ZONE 2 KEY POINTS
- Scattered rain and storms will develop once again across zone 2 this afternoon. Best timing for development will be after 2-3 PM.
TODAY 5 PM FORECAST RADAR
- While storms will be hit and miss, some localized areas of heavy rain will be possible. Guidance suggests 1.5-2.5” of new rainfall will be possible locally. I do think with the high moisture content and storms that will be moving slow, isolated 3” + amounts are possible. In those places, flash flooding would become a concern!
- Isolated to scattered storms will become possible once again on Tuesday. Right now these look to develop after 1-2 PM across northern and western zone 2.
TUESDAY 5 PM
- Wednesday morning some showers or a storm may be ongoing across zone 2. However, better chances will come in the afternoon and evening as storms develop along a southward moving cold front.
- Behind that, high pressure is forecast to move in. This will allow temperatures to fall into the 70’s to end the week and dew points to fall into the 50’s!
Risks and Confidence
- Confidence and timing in rainfall/storms today is high. Confidence in the exact placement of the storms is low because they will be scattered in nature.
- Confidence in localized areas of heavy rain are moderate to high as storm motion will be slow and atmospheric moisture content will be high. New localized rainfall totals of 1.5-2.5” will be possible with perhaps isolated areas of 3” +. The areas with isolated higher amounts could experience some flash flooding problems yet again today.
- Confidence in some isolated strong to severe storms this afternoon/evening is moderate to slightly higher than moderate. However, a well-organized severe weather threat is not anticipated. The main risk would be damaging winds, but some hail reports or a brief tornado can’t be completely ruled out.
- Moderate confidence exists in isolated to scattered storm coverage Tuesday afternoon/evening. However, only average confidence is placed in exact locations of new storm development.
- Moderate to high confidence exists for scattered rain/storm development to occur along the cold front as it dives southward Wednesday afternoon.
- Moderate to slightly above moderate confidence exists for the end of the week and into the weekend for cooler temperatures to build in.