Zone 2 Key Points
- Rain and some storms are entering zone 2 this morning from the west. While a lot of this is fading quickly, some heavier rain is moving into southwestern Michigan. The current rain and storms will continue moving in before completely moving out around mid-day. However, new rain and storms will develop after 1-2 pm this afternoon and become more scattered across the forecast area.
- Through the overnight hours, the storms will not only fade out but will also be moving out of the forecast area. While a couple stray showers or storms can’t be ruled out, an overall quiet overnight is expected. However, by 6-7 AM some models do suggest a new cluster of rain and storms forms near the IN/IL state line. While it currently looks like the main threats would be mostly south of the zone, the northern end of this cluster could impact very southern zone 2 Wednesday morning into early Wednesday afternoon.
WED 10 AM
- Threats from this complex would include strong winds, very heavy rain, and lightning.
- On Wednesday the cold front will be pushing south/southeast through the morning and afternoon. While southern portions of zone 2 could see some afternoon storms move through after 1-2 PM, it currently looks like the cold front will exit in time for the better rain chances to remain south.
- The cold front will move out of the forecast area Wednesday evening through the overnight. This will allow much cooler, drier air to work into the forecast area.
- While not everyone will get in on rainfall through the next 36-48 hours, places that get under a heavier storm could see rainfall accumulations rise pretty quick. While these will be hit and miss, some localized areas could see 3-4” of new rainfall over the next 36-48 hours!
- High pressure will dominate the weather late week through the weekend. This will allow very cool temperatures to remain in place through Saturday and dew points to fall into the mid-50’s!
Confidence and Risks
- Moderate to high confidence exists regarding afternoon rain and storms. Moderate to high confidence also exists regarding timing and placement of the storms.
- Lower confidence is placed in the overnight, early morning cluster of storms tonight into Wednesday. The main questions are when/where will the morning storms form. If these should come north, higher rainfall coverage Wednesday morning would be expected.
- High confidence exists Wednesday afternoon for rain and storms to develop along and ahead of the southward-progressing cold front. Although the front may be just far enough south the threat of storms in zone 2 will be far less.
- While some strong to perhaps a few severe storms will be possible Wednesday, I am not expecting any kind of organized severe weather. Main risks would be strong winds and heavy rainfall.
- Moderate confidence exists regarding new rainfall totals. While 3-4” of new rain will be possible locally, others will see very little to no rainfall.
- Very high confidence exists regarding the end of week/weekend cool down.