Zone 1 Key Points
- Isolated to Scattered rain & storms redevelop from the I-70 area north closer to the cold front after 3-4 PM this afternoon. These will continue through the evening before fading out around dark.
- Another push of some isolated to scattered storms looks to move in across portions of zone 1 after 12-1 am Friday morning.
FRI 12 AM
- Isolated to scattered storms will develop across portions of zone one on Friday after 1-2 PM. This will be thanks to a cold front that will be in place just to the south and some leftover boundaries. Best placement for storms currently looks to be from Lafayette to Bloomington across central Indiana.
FRI 6 PM
- While I do think a lot of places will remain dry over the next 24-48 hours, areas that do get under a storm could pick up some heavy rain in a very short amount of time. Both the NAM 4 km and the RPM suggest isolated areas of 2.5-4” of new rainfall are possible locally through Saturday morning!
- Saturday rain chances will remain in the forecast across zone 1. However, there are still some questions regarding the exact timing and overall coverage.
Confidence and Risks
- Confidence in afternoon rain/storms is high. However, confidence is somewhat lower on overall coverage. Models are less aggressive with overall coverage across central Indiana this afternoon/evening. I wouldn’t be shocked to end up with somewhat higher coverage than anticipated.
- Confidence in strong to severe storms today is moderate. While the better ingredients that were in place yesterday will be to the east today, afternoon instability and high amounts of moisture could allow for some strong to severe storms to get going. The main risk would be strong winds, but I won’t rule out a tornado or two, especially farther east.
- Confidence in rain and storms overnight is moderate. Confidence in timing/placement of overnight storms is slightly less than moderate.
- High confidence exists regarding Friday’s storms and timing. More moderate confidence exists regarding the overall coverage.
- Moderate to high confidence is placed in rainfall totals over the next 36 hours. Models do seem persistent with localized areas of 2.5-4” of new rainfall. However, very low confidence is in place regarding exact locations.
- In the weekend forecast, I have average to perhaps slightly below average confidence. Especially on Saturday where the NAM suggest very little storm coverage, while the EURO would suggest 30-40% just across the IN/IL state line. Concerns arise that the Tropical Disturbance Invest 99L may cause models to underperform in the longer range.