#INwx #OHwx #MIwx Mon. Zone 2 Forecast: Rain & Storm Chances Remain Through Mid-Week, A Cool Down Is Coming! JT.

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FORECAST VIDEO

ZONE 2 KEY POINTS

  • Scattered rain and storms will develop once again across zone 2 this afternoon. Best timing for development will be after 2-3 PM.

 

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TODAY 5 PM FORECAST RADAR

  • While storms will be hit and miss, some localized areas of heavy rain will be possible. Guidance suggests 1.5-2.5” of new rainfall will be possible locally. I do think with the high moisture content and storms that will be moving slow, isolated 3” + amounts are possible. In those places, flash flooding would become a concern!

 

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  • Isolated to scattered storms will become possible once again on Tuesday. Right now these look to develop after 1-2 PM across northern and western zone 2.

 

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TUESDAY 5 PM

  • Wednesday morning some showers or a storm may be ongoing across zone 2. However, better chances will come in the afternoon and evening as storms develop along a southward moving cold front.

 

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  • Behind that, high pressure is forecast to move in. This will allow temperatures to fall into the 70’s to end the week and dew points to fall into the 50’s!

 

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Risks and Confidence

  • Confidence and timing in rainfall/storms today is high. Confidence in the exact placement of the storms is low because they will be scattered in nature.
  • Confidence in localized areas of heavy rain are moderate to high as storm motion will be slow and atmospheric moisture content will be high. New localized rainfall totals of 1.5-2.5” will be possible with perhaps isolated areas of 3” +. The areas with isolated higher amounts could experience some flash flooding problems yet again today.
  • Confidence in some isolated strong to severe storms this afternoon/evening is moderate to slightly higher than moderate. However, a well-organized severe weather threat is not anticipated. The main risk would be damaging winds, but some hail reports or a brief tornado can’t be completely ruled out.
  • Moderate confidence exists in isolated to scattered storm coverage Tuesday afternoon/evening. However, only average confidence is placed in exact locations of new storm development.
  • Moderate to high confidence exists for scattered rain/storm development to occur along the cold front as it dives southward Wednesday afternoon.
  • Moderate to slightly above moderate confidence exists for the end of the week and into the weekend for cooler temperatures to build in.