#INwx #OHwx Fri. Zone 1 Forecast: Dry Time This Afternoon, Better Rain/Storm Chances Sat. & Sun. JT.

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FORECAST VIDEO

Zone 1 Key Points

  • A strong upper-level ridge will build slightly west to the northwest this evening. This feature and warm temperatures aloft will keep conditions dry this afternoon and evening once the initial morning precipitation moves out.

  • Rain and storm chances will increase once again on Saturday. Current thinking would place morning storms in western Indiana around 10-11 AM then move them northeast.

 

10am sat

SAT 10 AM

  • While there will be those initial storms Saturday morning, more storms will develop in the afternoon in an isolated to scattered manner. Afternoon storms look to develop across the forecast zone after 1-2 PM, then through the evening. These storms will be scattered in nature.

3pmsat

  • While some places will see little to no rain through Saturday night, other places could get a few inches. If you do get under one of the heavier thunderstorms 2.5-3.5” or so will be possible.

WRF

mgWeb_WRF_20160826-090000_AGrLk_ECONUS_F00470000_PgeneralTotalPrecip_R4km

  • Sunday the center of the upper-level ridge will be to the east. However, there will not be a lot of energy aloft Sunday afternoon/evening. So there is no real focal point for thunderstorm development. While daytime heating and instability will likely prove enough to spark some isolated to widely scattered rain/storms, I do believe many areas will remain dry.

 


sunday 8 pm

Sunday PM Spotty Storms

Risks and Confidence

  • Moderate to high confidence exists regarding a dry evening today.

  • Moderate to high confidence exists regarding morning rain/storms on Saturday. However, somewhat lower confidence is exuded in the north to south placement on the morning storms.

  • Higher confidence in localized heavy rainfall is shown through 48 hours.

  • With instability and high moisture content on Saturday, it is not out of the question that a severe warning is issued. However, confidence in organized severe weather is very low.

  • Higher confidence exists regarding more isolated to widely scattered storm coverage on Sunday.

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