#ILwx Zone 3 and 4 Forecast: Strong to severe storms today? Nice weather most of this week, scattered showers possible. Kirk.

Home / Uncategorized / #ILwx Zone 3 and 4 Forecast: Strong to severe storms today? Nice weather most of this week, scattered showers possible. Kirk.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Good morning and thanks again for logging on for today’s Zone 3 and 4 zones forecast update! Another quiet start to the work-week today, with most areas staying clear and dry, with a little patchy fog out there this morning as well especially across Zone 3. High pressure continues to dominate our weather today, with temperatures starting off into the upper 50s to lower 60s, and dew points ranging in the 50s and lower 60s as well for most areas. Below is a regional satellite loop showing the quiet conditions.

(Latest regional sat loop)

codnexlab-2km-il-wv-ani24-201609191000-100-100-raw

Our next system of interest will be a cold front moving from NW to SE across our zones this evening into Tuesday morning. Here’s today’s severe weather risk area map below.

91916severeriskmap

Below is the simulated radar for around 7-8pm EDT, 6-7pm CDT this evening, which is when I first expect the storms to start impacting the northern portions of Zone 4. The main risks with these storms (which could be in the form of clusters or even supercells) will be large hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes. 

(Simulated radar 6-7pm CDT)

refcmp_uh001h-bwx_mw

Here’s how things look to be shaping up by 10pm EDT, 9pm CDT

(9pm CDT)

refcmp_uh001h-bwx_mw-1

These storms will be entering an area of dry air, so will likely continue to weaken moving into the overnight hours. We cannot rule out some scattered showers and storms along the front across Zone 3 early Tuesday morning, but coverage will likely be 30-40% at best. Here’s a look at the upper-level energy by around 4am CDT…so it’s not impossible for some of these storms to still have severe potential into early Tuesday morning across northern Zone 3. 

(Upper-level energy Tuesday morning…possible area for continuing storms)

nammw_500_avort_027

Tuesday looks like another nice day across Zones 3 and 4, with high pressure keeping things mostly dry and pleasant. We can’t rule out some scattered showers across mainly Zone 3, during the afternoon to evening hours with the weak cold front still hanging around. Coverage will be 20-30% at best, and not all areas will be impacted. Any remaining showers should weaken after sunset.

(Tuesday afternoon)

refcmp-bwx_mw

Shifting our focus to Wednesday, we could see some scattered showers during the morning hours across both Zones 3 and 4…here’s a simulated radar of around 7am EDT, 6am CDT. I wanted to note, however, that confidence with these showers is average to low right now so the details will need to be fine-tuned into tomorrow. 

(Wednesday morning)

refcmp-bwx_mw-1

We are still keeping an eye on another system that will impact mostly Zone 4 come Thursday into Friday with an approaching warm front from the west. Our confidence with timing and location of these showers is low right now, but it is worth mentioning 3-4 days out. For visibility, here’s what the latest NAM has for Thursday morning…the details still need some fine-tuning over the next day or two. 

(Thursday morning simuluated radar)

refcmp-bwx_mw-2

We are still keeping an eye on a large storm system that will impact the zones sometime late weekend into early next week which we have been mentioning for quite some time now. The system has slowed down a bit, but the GFS looks to want to bring in another cold front around Monday morning to the Zones, while the Euro model has it more Monday evening. We will keep you updated with the latest details on this in the coming days!

(GFS model next Monday morning)

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30

(Euro model Monday evening)

ecmwfued-conus-192-c-mslpthkpcp6_white

Confidence and Risk:

  • We have high confidence that most areas start nice and dry today, with some lingering patchy fog this morning that will hang around across Zones 4 and especially 3
  • Our confidence is average right now of strong to severe storms impacting portions of northern Zone 4 this evening along the cold front
  • Our confidence is average that these storms continue to push into Zone 3 into Tuesday morning
  • Our confidence is average to high that Tuesday stays pleasant and dry for most areas, but a scattered shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out during the afternoon to evening across both zones
  • Our confidence is average to low on showers Wednesday morning
  • Our confidence is average to high right now that Zones 3 and 4 will be impacted by another cold front late weekend to early next week, but our confidence is still low on the exact timing and location of this system

 

Thanks for checking out today’s Zone 3 and 4 update, stayed tuned this week for more details on showers and storms…have a wonderful week!

K.

Related Posts