#ILwx Zones 3/4 – Storms possible next few days, HOT…showers & storms poss late weekend into early next week

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Key Points – Short Term

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Good morning and thanks for stopping by for the latest Zones 3 and 4 forecast update on this terrific Thursday! Starting things off today, we have continued heavy rainfall across portions of southern MN, WI and northern IA. Rainfall rates in this area could be up to 2.5″ an hour…a flash flooding risk definitely will continue for these areas. Here’s the latest regional radar loop below. There does appear to be a cluster of storms in central IA that looks to be heading towards Illinois this morning, but our forecast models have it weakening by 8-9am CDT this morning. 

(Latest regional radar loop)

codnexlab-2km-il-rad-ani24-201609221035-100-100-raw

There is potential for portions of Zones 4 to get a little wet today, but so far the showers to our north are staying confined in Wisconsin and Iowa. Zones 3 and 4 should stay fairly dry and sunny today, with some mixed clouds…afternoon to overnight, there is some potential for some showers and storms across northern Zone 4 as seen below.

(Storm potential Thursday evening)

refcmp_uh001h-bwx_mw

Zone 3 today looks to stay hot and dry once again today, with temps in the mid to upper 80s…maybe even a few areas hitting the 90s. A lot of folks in Zone 4 today stay dry and warm as well today…folks in the north of Zone 4 could see continued cloud cover from this morning’s showers to the north and west. Here’s a good idea of how warm today will get below. Those same areas in northern Zone 4 could see cooler high temperatures today if cloud cover persists.

(Thursday high temps)

hrrrmw_sfc_temp_013

Moving towards Friday, there is potential for continued showers across portions of Zone 4 following along the famous 588 thickness line. Zones 3 should stay dry…confidence with this is average right now. Possibly northern Zone 3 could see a few showers but confidence is low.

(Storm potential Friday)

nammw_500_avort_033

Saturday looks warm, sunny and dry across both zones…some morning clouds are possible across northern Zones 4 where overnight storms could be passing through, so Saturday temps could be a little cooler up there.

(Saturday high temps)

nammw_sfc_temp_063

Our next opportunity for widespread showers and storms returns Sunday afternoon to the evening hours across Zones 3 and 4. Right now our confidence is average to low as to the timing and location of these storms…but they will need some fine-tuning going forward. 

(GFS model solution for Sunday)

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_15

Here’s rainfall totals through Sunday afternoon showing the potential for storms across Zones 4 over the next few days, with a more widespread coverage coming late weekend into early next week.

(Rainfall totals through Sunday)

nammw_prec_precacc_084

There is no question that over the next 5 days our Zones stay 10-15 degrees above normal…this pattern of continued heat has been quite impressive…there is no doubt about that. Where we thought a trough would start digging into early next week continues to waiver, so that’s something we are continuing to monitor.

(5 day average temperature anomaly)

gfs-ens_t2mamean_us_1

Today’s Video (4 min):

 

Confidence and Risk:

  • Our confidence is average right now of storms persisting in IL this morning from the ongoing storms in IA
  • Our confidence is average for overnight storms across Zones 4 into Friday morning
  • Our confidence is average for continued storm potential on Friday
  • Our confidence is average to high that Saturday remains dry, nice and hot
  • Our confidence is average to low of rainfall timing and locations Sunday into early next week