for today…as you can see, cloud cover has a big impact likely for folks in northern Zone 4…with highs still lingering in the 70s. However, the further south you go across Zone 4 and into Zone 3, mid to upper 80s…even some 90s are not out of the question today.

(Today’s high temperatures)

sfct-bwx_mw

There are a few forecast models that have some isolated showers in between some sun and clouds across Zones 4 and 3 tomorrow as seen below hanging around a front…but confidence of this right now is average to low. 

(Saturday possible isolated showers)

refcmp_uh001h-bwx_mw

Saturday will likely be similar to Friday, with cooler temps across northern Zone 4 and progressively warmer south throughout Illinois…highs in the mid to upper 80s expected. Some patchy dense fog may be possible across both Zones Saturday morning as seen below.

(Visibility map Saturday morning…note the darker reds and oranges indicating low visibility)mgweb_wrf_20160923-060000_anc_econus_f00300000_paviationvisibility_r4km

Our focus shifts to Sunday afternoon into the evening, where it looks like our cold front we have been mentioning for over week finally starts to push through. The GFS as shown below has the front start to push through both zones most likely during the morning to early afternoon hours from west to east across Illinois. The timing of this still needs a little fine-tuning, but our confidence right now is average and climbing. At this time, we are thinking showers and thunderstorms are at a 50-60% coverage as of right now, and are expecting around 0.5″ of rain as the cold front pushes through.

(Cold front location come Sunday)

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11

Both of the GFS and Euro have the front clearing Zones 4 and 3 by Tuesday morning…ushering in much cooler weather and drier conditions likely.

(Cold front pushing through into Monday evening)

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15

Much of next week looks drier and cooler…a welcome “feel of Fall” finally! Stay tuned for more details on that!

Today’s Video (5 min):

 

Confidence and Risk:

  • Our confidence is average to high that clouds and some showers persist across portions of northern Zone 4 today, while folks south and in Zone 3 stay warm and dry.
  • Our confidence is average to low right now of isolated showers across both Zones on Saturday
  • Our confidence is average for Saturday morning fog across the Zones
  • Our confidence is average right now on the timing of the cold front coming Sunday early afternoon into the evening, from west to east across both zones
  • Our confidence is average right now that around 0.5″ is possible as this cold front pushes through into Monday
  • Our confidence is average and climbing of much cooler weather and drier conditions next week

 

Thanks for stopping by today, make sure to stay tuned this weekend for additional updates!

-Kirk